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Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

secabeen 8y ago
> Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? Yes, when comparing to other compact luxury sedans such as the BMW 3-series and the M-B C-Class, yes, they are at 50% market share. The question becomes, are they just selling cars to people who would have bought a car in that class, or are they selling to people who normally would have been in a lower class. Anecdotally, they're growing the class, as there's a lot of interest in the Model 3 from people who otherwise would have bought a Camry, Accord, Malibu, or other mid-grade sedan.
- ntsplnkv2 8y ago
  The Model 3's shipping though are essentially luxury models though, correct? Not the cheap one that would compete with a Camry, Accord, Malibu, all of which can be had for around 20k.
  - thefounder 8y ago
    Model 3 is supposed to be the cheap/basic version. Maybe a model 5 will be mid/luxury along with model S
- rconti 8y ago
  Yes, but it's also selling to a somewhat-rabid list of reservation holders against a BMW 3 series that is around 3 or 4 years into its model cycle, a not-as-attractive-as-previous-generation C class that's 2+ years into its model cycle... these things are never apples to apples but its particularly bad when you have a backlog of people champing at the bit to buy your car. And all for a $7500+ discount over 'true' MSRP which will begin to evaporate over the coming months (which was one reason we jumped on the 3 when we did, rather than waiting).
- cjhopman 8y ago
  In fact, on the call they said that the top 5 non-tesla cars being traded in for a tesla are: Toyota Prius BMW 3-series Honda Accord Honda Civic Nissan Leaf
luminiferous 8y ago
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-claims-are-flawed-2018-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-c... Tesla has a history of drawing misleading market share graphs by comparing its cars against cars that reasonably would be considered to be in different market segments. You would have to be pretty charitable to call the model 3 a mid-sized sedan, for example.
- secabeen 8y ago
  That's a good point. Putting the 3 against the 5 series and E-Class is not really fair to MB and BMW. The 3 should be going against the C-Class and the 3-series, and there it has the highest share, but not 50%.
  - barbegal 8y ago
    The Model 3 is up against the 3 Series and the C-Class.
- barbegal 8y ago
  The Model 3 is being categorised as a mid-size sedan by pretty much everyone. What is misleading is neglecting some other premium mid size sedans from the market [1] such as the Acura TLX and the Inifinit Q50. On top of that the premium mid size sedan market is only about 3% (by volume) of the total US auto industry so 50% market share in that category is still only 1.5% of the total market. [1] http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-q4-2017-premium-mid-sized-segment-2/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-q4-2017-premiu...
adventured 8y ago
Plausibly. For example BMW 3 + Audi A4 is only around 100,000 per year in the US combined. The Tesla skeptics have gone out of their way to try to ignore what a dramatic accomplishment selling so many Model 3's so quickly represents (and doing so at such an elevated price point). To top it off, the reviews keep coming in that several of the more ridiculous early manufacturing problems with the Model 3 have been fixed, such as panel alignment and seat comfort.
- gamblor956 8y ago
  Tesla sold fewer than 20,000 Model 3s in Q2. How is that an accomplishment? Tesla is also claiming 50% of an extremely niche segment. It's like someone bragging about having the top-selling book in the Historical Sci-Fi Alien Albinos category.

secabeen 8y ago

> Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? Yes, when comparing to other compact luxury sedans such as the BMW 3-series and the M-B C-Class, yes, they are at 50% market share. The question becomes, are they just selling cars to people who would have bought a car in that class, or are they selling to people who normally would have been in a lower class. Anecdotally, they're growing the class, as there's a lot of interest in the Model 3 from people who otherwise would have bought a Camry, Accord, Malibu, or other mid-grade sedan.

ntsplnkv2 8y ago
The Model 3's shipping though are essentially luxury models though, correct? Not the cheap one that would compete with a Camry, Accord, Malibu, all of which can be had for around 20k.
- thefounder 8y ago
  Model 3 is supposed to be the cheap/basic version. Maybe a model 5 will be mid/luxury along with model S
rconti 8y ago
Yes, but it's also selling to a somewhat-rabid list of reservation holders against a BMW 3 series that is around 3 or 4 years into its model cycle, a not-as-attractive-as-previous-generation C class that's 2+ years into its model cycle... these things are never apples to apples but its particularly bad when you have a backlog of people champing at the bit to buy your car. And all for a $7500+ discount over 'true' MSRP which will begin to evaporate over the coming months (which was one reason we jumped on the 3 when we did, rather than waiting).
cjhopman 8y ago
In fact, on the call they said that the top 5 non-tesla cars being traded in for a tesla are: Toyota Prius BMW 3-series Honda Accord Honda Civic Nissan Leaf

luminiferous 8y ago

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-claims-are-flawed-2018-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-c... Tesla has a history of drawing misleading market share graphs by comparing its cars against cars that reasonably would be considered to be in different market segments. You would have to be pretty charitable to call the model 3 a mid-sized sedan, for example.

secabeen 8y ago
That's a good point. Putting the 3 against the 5 series and E-Class is not really fair to MB and BMW. The 3 should be going against the C-Class and the 3-series, and there it has the highest share, but not 50%.
- barbegal 8y ago
  The Model 3 is up against the 3 Series and the C-Class.
barbegal 8y ago
The Model 3 is being categorised as a mid-size sedan by pretty much everyone. What is misleading is neglecting some other premium mid size sedans from the market [1] such as the Acura TLX and the Inifinit Q50. On top of that the premium mid size sedan market is only about 3% (by volume) of the total US auto industry so 50% market share in that category is still only 1.5% of the total market. [1] http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-q4-2017-premium-mid-sized-segment-2/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-q4-2017-premiu...

adventured 8y ago

Plausibly. For example BMW 3 + Audi A4 is only around 100,000 per year in the US combined. The Tesla skeptics have gone out of their way to try to ignore what a dramatic accomplishment selling so many Model 3's so quickly represents (and doing so at such an elevated price point). To top it off, the reviews keep coming in that several of the more ridiculous early manufacturing problems with the Model 3 have been fixed, such as panel alignment and seat comfort.

gamblor956 8y ago
Tesla sold fewer than 20,000 Model 3s in Q2. How is that an accomplishment? Tesla is also claiming 50% of an extremely niche segment. It's like someone bragging about having the top-selling book in the Historical Sci-Fi Alien Albinos category.