6 ms·

In the map of motherhood ages for married, college-educated women, there seems to be a band stretching from El Paso, through OK and KY, and ending in West Virgi

by lainga 8y ago

In the map of motherhood ages for married, college-educated women, there seems to be a band stretching from El Paso, through OK and KY, and ending in West Virginia, where the average age is much lower. It's strongest around the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. Is there a name for this region? It doesn't look like it coincides with any of the "belts" I am familiar with (Bible belt, Rust belt, Black belt, ...)

angersock 8y ago
Baby belt?
Domenic_S 8y ago
I see a map for married women, and one for college educated women, but not one for both. Which one are you looking at?
- lainga 8y ago
  You're right, I thought it was by 2 categories. It's just for married women.
danielvf 8y ago
What you are seeing is what's left of the Bible belt when you subtract out the heavily African American regions out. http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html That's my big gripe with the NYT article and charts - these would be considerably more informative if they were also broken down by race. As it is, the real story is incredibly blurred.
- nerdponx 8y ago
  That's the problem with trying to be too PC. If you try to pretend that race doesn't exist, you end up missing stuff.
  - spankalee 8y ago
    sigh. PC is _not_ about pretending that race doesn't exist.
- brailsafe 8y ago
  The opposite is true and I'm glad race is not part of it. These maps are visualising information about aspects of life and we can see where patterns emerge so we can ask questions. This is opposed to starting with perceptually legitimate categorical ways seperating people and working inwards, which isn't usually useful. "We need more discrimination" isn't a sentiment I can get behind.
- justin66 8y ago
  > That's my big gripe with the NYT article and charts - these would be considerably more informative if they were also broken down by race. As it is, the real story is incredibly blurred. You'd immediately have to double the number of graphics and do god knows what to the amount of text, and that's if you just did a very simplified racial breakdown. Better to leave an ethnic, racial, or religious breakdown (and they're all worth discussing) for a follow-up article.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - dragonwriter 8y ago
    > You'd immediately have to double the number of graphics Because there are only two races?
    - justin66 8y ago
      Yes, I wasn't presenting an imprecise estimate regarding the absolutely least interesting part of the argument in the interest of brevity and trusting the reader to work it out, or anything of the sort. There are only two races. That's precisely what I meant. Well put.
      - dragonwriter 8y ago
        > Yes, I wasn't presenting an imprecise estimate regarding the absolutely least interesting part of the argument in the interest of brevity and trusting the reader to work it out, or anything of the sort. In much the same way that I wasn't obliquely pointing out that your point was well made while underlining that read literally it was a significant underestimate of the added burden, or anything of the sort, I'm sure.
- bilbo0s 8y ago
  Why does race matter for calculating when married or college educated women have babies? Serious question. I'm genuinely wondering what it means in all of this?
  - frockington 8y ago
    Birthrates vary between races. In general, the more established a race is, the lower the birth rate. As an example, Somalian refugees have a higher than average birth rate
    - LyndsySimon 8y ago
      I get what you're saying, but that doesn't really meet either the scientific nor the popular definition of "race". Recent immigrants have higher birthrates than nth-generation descendants. I've not verified, but my initial assumption is that the less wealthy have higher birthrates than the more wealthy. This isn't really a matter of race, but one of economics and social norms.
      - frockington 8y ago
        I think we're in agreement. I think the difference is often tied to race due to the relative wealth of incoming immigrants compared to the population. I don't think there is some scientific "Because they are this race they will have more children" argument
  - fipple 8y ago
    21 year old black mothers are likely to be unmarried without college degrees. 21 year old white mothers are likely to be married and are likely to hold or someday hold a college degree. They’re two entirely different populations and scenarios which get jumbled together when you average them. Its like if you asked “what’s the average height of the most popular American Olympic athletes?” And found that the answer is 5 foot 6. Huh, they’re just like us? No, the gymnasts are 4 foot 8 and the swimmers are 6 foot 4.
    - 8y ago
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- Retric 8y ago
  Poverty is a much stronger link: http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_poverty.html http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_poverty.html Look at the blob in Arizona for example on Without a college degree vs poverty. So yes the south east black population clusters in similar areas as poverty but out west they look rather different.
cimmanom 8y ago
That looks like Appalachia plus a swath of the Deep South. It's a region with particularly deep poverty and challenges around education and health care.
teeray 8y ago
That's the shoreline of a prehistoric ocean: http://www.deepseanews.com/2012/06/how-presidential-elections-are-impacted-by-a-100-million-year-old-coastline/ http://www.deepseanews.com/2012/06/how-presidential-election...
fertilityrspctr 8y ago
I see at least three distinct populations here. First are the Mormons of Utah, south Idaho, and adjacent areas, which you missed. The big one is the Bible Belt minus the Black Belt, and also seems to be missing the Carolinas, maybe because they've had so much internal migration from the Northeast recently. El Paso and surrounding area is surely associated more with the Rio Grande Valley of far south Texas than either of these two areas -- a culturally distinct area of Tejanos and more recent Hispanic immigrants. I don't know what to attribute the area of lower-age married fertility in eastern CO + western KS to, or other scattered areas.
- throwawayjava 8y ago
  > I don't know what to attribute the area of lower-age married fertility in eastern CO + western KS to, or other scattered areas. I would lump in KS/eastern CO with OK and with Missouri minus KC/STL/JC. So three or four regions: * The bible belt - the black belt * Mormons * The lower midwest and "eastern west" (e.g., eastern CO but also maybe even to some extent parts of NV, the Dakotas, and the rural eastern partns of the PNW). Maybe this is two groups that sort of blend at their boundaries? No two places are exactly the same but that last grouping makes at least as much sense as the bible belt. IMO, at least. I'm not a demographer or anything, but I bet that you could explain some of the cultural differences between the bible belt and the lower midwest+eastern west in terms of historically dominant congregations/denominations of Christianity. (And also some other things, most notably slavery.)
spitfire 8y ago
Isn't that the bible belt?
LyndsySimon 8y ago
I don't know of a name for it off the top of my head, but it corresponds very closely with the migration flow of Scot, Irish, and German settlers from the late 18th Century through the early 20th Century. My ancestors (and my wife's) all arrived in Virginia. Over the course of several generations they gradually moved West - first into the Shenandoah Valley, then down through SW VA and into Kentucky and Tennessee. They arrived in Northern Arkansas from 1840 or so through 1900. This a common enough story that it's listed as a migratory group by Ancestry.com. It seems likely that what you're seeing here is a social norm among a discrete population with a mostly shared culture.
- jessaustin 8y ago
  Colin Woodard calls it the "Greater Appalachia nation-state". David Hackett Fischer calls it the "Borderlands folkway". I think I prefer Fischer's book, possibly because my father devoured that particular section and is still quite enthusiastic about it.
  - ScottBurson 8y ago
    Here's an article by Woodard with a map: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/urban-rural-united-states-regions-midterms.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/urban-rural-unite...

by lainga 8y ago

angersock 8y ago

Baby belt?

Domenic_S 8y ago

I see a map for married women, and one for college educated women, but not one for both. Which one are you looking at?

lainga 8y ago
You're right, I thought it was by 2 categories. It's just for married women.

danielvf 8y ago

What you are seeing is what's left of the Bible belt when you subtract out the heavily African American regions out. http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html That's my big gripe with the NYT article and charts - these would be considerably more informative if they were also broken down by race. As it is, the real story is incredibly blurred.

nerdponx 8y ago
That's the problem with trying to be too PC. If you try to pretend that race doesn't exist, you end up missing stuff.
- spankalee 8y ago
  sigh. PC is _not_ about pretending that race doesn't exist.
brailsafe 8y ago
The opposite is true and I'm glad race is not part of it. These maps are visualising information about aspects of life and we can see where patterns emerge so we can ask questions. This is opposed to starting with perceptually legitimate categorical ways seperating people and working inwards, which isn't usually useful. "We need more discrimination" isn't a sentiment I can get behind.
justin66 8y ago
> That's my big gripe with the NYT article and charts - these would be considerably more informative if they were also broken down by race. As it is, the real story is incredibly blurred. You'd immediately have to double the number of graphics and do god knows what to the amount of text, and that's if you just did a very simplified racial breakdown. Better to leave an ethnic, racial, or religious breakdown (and they're all worth discussing) for a follow-up article.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- dragonwriter 8y ago
  > You'd immediately have to double the number of graphics Because there are only two races?
  - justin66 8y ago
    Yes, I wasn't presenting an imprecise estimate regarding the absolutely least interesting part of the argument in the interest of brevity and trusting the reader to work it out, or anything of the sort. There are only two races. That's precisely what I meant. Well put.
    - dragonwriter 8y ago
      > Yes, I wasn't presenting an imprecise estimate regarding the absolutely least interesting part of the argument in the interest of brevity and trusting the reader to work it out, or anything of the sort. In much the same way that I wasn't obliquely pointing out that your point was well made while underlining that read literally it was a significant underestimate of the added burden, or anything of the sort, I'm sure.
bilbo0s 8y ago
Why does race matter for calculating when married or college educated women have babies? Serious question. I'm genuinely wondering what it means in all of this?
- frockington 8y ago
  Birthrates vary between races. In general, the more established a race is, the lower the birth rate. As an example, Somalian refugees have a higher than average birth rate
  - LyndsySimon 8y ago
    I get what you're saying, but that doesn't really meet either the scientific nor the popular definition of "race". Recent immigrants have higher birthrates than nth-generation descendants. I've not verified, but my initial assumption is that the less wealthy have higher birthrates than the more wealthy. This isn't really a matter of race, but one of economics and social norms.
    - frockington 8y ago
      I think we're in agreement. I think the difference is often tied to race due to the relative wealth of incoming immigrants compared to the population. I don't think there is some scientific "Because they are this race they will have more children" argument
- fipple 8y ago
  21 year old black mothers are likely to be unmarried without college degrees. 21 year old white mothers are likely to be married and are likely to hold or someday hold a college degree. They’re two entirely different populations and scenarios which get jumbled together when you average them. Its like if you asked “what’s the average height of the most popular American Olympic athletes?” And found that the answer is 5 foot 6. Huh, they’re just like us? No, the gymnasts are 4 foot 8 and the swimmers are 6 foot 4.
  - 8y ago
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
Retric 8y ago
Poverty is a much stronger link: http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_poverty.html http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_poverty.html Look at the blob in Arizona for example on Without a college degree vs poverty. So yes the south east black population clusters in similar areas as poverty but out west they look rather different.

cimmanom 8y ago

That looks like Appalachia plus a swath of the Deep South. It's a region with particularly deep poverty and challenges around education and health care.

teeray 8y ago

That's the shoreline of a prehistoric ocean: http://www.deepseanews.com/2012/06/how-presidential-elections-are-impacted-by-a-100-million-year-old-coastline/ http://www.deepseanews.com/2012/06/how-presidential-election...

fertilityrspctr 8y ago

I see at least three distinct populations here. First are the Mormons of Utah, south Idaho, and adjacent areas, which you missed. The big one is the Bible Belt minus the Black Belt, and also seems to be missing the Carolinas, maybe because they've had so much internal migration from the Northeast recently. El Paso and surrounding area is surely associated more with the Rio Grande Valley of far south Texas than either of these two areas -- a culturally distinct area of Tejanos and more recent Hispanic immigrants. I don't know what to attribute the area of lower-age married fertility in eastern CO + western KS to, or other scattered areas.

throwawayjava 8y ago
> I don't know what to attribute the area of lower-age married fertility in eastern CO + western KS to, or other scattered areas. I would lump in KS/eastern CO with OK and with Missouri minus KC/STL/JC. So three or four regions: * The bible belt - the black belt * Mormons * The lower midwest and "eastern west" (e.g., eastern CO but also maybe even to some extent parts of NV, the Dakotas, and the rural eastern partns of the PNW). Maybe this is two groups that sort of blend at their boundaries? No two places are exactly the same but that last grouping makes at least as much sense as the bible belt. IMO, at least. I'm not a demographer or anything, but I bet that you could explain some of the cultural differences between the bible belt and the lower midwest+eastern west in terms of historically dominant congregations/denominations of Christianity. (And also some other things, most notably slavery.)

spitfire 8y ago

Isn't that the bible belt?

LyndsySimon 8y ago

I don't know of a name for it off the top of my head, but it corresponds very closely with the migration flow of Scot, Irish, and German settlers from the late 18th Century through the early 20th Century. My ancestors (and my wife's) all arrived in Virginia. Over the course of several generations they gradually moved West - first into the Shenandoah Valley, then down through SW VA and into Kentucky and Tennessee. They arrived in Northern Arkansas from 1840 or so through 1900. This a common enough story that it's listed as a migratory group by Ancestry.com. It seems likely that what you're seeing here is a social norm among a discrete population with a mostly shared culture.

jessaustin 8y ago
Colin Woodard calls it the "Greater Appalachia nation-state". David Hackett Fischer calls it the "Borderlands folkway". I think I prefer Fischer's book, possibly because my father devoured that particular section and is still quite enthusiastic about it.
- ScottBurson 8y ago
  Here's an article by Woodard with a map: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/urban-rural-united-states-regions-midterms.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/urban-rural-unite...