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My theory is that people are moving up to better jobs, after years of job training, education, and depressed demands, after 2008. Which would explain the low u

My theory is that people are moving up to better jobs, after years of job training, education, and depressed demands, after 2008. Which would explain the low unemployment rate. Thus even though the wages for some industries are stagnating/declining, people are moving to better job positions, and thus have more money to spend.

tootie 8y ago
Do you have data? That sounds like speculation. https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx
sharemywin 8y ago
Probably has nothing to do with all the credit consumers and businesses are running up: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/21/consumer-debt-is-set-to-reach-4-trillion-by-the-end-of-2018.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/21/consumer-debt-is-set-to-reac... https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/beware-the-mother-of-all-credit-bubbles/2018/06/08/940f467c-69af-11e8-9e38-24e693b38637_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2029cdea6184 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/beware-the-m...
- adventured 8y ago
  No in fact it doesn't. American households are in tremendous shape compared to many of their peers. The household debt burden is at a 15 1/2 year low (household debt as a share of disposable income). [1] Unlike the fake boom of 2004-2008, this one isn't built on a large expansion of household debt. Businesses have levered up some, however business profits are at an all-time high and debt accumulation began to decline in the most recent quarter (the tax changes + Fed rate policies should continue to push toward a decline; companies like Microsoft, Apple and others took on immense debt temporarily to use it to pay out profits to shareholders via debt rather than repatriate their cash at a high tax rate). In fact, the single most interesting thing about this economic expansion, is that we haven't seen a big increase in household debt accumulation vs income, compared to the prior three major expansions (late 1980s, mid to late 1990s, and mid 2000s). That either implies consumers are skittish about unnecessarily taking on debt (trauma from the great recession, very plausible), or there's another very big leg left in this expansion (which would be fueled by debt). "With personal disposable incomes at a $15.46 trillion annual rate in the quarter, the debt-to-income ratio dipped to 86%. That’s the lowest, by an admittedly small amount, since the fourth quarter of 2002. At the height of the credit bubble in 2008, debts topped at 116% of disposable income." Household debt service payments as a share of disposable income is extremely low, near the lows of the last 40 years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/households-in-best-position-to-handle-debt-in-nearly-16-years-2018-08-14 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/households-in-best-positio...

tootie 8y ago

Do you have data? That sounds like speculation. https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx

sharemywin 8y ago

Probably has nothing to do with all the credit consumers and businesses are running up: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/21/consumer-debt-is-set-to-reach-4-trillion-by-the-end-of-2018.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/21/consumer-debt-is-set-to-reac... https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/beware-the-mother-of-all-credit-bubbles/2018/06/08/940f467c-69af-11e8-9e38-24e693b38637_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2029cdea6184 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/beware-the-m...

adventured 8y ago
No in fact it doesn't. American households are in tremendous shape compared to many of their peers. The household debt burden is at a 15 1/2 year low (household debt as a share of disposable income). [1] Unlike the fake boom of 2004-2008, this one isn't built on a large expansion of household debt. Businesses have levered up some, however business profits are at an all-time high and debt accumulation began to decline in the most recent quarter (the tax changes + Fed rate policies should continue to push toward a decline; companies like Microsoft, Apple and others took on immense debt temporarily to use it to pay out profits to shareholders via debt rather than repatriate their cash at a high tax rate). In fact, the single most interesting thing about this economic expansion, is that we haven't seen a big increase in household debt accumulation vs income, compared to the prior three major expansions (late 1980s, mid to late 1990s, and mid 2000s). That either implies consumers are skittish about unnecessarily taking on debt (trauma from the great recession, very plausible), or there's another very big leg left in this expansion (which would be fueled by debt). "With personal disposable incomes at a $15.46 trillion annual rate in the quarter, the debt-to-income ratio dipped to 86%. That’s the lowest, by an admittedly small amount, since the fourth quarter of 2002. At the height of the credit bubble in 2008, debts topped at 116% of disposable income." Household debt service payments as a share of disposable income is extremely low, near the lows of the last 40 years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/households-in-best-position-to-handle-debt-in-nearly-16-years-2018-08-14 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/households-in-best-positio...