12 ms·

This is a super interesting article. Here are some interesting bits. - Miles driven per needed human intervention 2017, Waymo: ~5700; GM: ~1300; Nissan: ~250,

by pnloyd 8y ago

This is a super interesting article. Here are some interesting bits. - Miles driven per needed human intervention 2017, Waymo: ~5700; GM: ~1300; Nissan: ~250, everyone else sucks at around 100. - Tesla is not talked about at all, surprising considering Elon is constantly saying it's around the corner. - Waymo has an Uber / Lyft esque app that the customers testing it's pilot program are using. - Waymo's showing (not charging) prices similar to Lyft and Uber ($1.70/mile). An analyst thinks without paid drivers they could go as low as 70¢/mile, and only 35¢/mile by 2020. - Waymo is only testing is places with perfect weather. - Waymo plans on launching their first location for a ride hailing service by the end of 2018.

pythonaut_16 8y ago
I don't think Tesla is really considered a serious competitor in the self driving car industry by anyone besides Tesla. Which is probably fortunate for all the other players since all of the Autopilot issues get attributed mainly to Tesla rather than to self driving cars.
- rohit2412 8y ago
  Or regular public (non technical people). A few weeks ago I attended a meeting in a top 20 university where the head of a inter-disciplinary research department was discussing autonomous vehicles and funding. The first and only name he said was Tesla. Marketing affects anyone not knowledge in machine learning field.
  - ntsplnkv2 8y ago
    Waymo is largely unknown by the general public. Tesla and Uber are well known, largely because of negative incidents and marketing.
    - jgan96 8y ago
      You know what they say, there is no such thing as bad press.
    - BurningFrog 8y ago
      Google's self driving car's are quite well known. The "Waymo" name is not.
  - rcxdude 8y ago
    This is unusual. Almost everyone I have talked to in the field thinks Tesla is barking up the wrong tree entirely.
- kjksf 8y ago
  Talking about progress of various players in self-driving industry is like talking about Schrödinger's cat. They might or might not have made progress but we won't know until we open the box (i.e. until they launch commercially). No one has any real data about how Cruise compares to Uber compares to Ford compares to Audi compares to ... The only comparative data we have are yearly reports mandated by California. Tesla is not there because in 2017, the last year for which we have the data, Tesla did not test on public roads in California in fully autonomous mode so they didn't have to release those stats (https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/f965670d-6c03-46a9-9109-0c187adebbf2/Tesla.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID= https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/f965670d-6c03-46a9...). At the same time Tesla is taking this as seriously as one can and are working on making it work. From the DMV report: "As described above, Tesla analyzes data from billions of miles of driving received from our customer fleet via over-the-air (“OTA”) transmissions. We supplement this with data collected from testing of our engineering fleet in non-autonomous mode, and from autonomous testing that is done in other settings, including on public roads in various other locations around the world. Through all of this data, we are able to develop our self-driving system more efficiently than only by accumulating data from a limited number of autonomous vehicles tested in limited locations." Karpathy recently gave a talk about Tesla's progress: https://www.figure-eight.com/building-the-software-2-0-stack-by-andrej-karpathy-from-tesla/ https://www.figure-eight.com/building-the-software-2-0-stack...
tintor 8y ago
"Miles driven per needed human intervention ..." Driving in an urban environment is almost nothing like driving in the suburbs. These numbers not comparable for many reasons: - GM Cruise drives in high density San Francisco (city roads), while Waymo drives in low density Mountain View / Phoenix (incl. highways). [1] - GM Cruise is not optimizing to reduce driver interventions, as that can actually decrease safety (ie. drivers delaying the intervention) I work at GM Cruise. [1] https://medium.com/kylevogt/why-testing-self-driving-cars-in-sf-is-challenging-but-necessary-77dbe8345927 https://medium.com/kylevogt/why-testing-self-driving-cars-in...
- cromwellian 8y ago
  IF you rely on drivers being aware and able to intervene at any time, then you are creating a dangerous situation. Human beings can’t re engage and obtain situational awareness in emergencies.
  - dasil003 8y ago
    Yeah, one key question is whether there a loud alarm triggered for human intervention a few seconds before it's necessary or is it relying on the constant awareness of the human. I am skeptical that an acceptable answer is anywhere near being possible.
    - Fricken 8y ago
      Yeah, humans shouldn't be driving at all, but to get there, well, you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.
      - DoreenMichele 8y ago
        That's an expression I know as a former military wife that explains the need to accept training deaths. I have enormous difficulty with the idea that we really need to accept training deaths in self driving cars.
googlemyfomato 8y ago
So I've heard that weather was not compatible with driverless vehicles. However I haven't seen what happens when they are in heavy snow or rain. And, I'm sure I'm misunderstanding the problem but couldn't electric cars with a motor per wheel be able to detect a slipping or loss of traction in an individual tire and slow it down?
- abathur 8y ago
  I don't think it's as much about compatibility as it is about trying to focus effort on easiest cases first.
- Washuu 8y ago
  The issue is detecting the lines and edges of the road after it snows. Snow just makes it all an inconsistent white matte texture. Even human drivers have issues with it. Heavy rain at night time can obscure road features to both humans and cameras.
  - michaelchisari 8y ago
    If we did large infrastructure projects in the U.S. anymore, we could fit existing roads and highways with technology meant to communicate better with self-driving vehicles. Our existing road signage and markings were made for humans. Instead of training software to use them, why not add ones it can better understand?
    - Shivetya 8y ago
      We could simply mandate it that all "express" lane projects be marked to ease use of self driving cars. express lane is the new word for toll lanes. we could even convert HOV lanes to support self driving cars provided they are in that mode. the benefit is early adopters are more likely to pay for express lanes if that includes being able to go nearly hands free the whole drive and it is in a controlled environment with very limited access points. which brings up something else. how to communicate to others that a car is under the control of the onboard systems. we have DRLs and third brake lights. So something at both ends?
rictic 8y ago
As I understand it, the reason Tesla isn't in those stats is because they come from a California mandate for certain kinds of self driving car tests, and Tesla isn't doing those kinds of tests. (disclosure: I work at Google, but not on anything related to any of this, just follow SDC stuff as a hobby)
- skgoa 8y ago
  Correct. Car manufacturers and automotive suppliers are doing only very little testing of the kind that has to be reported in California, at least not in California. Those reported statistics are mostly marketing by Silly Valley companies.
CPLX 8y ago
Most of your bullet points are interesting and relevant. I have to take issue with the last one though. In any discussion of self-driving cars I've learned to completely and totally ignore all statements of the kind "X plans to launch Y at Z point in the future"
QML 8y ago
I wonder how low these self driving cars have to go price per mile to compete with fully mature public transportation systems. For example, since I live in the Bay Area, the cost of going from Berkeley to Walnut Creek via Bart is around $4 for 16 miles. This would correspond to $0.25 per mile to the $0.35 estimate in the article. Maybe I’m doing the wrong comparison: cars like these won’t be competing with rail lines but with last mile types like public buses. That would make more sense as I pay around $3 to go 2 miles in my city. Another thought: the city official, mentioned in the article, seemed enthusiastic in using cars for public transportation. It kind of reminds me of advent of cars when cities focused on building roads and highways instead of investing in public transportation systems. Perhaps the self driving aspect can be transferred to be used on busses? I don’t know whether cost of busses result mainly from labor, like cars, or some other factor.
- throwaway76543 8y ago
  Don't forget to take ride sharing into account. I'd be happy to be in a vanpool picking up a half dozen people as it drives into SF. Six people per vehicle makes even $1.70/mile cost competitive with BART.
  - ghaff 8y ago
    So why isn't that happening today? I suppose it sort of is with Line and Pool but surely $10-ish per hour for a driver can't make a huge difference for this sort of service--which is quite widely-used in other countries.
    - throwaway76543 8y ago
      It is happening today. We've always had some vanpool-ish type companies, though they haven't always been easy to work with. There are some startups trying to change that, like https://www.chariot.com/ https://www.chariot.com/ -- I've been keeping an eye on them and when they start operating along my commute line I will likely switch away from BART. The big problem with vanpools is scheduling. Everyone wants flexibility and smarter scheduling systems in a manner very similar to what uber has provided for individual rides.
tim333 8y ago
Waymo have been testing in bad weather but not having the public ride in those ones. I guess they are working on the easier stuff first https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-self-driving-michigan-testing/ https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-self-driving-michigan-test...

by pnloyd 8y ago

pythonaut_16 8y ago

I don't think Tesla is really considered a serious competitor in the self driving car industry by anyone besides Tesla. Which is probably fortunate for all the other players since all of the Autopilot issues get attributed mainly to Tesla rather than to self driving cars.

rohit2412 8y ago
Or regular public (non technical people). A few weeks ago I attended a meeting in a top 20 university where the head of a inter-disciplinary research department was discussing autonomous vehicles and funding. The first and only name he said was Tesla. Marketing affects anyone not knowledge in machine learning field.
- ntsplnkv2 8y ago
  Waymo is largely unknown by the general public. Tesla and Uber are well known, largely because of negative incidents and marketing.
  - jgan96 8y ago
    You know what they say, there is no such thing as bad press.
  - BurningFrog 8y ago
    Google's self driving car's are quite well known. The "Waymo" name is not.
- rcxdude 8y ago
  This is unusual. Almost everyone I have talked to in the field thinks Tesla is barking up the wrong tree entirely.
kjksf 8y ago
Talking about progress of various players in self-driving industry is like talking about Schrödinger's cat. They might or might not have made progress but we won't know until we open the box (i.e. until they launch commercially). No one has any real data about how Cruise compares to Uber compares to Ford compares to Audi compares to ... The only comparative data we have are yearly reports mandated by California. Tesla is not there because in 2017, the last year for which we have the data, Tesla did not test on public roads in California in fully autonomous mode so they didn't have to release those stats (https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/f965670d-6c03-46a9-9109-0c187adebbf2/Tesla.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID= https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/f965670d-6c03-46a9...). At the same time Tesla is taking this as seriously as one can and are working on making it work. From the DMV report: "As described above, Tesla analyzes data from billions of miles of driving received from our customer fleet via over-the-air (“OTA”) transmissions. We supplement this with data collected from testing of our engineering fleet in non-autonomous mode, and from autonomous testing that is done in other settings, including on public roads in various other locations around the world. Through all of this data, we are able to develop our self-driving system more efficiently than only by accumulating data from a limited number of autonomous vehicles tested in limited locations." Karpathy recently gave a talk about Tesla's progress: https://www.figure-eight.com/building-the-software-2-0-stack-by-andrej-karpathy-from-tesla/ https://www.figure-eight.com/building-the-software-2-0-stack...

tintor 8y ago

"Miles driven per needed human intervention ..." Driving in an urban environment is almost nothing like driving in the suburbs. These numbers not comparable for many reasons: - GM Cruise drives in high density San Francisco (city roads), while Waymo drives in low density Mountain View / Phoenix (incl. highways). [1] - GM Cruise is not optimizing to reduce driver interventions, as that can actually decrease safety (ie. drivers delaying the intervention) I work at GM Cruise. [1] https://medium.com/kylevogt/why-testing-self-driving-cars-in-sf-is-challenging-but-necessary-77dbe8345927 https://medium.com/kylevogt/why-testing-self-driving-cars-in...

cromwellian 8y ago
IF you rely on drivers being aware and able to intervene at any time, then you are creating a dangerous situation. Human beings can’t re engage and obtain situational awareness in emergencies.
- dasil003 8y ago
  Yeah, one key question is whether there a loud alarm triggered for human intervention a few seconds before it's necessary or is it relying on the constant awareness of the human. I am skeptical that an acceptable answer is anywhere near being possible.
  - Fricken 8y ago
    Yeah, humans shouldn't be driving at all, but to get there, well, you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.
    - DoreenMichele 8y ago
      That's an expression I know as a former military wife that explains the need to accept training deaths. I have enormous difficulty with the idea that we really need to accept training deaths in self driving cars.

googlemyfomato 8y ago

So I've heard that weather was not compatible with driverless vehicles. However I haven't seen what happens when they are in heavy snow or rain. And, I'm sure I'm misunderstanding the problem but couldn't electric cars with a motor per wheel be able to detect a slipping or loss of traction in an individual tire and slow it down?

abathur 8y ago
I don't think it's as much about compatibility as it is about trying to focus effort on easiest cases first.
Washuu 8y ago
The issue is detecting the lines and edges of the road after it snows. Snow just makes it all an inconsistent white matte texture. Even human drivers have issues with it. Heavy rain at night time can obscure road features to both humans and cameras.
- michaelchisari 8y ago
  If we did large infrastructure projects in the U.S. anymore, we could fit existing roads and highways with technology meant to communicate better with self-driving vehicles. Our existing road signage and markings were made for humans. Instead of training software to use them, why not add ones it can better understand?
  - Shivetya 8y ago
    We could simply mandate it that all "express" lane projects be marked to ease use of self driving cars. express lane is the new word for toll lanes. we could even convert HOV lanes to support self driving cars provided they are in that mode. the benefit is early adopters are more likely to pay for express lanes if that includes being able to go nearly hands free the whole drive and it is in a controlled environment with very limited access points. which brings up something else. how to communicate to others that a car is under the control of the onboard systems. we have DRLs and third brake lights. So something at both ends?

rictic 8y ago

As I understand it, the reason Tesla isn't in those stats is because they come from a California mandate for certain kinds of self driving car tests, and Tesla isn't doing those kinds of tests. (disclosure: I work at Google, but not on anything related to any of this, just follow SDC stuff as a hobby)

skgoa 8y ago
Correct. Car manufacturers and automotive suppliers are doing only very little testing of the kind that has to be reported in California, at least not in California. Those reported statistics are mostly marketing by Silly Valley companies.

CPLX 8y ago

Most of your bullet points are interesting and relevant. I have to take issue with the last one though. In any discussion of self-driving cars I've learned to completely and totally ignore all statements of the kind "X plans to launch Y at Z point in the future"

QML 8y ago

I wonder how low these self driving cars have to go price per mile to compete with fully mature public transportation systems. For example, since I live in the Bay Area, the cost of going from Berkeley to Walnut Creek via Bart is around $4 for 16 miles. This would correspond to $0.25 per mile to the $0.35 estimate in the article. Maybe I’m doing the wrong comparison: cars like these won’t be competing with rail lines but with last mile types like public buses. That would make more sense as I pay around $3 to go 2 miles in my city. Another thought: the city official, mentioned in the article, seemed enthusiastic in using cars for public transportation. It kind of reminds me of advent of cars when cities focused on building roads and highways instead of investing in public transportation systems. Perhaps the self driving aspect can be transferred to be used on busses? I don’t know whether cost of busses result mainly from labor, like cars, or some other factor.

throwaway76543 8y ago
Don't forget to take ride sharing into account. I'd be happy to be in a vanpool picking up a half dozen people as it drives into SF. Six people per vehicle makes even $1.70/mile cost competitive with BART.
- ghaff 8y ago
  So why isn't that happening today? I suppose it sort of is with Line and Pool but surely $10-ish per hour for a driver can't make a huge difference for this sort of service--which is quite widely-used in other countries.
  - throwaway76543 8y ago
    It is happening today. We've always had some vanpool-ish type companies, though they haven't always been easy to work with. There are some startups trying to change that, like https://www.chariot.com/ https://www.chariot.com/ -- I've been keeping an eye on them and when they start operating along my commute line I will likely switch away from BART. The big problem with vanpools is scheduling. Everyone wants flexibility and smarter scheduling systems in a manner very similar to what uber has provided for individual rides.

tim333 8y ago

Waymo have been testing in bad weather but not having the public ride in those ones. I guess they are working on the easier stuff first https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-self-driving-michigan-testing/ https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-self-driving-michigan-test...