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>that Turkey will not climb out of its hole until the country enacts major structural reforms that would undo many of Mr. Erdogan’s constraints. >Those would i

by Sol- 8y ago

>that Turkey will not climb out of its hole until the country enacts major structural reforms that would undo many of Mr. Erdogan’s constraints. >Those would include allowing a free press, an independent judiciary and returning powers to Parliament Not that it wouldn't be nice to see those reforms, but it seems like they just slipped that claim in without much justification. China does fine with an autocratic system, as do others. I'm just puzzled that this wishful thinking that economic prosperity is necessarily connected to political freedoms still persists. Would be nice it if were true, but doesn't seem so.

Tade0 8y ago
>I'm just puzzled that this wishful thinking that economic prosperity is necessarily connected to political freedoms still persists. China is doing well for now. In the long term it's going to suffer because the free flow of ideas is suppressed. And without that there's a double whammy of no innovation and learned helplessness. Most formerly communist countries suffer from this to an extent.
te_chris 8y ago
The idea is that political freedom begets, enables and protects economic freedom and subsequently entrepreurship and dynamism flows. I think it's generally accepted that the western democratic economies are more dynamic than those of more repressive states. I also think that China is a strange one. Based on my anecdotal experience, people seem quite free at a micro level in China and incredibly entrepreneurial and resourceful.
adventured 8y ago
> I'm just puzzled that this wishful thinking that economic prosperity is necessarily connected to political freedoms still persists. That's because it's true in ~188 out of 190 on-going instances where oil isn't involved. It's fair to say it's true 99% of the time. US, Canada, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Ireland, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Israel (this list keeps going) Versus what? China... and? Maybe Singapore, a tiny island nation. Denmark has nearly three times the GDP per capita of Saudi Arabia. Czech has four times the GDP per capita of Iran. That isn't going to change, if anything the disparity will increase between the liberal order and the authoritarian order. China is more of a historical one-off than anything. The US has at least 10x the GDP per capita of Cuba, and six times that of Russia. South Korea has ~15 times the GDP per capita of North Korea. Australia has 40 times the GDP per capita of Myanmar. The economic prosperity rankings are overwhelmingly dominated by nations that are more politically free than not. The least politically free nations tend to be hyper impoverished (again, with only a few exceptions for petro states). As such it's not wishful thinking, it's reality.
- yongjik 8y ago
  Your list contains a large number of West European nations, which had the fortune of... being in West Europe. I.e., the fact that they are wealthy and free are more likely explained by past history, rather than one causing the other. South Korea is an interesting case: it used to have a worse economy than NK, started rapid economic expansion while under a corrupt dictator, suffered through another, and could not really be called a "democratic" country until 90s. So maybe prosperity eventually causes democracy, but it's a slow process.
  - ax0ar 8y ago
    >the fact that they are wealthy and free are more likely explained by.. I'd add to this the exploitation of resources throughout the world
JumpCrisscross 8y ago
It’s less freedom than stability. Dictatorships are unstable. Governments are meant to be immortal; dictators are not. Investors aren’t fleeing Turkey’s autocracy. They’re fleeing Erdogan’s volatility. China balanced autocracy and stability. Xi has undone China’s term limit requirements, however, which makes me less optimistic going forward.

by Sol- 8y ago

Tade0 8y ago

>I'm just puzzled that this wishful thinking that economic prosperity is necessarily connected to political freedoms still persists. China is doing well for now. In the long term it's going to suffer because the free flow of ideas is suppressed. And without that there's a double whammy of no innovation and learned helplessness. Most formerly communist countries suffer from this to an extent.

te_chris 8y ago

The idea is that political freedom begets, enables and protects economic freedom and subsequently entrepreurship and dynamism flows. I think it's generally accepted that the western democratic economies are more dynamic than those of more repressive states. I also think that China is a strange one. Based on my anecdotal experience, people seem quite free at a micro level in China and incredibly entrepreneurial and resourceful.

adventured 8y ago

> I'm just puzzled that this wishful thinking that economic prosperity is necessarily connected to political freedoms still persists. That's because it's true in ~188 out of 190 on-going instances where oil isn't involved. It's fair to say it's true 99% of the time. US, Canada, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Ireland, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Israel (this list keeps going) Versus what? China... and? Maybe Singapore, a tiny island nation. Denmark has nearly three times the GDP per capita of Saudi Arabia. Czech has four times the GDP per capita of Iran. That isn't going to change, if anything the disparity will increase between the liberal order and the authoritarian order. China is more of a historical one-off than anything. The US has at least 10x the GDP per capita of Cuba, and six times that of Russia. South Korea has ~15 times the GDP per capita of North Korea. Australia has 40 times the GDP per capita of Myanmar. The economic prosperity rankings are overwhelmingly dominated by nations that are more politically free than not. The least politically free nations tend to be hyper impoverished (again, with only a few exceptions for petro states). As such it's not wishful thinking, it's reality.

yongjik 8y ago
Your list contains a large number of West European nations, which had the fortune of... being in West Europe. I.e., the fact that they are wealthy and free are more likely explained by past history, rather than one causing the other. South Korea is an interesting case: it used to have a worse economy than NK, started rapid economic expansion while under a corrupt dictator, suffered through another, and could not really be called a "democratic" country until 90s. So maybe prosperity eventually causes democracy, but it's a slow process.
- ax0ar 8y ago
  >the fact that they are wealthy and free are more likely explained by.. I'd add to this the exploitation of resources throughout the world

JumpCrisscross 8y ago

It’s less freedom than stability. Dictatorships are unstable. Governments are meant to be immortal; dictators are not. Investors aren’t fleeing Turkey’s autocracy. They’re fleeing Erdogan’s volatility. China balanced autocracy and stability. Xi has undone China’s term limit requirements, however, which makes me less optimistic going forward.