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I agree computers will be able to drive much better than humans, and this transition will occur at some point--the question is, when? Is the 8 years mentioned i
by asr 16y ago
I agree computers will be able to drive much better than humans, and this transition will occur at some point--the question is, when? Is the 8 years mentioned in the article anywhere close to realistic? I don't think so.
Not only does the technology have to become better in the aggregate than humans, it has to become so much better there's aren't any crash situations where human drivers perform better. There also can't be many crash situations when the computer doesn't significantly outperform a human. Otherwise both public sentiment against the cars, and legal liability will be too great.
Imagine: whenever there's a software bug and an automated car crashes in any situation where a human might not have, the GoogleCar manufacturer will get sued, the local paper will write an article about how Google killed someone, etc. And then, once a year, there will be another story about how crashes are down 2%... that's a lot of lives saved, but which article do you think will get more attention? And do you think "our cars usually make driving safer, just not the night of October 10th when John was killed" will be a winning defense?
I can't wait for this technology, I think it really will deliver all the benefits the article mentions long-term. But it's a long way off (I hope I'm wrong). I give a lot of credit to Google for investing in it now--this is one of the things I read and think "don't be evil" is more than just marketing-speak.
- neilc 16y agoKeep in mind that there are already millions of lines of code running in modern cars. The worst-case failure mode of all that code would certainly result in loss of life, and legal liability on the part of the manufacturer/insurer/etc. So really the question is just how much automation we'll see in automobiles in the future, not if.
- joe_the_user 16y agoThe Toyota Pedal case certainly points towards liability demanding less code. If there was a automation feature that prevented accidents in 90% of the situations where a human would crash but caused an accident in a situation that was 10% as likely to occur as a human crash, the result would still huge liability since the manufacturer would "definitely" be at fault in the latter case.