3 ms·
For those curious about the origin, the earliest source I have on hand is https://www.gwern.net/docs/cs/2003-ross.pdf https://www.gwern.net/docs/cs/2003-ross.pd
by gwern 8y ago
For those curious about the origin, the earliest source I have on hand is https://www.gwern.net/docs/cs/2003-ross.pdf https://www.gwern.net/docs/cs/2003-ross.pdf "5 Commandments [technology laws and rules of thumb]", Ross 2003, which attributes it to Moore in the 1990s who attributes it to Arthur Rock at an unspecified time:
> Sometimes Called Moore’s Second Law, because Moore first spoke of it publicly in the mid-1990s, we are calling it Rock’s Law because Moore himself attributes it to Arthur Rock, an early investor in Intel, who noted that the cost of semiconductor tools doubles every four years. By this logic, chip fabrication plants, or fabs, were supposed to cost $5 billion each by the late 1990s and $10 billion by now.
(I shamelessly call it Moore's second law to arrogate the prestige of the first law into its invocation, and because it's hard for me to remember 'Rock's law' - who's that? Plus it puts it in good company by making it an instance of Stigler's Law, which was not first described by Stigler and thus renders Stigler's law autological.)
- tedsanders 8y agoYes, I think I found the same in my searching. In my catalog of various Moore's Laws, I put it second, in the mid 90s: https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/6C8E98A1598D8D901E51FA311AC39463/S0883769415002997a.pdf/div-class-title-the-moore-s-law-span-class-italic-of-moore-s-laws-span-div.pdf https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/c...
- Dylan16807 8y agoThe difference between tool price doubling every time density doubles, and tool price doubling every time density quadruples, is pretty vast. Even though those two predictions resemble each other, I don't think it's fair to call them the same thing.