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People have been proclaiming the death of silicon valley since the late 80s, when tech IPOs peaked in 1983, and the video game crash of 1983. But then silicon
by joefranklinsrs 8y ago
People have been proclaiming the death of silicon valley since the late 80s, when tech IPOs peaked in 1983, and the video game crash of 1983. But then silicon valley produced several more innovative booms - PC, internet, social, and mobile, making the local economy 1 trillion dollars and surpassing its cousin, LA economy. Whereas LA economy stagnated after the 90s after aerospace and manufacturing moved out, silicon valley kept its dynamism, innovativeness, and of course venture capital.
There are several hard-to-replicate formulas for silicon valley
1.) Money likes to stay in silicon valley: Other money is in silicon valley. Stanford, Berkeley, and Santa Clara university. Existing networks. Beautiful weather (26c today in san jose), low humidity. Gorgeous landscape. Great wine and michelin restaurants. World class cuisines in American, Japanese, French, Italian, Indian, Chinese, Vietnamese in Bay Area. Many activities to do year round.
Beaches, mountains, coastlines, deserts, and forests. Vibrant immigrations. Good infrastructure. Close proximity to Seattle, Las Vegas, Hawaii, and Los Angeles.
2.) Talents are already in silicon valley, and their million dollar houses are in silicon valley. Easy to interview with various companies when they are all near where you work and live. Safe neighborhoods. Engineers that you can meet one another in meetups. Existing networks.
3.) California is the 5th largest economy in the world. And Silicon Valley is the fastest growing economy within it. Lack of regulations to start a startup, raise money, sell to other states in US, which is the largest economy in the world and has the largest consumer market in the world - 1/3 of the world's consuming power. the next closest consumer market that shares the same language and culture is Japan at 1/3 of US's size. And US economy is fast growing, whereas Japan and China are stagnating.
4.) Inherited knowledge is in Silicon Valley. How to bootstrap better. How to invest better. How to run teams better. How to produce software better. How to innovate faster. Everyone knows a little bit of the piece of the puzzle, and have been practicing it for 40 years.
- adventured 8y agoThe most likely outcome is that Silicon Valley once again broadens geographically, rather than dies. It has been doing that in bursts basically since HP was founded in 1939. The YIMBY forces are not going to succeed in fundamentally changing San Francisco. They've been failing at that for two decades. Instead, the money and start-ups will push further out. When people talk about Silicon Valley today, they mean a much larger geographic area than what that would have meant just 30 years ago. 30 years from now, the name will have grown to encompass a far larger area.
- hexis 8y agoBright flight.
- dcposch 8y ago> They've been failing at that for two decades. This is a defeatist attitude. SF Yimby / SFBARF were started in 2014 and have been impressively successful since. They played a decisive role in the latest mayoral election, and SF now has a Yimby mayor. Change is possible. Apathy and disengagement from tech people and youth is v advantageous to incumbent Nimby constituencies. Those are mostly older, mostly homeowners or rent-control beneficiaries and therefore personally insulated from the housing crisis. They vote reliably, and there's no reason ppl with a more inclusive vision can't do the same! Step 1 is letting go of cynicism. Change in fact already happening. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=yimby https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=y...
- tormeh 8y ago>and China are stagnating I... What? Otherwise great comment.
- nojvek 8y agoChina is definitely not stagnating. In fact some parts of China may have started to eat SV lunch. China is already the hardware capital of the world. If they play their cards right, they could make a big dent in software as well. It’s a huge market, speaking the same language on the same currency. That’s exactly why YC wants to enter China.
- joejerryronnie 8y agoChinese tech is thriving but the overall economy is showing alarming signs of a massive slowdown and possible recession. Too much central planning, banks with bad balance sheets, and over extending into huge foreign infrastructure projects are placing an incredible amount of stress on the Chinese economy.
- csomar 8y agoSilicon Valley is not dying. It is the city (infrastructure) that has failed to grow SV. Instead, the prices went up. But people are suspicious of fast wealth. Usually synonymous with bubble. And Silicon Valley have already had one.