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Silicon Valley is changing, and its lead over other tech hubs narrowing
- arcticbull 8y agoAnd crazy immigration laws and policies aren’t helping much either. IMO it makes sense people are staying home and building their businesses instead of uprooting to a place they perceive doesn’t want them, both from an immigration and a housing cost perspective. This is the real cost of current rhetoric and discourse, and it takes time to manifest, but the change is happening. Many of my friends recently moved out of the Bay Area and back to their countries of origin instead of pursuing a green card, and I’m on the fence myself, for exactly these reasons. These are successful, connected people who’ve seen exits too. I believe those who would be successful in SV can be successful anywhere.
- smaug7 8y ago....that's what the article mentioned too...
- imrelaxed 8y agoI’m confused. There is almost no rhetoric against legal and/or qualified immigration, just the illegal kind.
- NTDF9 8y agoYou have no idea how this administration is systematically pushing family oriented tech people away by creating gridlocks in the legal immigration process.
- raverbashing 8y agoWell, big companies abusing the system certainly doesn't help. Having ceilings based on a % of company number of employees or some other mechanism would go a long way (or the chance of draw being related to their salary)
- NTDF9 8y ago>> Well, big companies abusing the system certainly doesn't help. They already have a legal requirement to pay prevailing wage before they can get a visa. That means at least six figures in the bay area. There are a few reasons Americans don't take these six figure jobs: 1. Don't want to live in California/too expensive 2. This is the more common reason: Americans don't do STEM much, cannot compete with internationals. Obviously not all Americans are incompetent but given the number of open positions in the bay area, there are just not enough of them. As an anecdote, my manager has had 2 open positions for 7 months now, paying $125k base + sign on + relocation + bonus + stock for a new grad. Guess how many we've filled after 7 months? A big fat zero. The only way our product would sustain is by hiring people. So we eventually ended up hiring an h1b Chinese guy who was very very smart and capable. Then, because legal immigration process is choked off, he still couldn't join after 4 months. So we just had him join an offshore satellite office and moved his projects there. If he plays his cards right, the project will grow and he will help us hire more in the offshore site. Does this sound good for America?
- scarface74 8y agoAs an anecdote, my manager has had 2 open positions for 7 months now, paying $125k base + sign on + relocation + bonus + stock for a new grad. Guess how many we've filled after 7 months? A big fat zero. Why would anyone move to California for $125K when they could live in one of 20 other major cities, make the same amount with a lower cost of living?
- jogjayr 8y agoGP didn't say $125k total comp. Counting sign-on, bonus, and stock, it could be as much as $200k total comp - for a new grad. Which other cities/industries pay that much? (outside of finance or law, at the top end)
- scarface74 8y agoWhat are the chances that the stock+bonus will be an extra $75K per year? Also, the stock and probably sign on bonus probably has a vesting period. What will be the future value of the stock? What if the project doesn’t go as planned and they let the potential employee go before the vesting period? Cash is king. Anything else shifts the risks away from the better capitalized corporation to the less capitalized potential employee.
- electic 8y agoYou're kidding? There is more and more rhetoric being spewed relating to the legal kind as well. There is even policy being enacted to drastically cut down or make it very hard to gain legal status by burying you with paperwork. Beyond immigration talk, the constant spewing of racism coming from the administrations is a clear signal that immigrants of different backgrounds are not wanted. To that end, they simply pack up and build their business and wealth elsewhere. We won't feel those effects right now but it will hit hard in a few years.
- weiming 8y ago> Beyond immigration talk, the constant spewing... Curious to see some examples cited.
- arcticbull 8y agohttps://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/04/06/politics/trump-mexico-rapists/index.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/04/06/poli... https://www.aclu-wa.org/pages/timeline-muslim-ban https://www.aclu-wa.org/pages/timeline-muslim-ban https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/01/11/politics/immigrants-shithole-countries-trump/index.html https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/01/11/politics/immigrants-shith... https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/537012/ https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/537012/ What more evidence do you need?
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- repolfx 8y agoI clicked the first link. I feel a strange need to show fairness to Trump here. The CNN headline is very misleading, it says "Trump basically called Mexicans rapists again" but then goes on to quote him and the quote doesn't contain any such statement. He doesn't even mention Mexicans. Rather he makes a general statement that women get raped a lot on the paths used for illegal immigration into the USA, a statement CNN actually agrees with according to their article: "Nobody is arguing that the trip from Central America to the US is easy or that women are not attacked or exploited on it. That is a well-documented problem, one that Trump brought up to bolster his own case for tougher immigration laws." Trump expressing concern about abuse of women on the paths used by illegal immigrants is an odd form of 'racism'.
- moultano 8y agoA few examples. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13769 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13769 https://www.theverge.com/2016/11/16/13653490/steve-bannon-trump-presidency-chief-strategist-breitbart-tech-visa https://www.theverge.com/2016/11/16/13653490/steve-bannon-tr... https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/28/tech-companies-h4-holders-brace-for-trump-administration-changes-to-h4-visas.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/28/tech-companies-h4-holders-br... https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/20/h-1b-visas-how-the-trump-administration-is-freaking-people-out/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/20/h-1b-visas-how-the-tr...
- pjc50 8y ago"Legal" immigrants face a rising endless treadmill of demand for proof, and can be made illegal by the stroke of a pen with no recourse.
- tanilama 8y agoNah, it is widely felt every immigrant is unwanted by the action of USCIS as of late. I don't mind long wait time, but I hate to live under fear and some bureaucrat's mercy and being assumed as job thieves.
- puranjay 8y agoAs a potential legal immigrant, I just don't want to take my labor to a country whose President doesn't respect or welcome me. Sure, the rhetoric might be against illegal immigration, but I'd rather just move to a country where Nazis aren't "fine people". The America brand has essentially been tainted.
- frockington 8y agoI don't understand this logic. You want to move to America, but you hate America. Why not just move elsewhere then? Is there something that America has that you can't find anywhere else?
- mfringel 8y agoIt appears that you have conflated "hating America" with "hating the current President and his policies". Can you say more about that?
- puranjay 8y agoThat's exactly what I meant: that I'd just take my labor elsewhere. I have no intention of immigrating to America in the near future; it will take someone like Obama in power again for me to think otherwise. There are other labor markets that are happy to put out the welcome mat for me The sad thing is that I studied in America for two years and can't reconcile the current rhetoric with the memories I had
- naravara 8y agoThere is no way you can be this gullible. There is absolutely rhetoric and action being taken against all immigrants. The "illegal" label is a canard, and being as how our immigration laws are largely arbitrary and nonsensical, not even a very logical one. Passports are being denied to US citizens and their documentation is being deemed invalid based on no evidence and no due process: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-administration-denying-passports-us-002901041.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-administration-denying-pass... Steve Bannon talks about how even legal immigrants from South Asia don't fit into America's "civic society" (whatever that means): https://boingboing.net/2016/11/17/steve-bannon-wants-to-deport-a.html https://boingboing.net/2016/11/17/steve-bannon-wants-to-depo... ICE reserves the right to detail and interrogate people about their immigration status as a matter of course, and their only rubric for "suspicion" is "person is Brown." http://www.witf.org/news/2018/07/how-racial-profiling-goes-unchecked-in-immigration-enforcement.php http://www.witf.org/news/2018/07/how-racial-profiling-goes-u...
- TheCoelacanth 8y ago"Chain migration", "extreme vetting", people legally seeking asylum are "gaming the system", "turn off the jobs and benefits magnet", "Massive demographic changes have been foisted upon the American people. And they’re changes that none of us ever voted for and most of us don’t like", "almost every student that comes over [from China] is a spy", we admit too many immigrants from "shitholes" If you haven't seen rhetoric against legal immigration, you haven't been paying attention.
- biocomputation 8y agoAnd to think that so much of the technology that makes this possible comes from the Valley itself! As a US citizen, the idea of being able to work anywhere is appealing. If your infra is everywhere, then I guess you could be anywhere too. That's the dream, right?
- shams93 8y agoYeah it's inevitable, think of when Google was founded, people were still on dialup and working remote was something only something for outside phone call sales people.
- raverbashing 8y agoWith good planning, maybe not dialup, but it is doable to work remotely with a not always on connection.
- Uberphallus 8y agoYeah, I've done remote work on dialup and my breaks heavily correlated with cvs commands.
- sergefaguet 8y agoanother major part of the problem is the entitled, defocused employee culture in silicon valley. generated by the fact that crazy talent competition ensures employees have a huge safety net in the form of big tech. i raise capital in silicon valley. but i do not want to hire people there. i hire amazing engineers in russia at a fraction of the cost and they: - are loyal instead of jumping to new shiny stuff at every opportunity. - have skin in the game - are focused on building products and not on things like "we need to hire more female engineers even though none are applying." and lifestyle-wise the bay area is just unpleasant. aggressive homeless people. abysmal dating environment. awful traffic. and of course the costs, taxes etc. top it all off. that being said in terms of concentration of smart people that one can connect with at a moment's notice, and in terms of fundraising, the Bay Area is absolutely unparalleled. my conclusion is to spend couple months a year there but live and hire elsewhere.
- chosenbreed 8y ago> and lifestyle-wise the bay area is just unpleasant. aggressive homeless people. abysmal dating environment. awful traffic. Mmm...could you elaborate on the abysmal dating environment? :-)
- linguae 8y agoI'm not the original poster, but I'll respond (disclaimer: I'm a single male, about to turn 30 in a few months, who lives near Silicon Valley): 1. Single men vastly outnumber single women in Silicon Valley due to the unfortunate gender demographics of the tech industry, making for a very competitive dating environment for single men. 2. Due to the Bay Area's high housing prices, single people living in the Bay Area who are not Bay Area natives tend to be highly-paid young professionals. These people tend to be driven, ambitious, and have very high dating standards. There's nothing wrong with having high standards, but it makes the dating scene more difficult since you have to work on meeting those standards in order to be successful with the dating scene. It seems like a man has to be in excellent physical shape, make a ton of money, and have the right pedigree in terms of degrees and credentials in order to be attractive in Silicon Valley since there are so many young professional single men in this area. 3. There's a big problem with "flaking" in the Bay Area, where some people have a bad habit of standing people up on dates and other social outings. This has happened to me, and it is very rude and inconsiderate, especially with the busy schedules that many people in Silicon Valley have, as well as the traffic. 4. This is probably my most controversial point, but despite the Bay Area's reputation as a politically progressive place, ethnic minorities seem to have a harder time dating than non-minorities. This matters to me since I'm black, a rarity in Silicon Valley. While the statistics on this page from OkCupid (https://theblog.okcupid.com/race-and-attraction-2009-2014-107dcbb4f060 https://theblog.okcupid.com/race-and-attraction-2009-2014-10...) are not confined to the Bay Area, based on my personal experience and on empirical research I've done by reading other sites regarding the dating scene in the Bay Area, it is a problem here. To be frank, while I enjoy Silicon Valley's career opportunities, the high cost of living and the difficulties I've experienced dating here make me want to research some alternatives, although as a lifelong Californian (but not a Bay Area native), I'm a bit apprehensive about leaving the state since I enjoy California's diversity and weather. I've thought about Tokyo, which I've lived before as an intern and absolutely loved, but it would be a massive cut in salary.
- malchow 8y agoI think this is fairly mistaken. As a share of the tech economy, SV is almost certainly declining. That's to be expected and embraced as labor economics evolve. That doesn't for a moment mean that northern California isn't still the place with the maximum idea flow. Three major things in SV that aren't declining: a) Intelligent risk capital being deployed by scientists and engineers, not MBAs b) Stanford c) Ambitious unmarried 20- and 30-somethings for whom quality of home life is very unimportant I'm not bullish on California politics. Single-party psuedo-progressive rule can, eventually, ruin the state by driving people away. But for density and quality of ideas, it seems to me that the gap between SV and elsewhere is as wide as it has ever been.
- SQL2219 8y agogood quote: ...it costs at least four times as much to base a startup in the Bay Area as it would in most other cities in America.
- philipodonnell 8y agoI expect it is also at least four times easier to raise capital in the Bay Area as it would in most other cities in America. These things have a way of evening out.
- fnbr 8y agoI would honestly expect it to be more than 10x easier. In Canada, the idea of raising a 2-3 million round is completely foreign, and in my city (Edmonton) the idea is absurd. I strongly suspect you could raise 10x more much easier in the Bay compared to Edmonton, making it worth it to have an office down there, even though the cost of SWEs is ~4x cheaper here.
- sanderjd 8y agoHonest question from a place of ignorance: why do you need an office there, rather than just extended stays in hotels and some rented conference space?
- fnbr 8y agoA lot of investors won't invest in companies that don't have large offices in the Bay. Investors also generally advise against having remote offices when you have less than 100 people. As a result, there's not really any reason that startups need offices there other than that it can be difficult to get investment if you're based elsewhere. EDIT: I shouldn't say "the Bay", but rather, "the Bay/LA/NYC/Seattle". I more mean "top tier startups cities" rather than strictly just the Bay, per se.
- yayana 8y agoExcessive capital raised to go with excessive expenses per widget and a higher density of other startups.. The Bay Area and anyone who bought this recent 4 times overpriced equity in it won't be pleased if these things have a way of evening out. Most of the interesting startups I've seen recently have a small office in the Bay Area to go with a preference for real operations in other cities. Probably an efficient way to raise money from VCs who apparently think Google maps is the tool for investments and yet not have to excrete rainbows to reach profitability.
- throwawaymanbot 8y agoAre all these silicon valley articles that state Silicon valley is over/done for etc paid for by Thiel or the Russians?? To say silicon valley is over/done for is just ridiculous!
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- sofon 8y agoI read the article, but I can't see how the title is supported. What is for example, the second largest tech hub and how narrow is silicon valley's lead over it. I would guess that the bay area if way way ahead of anywhere else (I don't like it, but it seems to be self apparent) and the lead is not narrow at all.
- TulliusCicero 8y agoI'd bet either NYC or Seattle is number two. I think Seattle comes closest in salaries thanks to the number of FAANG and similar companies with either HQ's or large branches (same time zone as California helps). NYC is probably number two as far as startup scenes.
- volkl48 8y agoNYC and Boston are #2 + 3 for VC funding. Seattle's a tiny fraction of either and not growing in that area. https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/03/the-extreme-geographic-inequality-of-high-tech-venture-capital/552026/ https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/03/the-extreme-geographic-... Obviously, that's only one measure of a tech scene, but I don't think Seattle's that large.
- TheCoelacanth 8y agoVC funding is an extremely narrow measure of a city's economy. Seattle (metro area) has Amazon and Microsoft's HQs. That alone is enough to give it a pretty large tech scene.
- sidr 8y agoYour article is titled "high tech" venture capital, but the Pitchbook data they use span all sectors. If you include biotech, then yes, Boston will be way up there. And New York is just a huge city and an economic hub, so there will be a bunch of entrepreneurial activity going on there. But if you take the more narrow view of "tech" as in computer-related things, I'd be surprised if New York or Boston were much ahead. And yes, as you mentioned, it's one measure of the tech scene. Seattle is Facebook's largest engineering presence outside of the Bay area. I think Google may have more engineers in New York right now, but that will not last - they're tripling their footprint in Seattle right now. It's one of the largest (non-Bay area) engineering offices for Uber and the largest for Lyft and Salesforce. And then there's MS and Amazon. I've looked for SWE and data science jobs in New York and Seattle and if you're not interested in FinTech, Seattle is the winner by a mile.
- 11thEarlOfMar 8y ago"Alameda and San Francisco counties also are seeing slower population growth. Existing residents left the region at their highest levels in seven years in 2017. International in-migration is compensating for the departures." [1] http://www.siliconvalleyoneworld.com/2018/03/25/new-census-data-silicon-valley-population-growth-slows/ http://www.siliconvalleyoneworld.com/2018/03/25/new-census-d...
- qubax 8y agoYesterday's more indepth discussion on the same topic from the economist. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17875803 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17875803
- aricz 8y agoThe LSD isn't working as intended?
- m23khan 8y agoSilicon Valley will remain to the IT industry what Wall Street is for the commerce. It is the peak, the absolute peak of humanity's IT pursuits. I am not American, nor live in US and never been or worked in/for Silicon Valley and yet this is how I feel about it. Sure, there are good times and bad times but just like wallstreet has remained global champion of the commercial world, so will SV. I have zero doubts about it.
- eerwrq 8y ago>Silicon Valley will remain to the IT industry what Wall Street is for the commerce. Yes, it will remain a metonym. > I am not American, nor live in US and never been or worked in/for Silicon Valley and yet this is how I feel about it. All that means is the area has done a good job of branding itself.
- engi_nerd 8y agoThis sounds like an article of faith. Do you really want to have faith in a place that is likely ephemeral? People once had this same degree of faith in the technology corridor of New Jersey.
- NTDF9 8y ago> People once had this same degree of faith in the technology corridor of New Jersey. Or a more sinister example: Detroit
- RestlessMind 8y ago> some think a recession might clear out some badly run companies and lower costs for the fitter survivors. I hope it doesn't strengthen AAGMF further by making acquisitions cheaper.