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Verizon and Apple blew it on this one IMO. While the iPhone has been wildly successful by pretty much any metric, there is a not-small market segment that hasn'

Verizon and Apple blew it on this one IMO. While the iPhone has been wildly successful by pretty much any metric, there is a not-small market segment that hasn't picked up an iPhone solely because it is encumbered with AT&T. (I am one member of that group.) AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest. Instead, Android has made great strides. I'm not a gadget guy when it comes to my phone; I just want it to work and be easy to use and not frustrate me. So, I've played with the various releases of Android and have continued to hold out for an iPhone ... until 2.2. 2.2 is good enough for me, and best of all, Android appears to be gaining ground on the iPhone, and it isn't being crushed by Apple's thumb. It's tough to tell for sure, but if I'm not alone in all this, then when the iPhone finally does come out for Verizon, it could fall flat on its face. It just took too damned long and frustrated everyone that has been patient enough to wait for it for years.

brown9-2 16y ago
If Android is a huge seller, isn't Verizon one of the top carriers selling Android phones? So if Verizon has been losing out on potential iPhone sales for the past few months, aren't they also making up for it with increased Android sales?
- thaumaturgy 16y ago
  No. I think that until recently, the Android market and the iPhone markets had only a little overlap; there were relatively few people that had a perfectly equal inclination to purchase an iPhone or an Android device, assuming that both were available on their carrier-of-choice. Meanwhile, AT&T has continued to be one of the top complaints about the iPhone. [1] (This doesn't help Apple's image, BTW; if Apple is so concerned with the end-user experience, then why are they in bed with one of the most-hated companies in the U.S.?) In other words, Android has been a popular fall-back for people that wanted a solid smart phone without AT&T. Although Android has been doing very well for Verizon [2], I have no trouble imagining that Verizon has lost out on a sizable amount of business from the market segment that preferred the iPhone to Android. Android 2.2 came out just a couple of weeks ago; back in July, a Verizon iPhone could have been a big deal. Now that Android has finally caught up to the iPhone (IMO), I think the holdouts are going to start picking up Android devices, which is going to cost Apple, which has already fallen behind Android in terms of both growth and popularity. On the other hand, AT&T has been paying Apple by the metric ton for the exclusivity deal, so maybe that money has been worth the lost market share for Apple and they just don't give a shit. [1]: http://dvice.com/archives/2010/06/top-10-complain.php http://dvice.com/archives/2010/06/top-10-complain.php [2]: http://gigaom.com/2010/10/05/nielsen-android-surges-to-no-1-in-recent-sales/ http://gigaom.com/2010/10/05/nielsen-android-surges-to-no-1-... edit: I suspect that a lot of this comes down to some politics and personalities. Apple had to have pissed off Verizon a bit when they offered a hugely popular device, but only for Verizon's only real U.S. competitor; then Apple pissed off Google shortly after; then, not too much further along, we start to hear that Verizon and Google are getting real friendly with each-other, possibly in an "any enemy of my enemy is a friend of mine" way. Verizon's been happy to push Android real hard, Google's been happy to support Verizon, and the two of them together are certainly putting some hurt on Apple/AT&T. It just sucks that consumers are getting caught in the middle.
  - matwood 16y ago
    "It just sucks that consumers are getting caught in the middle." Yes and no. If the rumors are true, the original iPhone was offered to VZW and they wanted to do their standard load it with crapware, limit standard features and then charge the customer to get them later, etc... game. Apple refused and they ended up stalemating. That lead Apple to then Cingular (IIRC) who let Apple have all the control it wanted, and even gave them a cut of the subscription pie. VZW and others still put extra crap on phones [1], but at least it seems it's getting better. [1]http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2010/07/android-junkware.html http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2010/07/android-j...
    - thaumaturgy 16y ago
      Good point. Verizon's vcast was garbage, and they insisted on sticking it on everything for a while. (Maybe they still do.) Plus, they're still one of the worst carriers for causing consumers to bear data charges because they hit the center button on a phone. And then there was the time a few months back where one of my clients had a shiny new Android phone, and the manufacturer or carrier had replaced the Android mail application with their own -- which also happened to silently fail on outbound ssl connections.
- natrius 16y ago
  I switched from AT&T to Verizon for the original Droid back in November 2009. There probably aren't that many people like me, though.
  - jseifer 16y ago
    I did, too, and I still love the Droid. I do, occasionally, miss the iPhone's polish and camera but the Droid is really a great phone.
tptacek 16y ago
My guess is that there's a huge pent up demand among people who want an iPhone in theory, but not enough to switch carriers in practice. It's hard to believe that the iPhone could literally "fall on its face", as you say.
- heresy 16y ago
  The response to Android in markets where the iPhone isn't carrier hobbled like with AT&T is lukewarm, to say the least.
  - tptacek 16y ago
    It doesn't help that the carriers stole the goose that lays the golden egg by rebranding the phones; they'd be doing better if people were shopping for "Android" phones. But of course they aren't.
    - tvon 16y ago
      To makers, Android isn't a competitor to the iPhone, its the base upon which you build that competitor.
- thaumaturgy 16y ago
  > * [...] but not enough to switch carriers in practice.* Why? Switching carriers is a piece of cake these days. That's not a barrier at all.
  - tptacek 16y ago
    You just said you were a member of the group of people who wouldn't use the iPhone because it was "encumbered" with AT&T.
    - thaumaturgy 16y ago
      I read your comment as though you were saying that the process of switching carriers was the challenge, which is not what I was saying. If that's not what you meant, then I misinterpreted it. As for it being hard to imagine the iPhone falling flat ... well, I provided graphs and links to industry sites. I'm certainly not the only one seeing it turning out this way.
portman 16y ago
"AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year." Source? I thought Apple was still in the middle of their 5-year agreement. http://www.engadget.com/2010/05/10/confirmed-apple-and-atandt-signed-five-year-iphone-exclusivity-de/ http://www.engadget.com/2010/05/10/confirmed-apple-and-atand... http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex_brief.pdf http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex... http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex_Order.pdf http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex...
- thaumaturgy 16y ago
  You might be right. At the very least, the exclusivity does seem to officially still be in effect; looks like I got caught up in some speculations earlier this year. On the other hand, AT&T certainly is preparing for the loss of exclusivity [1], and we know that AT&T picked up exclusivity for the iPad, so it would make sense that they were opting to drop the iPhone deal while picking up the iPad (which is also what an AT&T insider that I know was saying quite a while back). [1]: http://www.intomobile.com/2010/09/21/att-iphone-exclusivity/ http://www.intomobile.com/2010/09/21/att-iphone-exclusivity/
- mattparcher 16y ago
  I agree with you, and thaumaturgy below — it’s clear that they signed a 5-year agreement. But as Engadget notes in your first reference, contracts can be canceled, amended, and breached in many ways, and the two companies have had a number of chances to renegotiate over the last three years, including when: - Apple adopted subsidized pricing soon after the first iPhone was released (to sell it at $399/8GB instead of $599) - AT&T’s serviced proved spotty and unreliable for many at times - the iPad was introduced with an optional AT&T 3G data plan So it’s hard to know if the agreement is still in place, or if it means enough to prevent Apple from pursuing the large Verizon customer base.
whalesalad 16y ago
Android has made great strides in market share, but that's about it. Have you used a Droid 2? They're loaded with bloatware now... it's like buying a Dell PC. My buddy keeps asking me, "How can I remove this stupid blockbuster app??" Keep in mind... Blockbuster just filed for Bankruptcy... http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2010/09/blockbuster-officially-going-bankrupt-for-really-real-this-time.ars http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2010/09/blockbuster-offici... Android is a joke. I love my Nexus One... but Apple is still delivering the best mobile experience. AT&T is without a doubt the only downside to the iPhone. While Apple is strong-arming carriers with insane sales and joyous fans, Android devices are getting worse and worse to try and make every little device unique. One has a 5mp camera, one has a 8mp camera, one has two LED's for flash, the other only has one, blah blah blah they're all the same! I have been vying for the Android underdog for too long now and I for one am VERY anxious to see the iPhone on CDMA, because I'll finally be able to get back to using a terrific platform on a solid network.
- thaumaturgy 16y ago
  > Android has made great strides in market share, but that's about it. That's about the whole of the argument, yes. :-) > Have you used a Droid 2? One of my techs got one a while back; one of my other techs got a Droid X just a couple of weeks ago. They both seem extremely happy with them. Several of my clients -- including those that aren't technically savvy -- also have Droid devices, and seem fairly satisfied with them. > They're loaded with bloatware now... it's like buying a Dell PC. That's a funny example to use, since Dells these days really aren't all that bad. They certainly are nowhere near as bad as, say, Acer. > Android is a joke. Eh. 32% of the people that bought a smart phone within six months prior to Jan 2010 - Aug 2010 seem to disagree. > ...but Apple is still delivering the best mobile experience. Before September of this year, I'd've agreed with you. Most people don't seem to care much about which device has which camera or how many LEDs there are for flash or what-have-you; that seems to be more a software developer complaint.
  - tptacek 16y ago
    What percentage of the 32% of people that bought a smart phone in that period had the option of buying an iPhone on their preferred carrier? How many people just go to their carrier's retail store and buy the phone they like best? Until the iPhone came out, that was how I bought my phones!
ary 16y ago
> It's tough to tell for sure, but if I'm not alone in all this, then when the iPhone finally does come out for Verizon, it could fall flat on its face. It just took too damned long and frustrated everyone that has been patient enough to wait for it for years. Reminds me of that old Mitch Hedberg joke, "You will either hate us or love us... or you'll think we're ok." Were you the kind of kid who had their Christmas morning ruined because you had to wait 364 days for it to happen? Everyone groaned when the AT&T exclusivity agreement was announced, but widely understood that it would be years before you could get the phone on another carrier. I'd argue that while it was a polarizing move, publicized exclusivity actually helped the sales of the iPhone. You either accepted that you'd have to use AT&T and got the phone regardless of the service, or you didn't. Anyone waiting with baited breath for a second carrier in the US was either ignorant, stupid, or both. The options were clear. Now that exclusivity is about to be over there is a second wave of adoption coming. Why? Because the things that made the phone worth buying to begin with are still there, and the only deal-breaker for most people is going away. Everyone who "needed" an iPhone already has one. Everyone who "likes" the iPhone is about to have it be an option. I would love to see the facts supporting your hypothesis that, "AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest." You're making assertions about the strategy for the next phase of one of the most popular consumer electronic devices ever, and you're backing them up with the word "should."
- thaumaturgy 16y ago
  While I'd love to continue this pointless debate with you, I think I must be too "ignorant, stupid, or both" to bother.
  - ary 16y ago
    Please don't concede things like that. I wouldn't have asked if I wasn't seriously interested in your reasoning.
    - thaumaturgy 16y ago

brown9-2 16y ago

If Android is a huge seller, isn't Verizon one of the top carriers selling Android phones? So if Verizon has been losing out on potential iPhone sales for the past few months, aren't they also making up for it with increased Android sales?

thaumaturgy 16y ago
No. I think that until recently, the Android market and the iPhone markets had only a little overlap; there were relatively few people that had a perfectly equal inclination to purchase an iPhone or an Android device, assuming that both were available on their carrier-of-choice. Meanwhile, AT&T has continued to be one of the top complaints about the iPhone. [1] (This doesn't help Apple's image, BTW; if Apple is so concerned with the end-user experience, then why are they in bed with one of the most-hated companies in the U.S.?) In other words, Android has been a popular fall-back for people that wanted a solid smart phone without AT&T. Although Android has been doing very well for Verizon [2], I have no trouble imagining that Verizon has lost out on a sizable amount of business from the market segment that preferred the iPhone to Android. Android 2.2 came out just a couple of weeks ago; back in July, a Verizon iPhone could have been a big deal. Now that Android has finally caught up to the iPhone (IMO), I think the holdouts are going to start picking up Android devices, which is going to cost Apple, which has already fallen behind Android in terms of both growth and popularity. On the other hand, AT&T has been paying Apple by the metric ton for the exclusivity deal, so maybe that money has been worth the lost market share for Apple and they just don't give a shit. [1]: http://dvice.com/archives/2010/06/top-10-complain.php http://dvice.com/archives/2010/06/top-10-complain.php [2]: http://gigaom.com/2010/10/05/nielsen-android-surges-to-no-1-in-recent-sales/ http://gigaom.com/2010/10/05/nielsen-android-surges-to-no-1-... edit: I suspect that a lot of this comes down to some politics and personalities. Apple had to have pissed off Verizon a bit when they offered a hugely popular device, but only for Verizon's only real U.S. competitor; then Apple pissed off Google shortly after; then, not too much further along, we start to hear that Verizon and Google are getting real friendly with each-other, possibly in an "any enemy of my enemy is a friend of mine" way. Verizon's been happy to push Android real hard, Google's been happy to support Verizon, and the two of them together are certainly putting some hurt on Apple/AT&T. It just sucks that consumers are getting caught in the middle.
- matwood 16y ago
  "It just sucks that consumers are getting caught in the middle." Yes and no. If the rumors are true, the original iPhone was offered to VZW and they wanted to do their standard load it with crapware, limit standard features and then charge the customer to get them later, etc... game. Apple refused and they ended up stalemating. That lead Apple to then Cingular (IIRC) who let Apple have all the control it wanted, and even gave them a cut of the subscription pie. VZW and others still put extra crap on phones [1], but at least it seems it's getting better. [1]http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2010/07/android-junkware.html http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2010/07/android-j...
  - thaumaturgy 16y ago
    Good point. Verizon's vcast was garbage, and they insisted on sticking it on everything for a while. (Maybe they still do.) Plus, they're still one of the worst carriers for causing consumers to bear data charges because they hit the center button on a phone. And then there was the time a few months back where one of my clients had a shiny new Android phone, and the manufacturer or carrier had replaced the Android mail application with their own -- which also happened to silently fail on outbound ssl connections.
natrius 16y ago
I switched from AT&T to Verizon for the original Droid back in November 2009. There probably aren't that many people like me, though.
- jseifer 16y ago
  I did, too, and I still love the Droid. I do, occasionally, miss the iPhone's polish and camera but the Droid is really a great phone.

tptacek 16y ago

My guess is that there's a huge pent up demand among people who want an iPhone in theory, but not enough to switch carriers in practice. It's hard to believe that the iPhone could literally "fall on its face", as you say.

heresy 16y ago
The response to Android in markets where the iPhone isn't carrier hobbled like with AT&T is lukewarm, to say the least.
- tptacek 16y ago
  It doesn't help that the carriers stole the goose that lays the golden egg by rebranding the phones; they'd be doing better if people were shopping for "Android" phones. But of course they aren't.
  - tvon 16y ago
    To makers, Android isn't a competitor to the iPhone, its the base upon which you build that competitor.
thaumaturgy 16y ago
> * [...] but not enough to switch carriers in practice.* Why? Switching carriers is a piece of cake these days. That's not a barrier at all.
- tptacek 16y ago
  You just said you were a member of the group of people who wouldn't use the iPhone because it was "encumbered" with AT&T.
  - thaumaturgy 16y ago
    I read your comment as though you were saying that the process of switching carriers was the challenge, which is not what I was saying. If that's not what you meant, then I misinterpreted it. As for it being hard to imagine the iPhone falling flat ... well, I provided graphs and links to industry sites. I'm certainly not the only one seeing it turning out this way.

portman 16y ago

"AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year." Source? I thought Apple was still in the middle of their 5-year agreement. http://www.engadget.com/2010/05/10/confirmed-apple-and-atandt-signed-five-year-iphone-exclusivity-de/ http://www.engadget.com/2010/05/10/confirmed-apple-and-atand... http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex_brief.pdf http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex... http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex_Order.pdf http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex...

thaumaturgy 16y ago
You might be right. At the very least, the exclusivity does seem to officially still be in effect; looks like I got caught up in some speculations earlier this year. On the other hand, AT&T certainly is preparing for the loss of exclusivity [1], and we know that AT&T picked up exclusivity for the iPad, so it would make sense that they were opting to drop the iPhone deal while picking up the iPad (which is also what an AT&T insider that I know was saying quite a while back). [1]: http://www.intomobile.com/2010/09/21/att-iphone-exclusivity/ http://www.intomobile.com/2010/09/21/att-iphone-exclusivity/
mattparcher 16y ago
I agree with you, and thaumaturgy below — it’s clear that they signed a 5-year agreement. But as Engadget notes in your first reference, contracts can be canceled, amended, and breached in many ways, and the two companies have had a number of chances to renegotiate over the last three years, including when: - Apple adopted subsidized pricing soon after the first iPhone was released (to sell it at $399/8GB instead of $599) - AT&T’s serviced proved spotty and unreliable for many at times - the iPad was introduced with an optional AT&T 3G data plan So it’s hard to know if the agreement is still in place, or if it means enough to prevent Apple from pursuing the large Verizon customer base.

whalesalad 16y ago

Android has made great strides in market share, but that's about it. Have you used a Droid 2? They're loaded with bloatware now... it's like buying a Dell PC. My buddy keeps asking me, "How can I remove this stupid blockbuster app??" Keep in mind... Blockbuster just filed for Bankruptcy... http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2010/09/blockbuster-officially-going-bankrupt-for-really-real-this-time.ars http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2010/09/blockbuster-offici... Android is a joke. I love my Nexus One... but Apple is still delivering the best mobile experience. AT&T is without a doubt the only downside to the iPhone. While Apple is strong-arming carriers with insane sales and joyous fans, Android devices are getting worse and worse to try and make every little device unique. One has a 5mp camera, one has a 8mp camera, one has two LED's for flash, the other only has one, blah blah blah they're all the same! I have been vying for the Android underdog for too long now and I for one am VERY anxious to see the iPhone on CDMA, because I'll finally be able to get back to using a terrific platform on a solid network.

thaumaturgy 16y ago
> Android has made great strides in market share, but that's about it. That's about the whole of the argument, yes. :-) > Have you used a Droid 2? One of my techs got one a while back; one of my other techs got a Droid X just a couple of weeks ago. They both seem extremely happy with them. Several of my clients -- including those that aren't technically savvy -- also have Droid devices, and seem fairly satisfied with them. > They're loaded with bloatware now... it's like buying a Dell PC. That's a funny example to use, since Dells these days really aren't all that bad. They certainly are nowhere near as bad as, say, Acer. > Android is a joke. Eh. 32% of the people that bought a smart phone within six months prior to Jan 2010 - Aug 2010 seem to disagree. > ...but Apple is still delivering the best mobile experience. Before September of this year, I'd've agreed with you. Most people don't seem to care much about which device has which camera or how many LEDs there are for flash or what-have-you; that seems to be more a software developer complaint.
- tptacek 16y ago
  What percentage of the 32% of people that bought a smart phone in that period had the option of buying an iPhone on their preferred carrier? How many people just go to their carrier's retail store and buy the phone they like best? Until the iPhone came out, that was how I bought my phones!

ary 16y ago

> It's tough to tell for sure, but if I'm not alone in all this, then when the iPhone finally does come out for Verizon, it could fall flat on its face. It just took too damned long and frustrated everyone that has been patient enough to wait for it for years. Reminds me of that old Mitch Hedberg joke, "You will either hate us or love us... or you'll think we're ok." Were you the kind of kid who had their Christmas morning ruined because you had to wait 364 days for it to happen? Everyone groaned when the AT&T exclusivity agreement was announced, but widely understood that it would be years before you could get the phone on another carrier. I'd argue that while it was a polarizing move, publicized exclusivity actually helped the sales of the iPhone. You either accepted that you'd have to use AT&T and got the phone regardless of the service, or you didn't. Anyone waiting with baited breath for a second carrier in the US was either ignorant, stupid, or both. The options were clear. Now that exclusivity is about to be over there is a second wave of adoption coming. Why? Because the things that made the phone worth buying to begin with are still there, and the only deal-breaker for most people is going away. Everyone who "needed" an iPhone already has one. Everyone who "likes" the iPhone is about to have it be an option. I would love to see the facts supporting your hypothesis that, "AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest." You're making assertions about the strategy for the next phase of one of the most popular consumer electronic devices ever, and you're backing them up with the word "should."

thaumaturgy 16y ago
While I'd love to continue this pointless debate with you, I think I must be too "ignorant, stupid, or both" to bother.
- ary 16y ago
  Please don't concede things like that. I wouldn't have asked if I wasn't seriously interested in your reasoning.
  - thaumaturgy 16y ago