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MH370 Was ‘Manipulated’ Off Course to Its End, Report Says
- vesrah 8y agoLink to actual report: http://mh370.mot.gov.my/MH370SafetyInvestigationReport.pdf http://mh370.mot.gov.my/MH370SafetyInvestigationReport.pdf
- web007 8y agoOffsite cache http://archive.is/bffia http://archive.is/bffia
- Bromskloss 8y agoDoes "manipulated" simply mean that something was turned off? This is what I can find in the report: > Although it cannot be conclusivel y ruled out that an aircraft or system malfunction was a cause, based on the limited evidence available, it is more likely that the loss of communication (VHF and HF communications, ACARS, SATCOM and Transponder) prior to the diversion is due to the system s being manually turned off or power interrupted to them or additionally in the case of VHF and HF, not used, whether with intent or otherwise. > Similarly, the recorded changes in the aircraft flight path following waypoint IGARI, heading back across peninsular Malaysia, turning south of Penang to the north -west and a subsequent turn towards the Southern Indian Ocean are difficult to attribute to any specific aircraft system failures. It is more likely that such manoeuvres are due to the systems being manipulated.
- everdev 8y agoManipulated = flown by hand The leading theory is that auto-pilot and other systems were disengaged and the craft flown to it's doom in a mass murder-suicide
- DonaldFisk 8y agoThe authors of the report couldn't find any reasons why either of the pilots, or anyone else on board, might do this though.
- everdev 8y agoYeah, it's a true mystery. The recovered wreckage seems to suggest a remote Indian Ocean crash site and I don't think there were any other plausible explanations for why the plane diverted so drastically from it's intended course outside of human intervention. Malfunctions haven't produced this type of diversion before or since.
- djerthro 8y agoMultiple dispositions possibly point to what is essentially unknowable. Why did the plane deviate from its course with no alarms? With multiple crew in the cabin, who among them would have missed the plane's course adjustment? Why did they miss the adjustment? If they didn't fail to notice it, did they cooperate, knowingly? If not, why were alternate communications not used? Were the people responsible incapacitated? If they were incapacitated, how did that go unnoticed in general, and cause further alarm, and alternate communications? Could there have been a threat of violence? Basically, what I'm driving at is that one might expect at least one stray cell phone call in distress while over land, even if abrupt and short, with no discernable information conveyed. Taking into account an air tight disappearance, it doesn't reflect the type of lone wolf depressive suicide like the European incident that crashed into the mountain. Other options include: botched hijacking that failed to ransom hostages; or sledgehammer as fly swatter, with possibly an entire plane destroyed to target an individual of interest, signs pointing to state actors.
- everdev 8y agoA few theories: 1. The pilot waited until they we're alone in the cockpit then disabled all communications and locked the door. Possibly with a fake story over the intercom that kept people unsuspicious until away from land (diverting around some bad weather, etc.) 2. The pilot killed the co-pilot and then diverted the plane, same as above. With a hijacking/ransom, the perps want to communicate, so I think that's out. State actors is the only other one that makes sense to me, but it's still a murder-suicide by human hand.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- comboy 8y agoI wonder when are we going to have some low resolution (good enough to spot a car) realtime recording of the full globe. I know it's tons of data but with some machine learning it should be possible to skip most of oceans forests and deserts (unless some unusual object appears in that area).
- casabarata 8y agoThe dream of the NSA. Seriously.. How is that a good idea? We get upset when FB gives away some data to an organization that ends up using it for running election campaigns. What will happen if every person, sitting in their backyard, on the balcony, playing outside etc. is being recorded 24/7?
- std_throwaway 8y agoYou can already track most people by their radio tracking devices.
- bronson 8y agoExcept when they're in Airplane Mode.
- chinathrow 8y agoAre we sure the device is 100% offline?
- grkvlt 8y agoYes.
- abhiminator 8y ago>realtime recording of the full globe The scale of infrastructure needed for something like that would be staggering. Important question is, for what purpose? Assuming it's the aviation safety domain we're talking about, I think improving aircraft connectivity to ground stations and enhancing real-time monitoring [0] would be a superior solution than to invest in array of video-recording infrastructure to keep tabs on the planet--this without even factoring in the privacy concerns that may arise out of continual recording and access to the said data. [0] https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-avoid-another-malaysia-flight-370-1405100436 https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-avoid-another-malaysia-f...
- m23khan 8y agoI hope the plane and remains of passengers are found during lifetime of the victim's families so they may have some closure to this tragic chapter.
- craftyguy 8y agoAt the risk of sounding insensitive, what closure do the families need at this point? Do some believe the passengers are all living on some island? The only closure I can think of is technical, learning how it crashed so it could be prevented in the future.
- nasredin 8y agoIIRC the planes now ping the satellite every 15 (or 5?) minutes instead of 60. So hopefuly the next time this happens the search area would be smaller.
- rootusrootus 8y agoSays in the article that it will be once per minute starting in 2021, with requirements tightening over time before then, starting this Fall.
- phyzome 8y agoI suppose since they were over the ocean, none of the passengers would have been able to make distress calls on cell phones.
- DmenshunlAnlsis 8y agoFrom the report, you’d seem to be totally on point. To ascertain the probability of making calls inside an aircraft from differentaltitudes, a reconstructed flight using a King Air 350 over the said area andduring the same time when the signal “hit” happened was carried out shortlyafter the disappearance of MH370. The flight was conducted from an altitudeof 24,000 ft with step descents every 4,000 ft until 8,000 ft. The next descentwas to 5,000 ft but at 1,000 ft interval. An expert from a Telco service providerconducted the test using three different brands of phone and relatedequipment that were carried on board the King Air 350. Test call will beautomatically answered by the server in the event of connectivity. In summary, during the tests, it was found that it was difficult to maintainsuccessful call connectivity above 8,000 ft. However, one brand of phonewas able to make a call at 20,000 ft. Only one cell phone service providerrecorded the highest call attempts using their 3G network above 8,000 ft.Two service providers could only provide connection below 8,000 ft. Earlier in the report the altitude was estimated to be between 24,000’ and 47,000’ so no cell would have worked.
- jamestimmins 8y agoIs there a technological limitation that makes constant location broadcasting infeasible somehow? I was very surprised that they're not constantly in location contact.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- klodolph 8y agoI found this article, which mentions MH370 specifically: https://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/29/why-we-still-cant-track-an-airplane.html https://www.cnbc.com/2014/12/29/why-we-still-cant-track-an-a... One of the nice things about ordinary transponders and secondary radar is that the information can be wired directly to traffic control for whoever controls the airspace. With a satellite feed, you have to deal with the fact that you’re introducing a completely new system (satellites and their associated ground links), and you have to deploy enough satellites to cover the globe which means a constellation of satellites which is expensive to deploy. This means that control of the satellites is in the hands of a small number of countries or organizations with the funds to deploy them, which means that a critical piece of your aviation infrastructure is no longer in your country’s control. Reportedly, it’s also expensive.
- mcphage 8y ago> MH370’s cargo included 221 kilograms (487 pounds) of lithium batteries and 4.6 tons of fresh mangosteen fruit, according to its manifest. After extensive tests, Monday’s report ruled out smoke or fire caused by those goods mixing in the plane’s hold as a cause of the tragedy. Wait, what do the mangosteen fruit have to do with anything?
- timcederman 8y agoEthylene gas emission (which is flammable) or suffocating levels of CO2. https://www.reddit.com/r/MH370/comments/2176up/could_flammable_ethelyne_gas_or_suffocating_co2/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MH370/comments/2176up/could_flammab...
- NVRM 8y agoSugar + organic are combustible, huge quantity can feed a fire to an higher temp, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_candy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_candy
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- 1k 8y agoThey ran some tests and found that mangosteen juice can conduct electricity, but does not cause short circuit when in contact with the batteries
- mehrdadn 8y agoCould someone explain why the obvious explanation that "maybe they sweeped the right spots of the ocean, but at the wrong time" seems to go almost entirely unconsidered? i.e., I was always imagining what if the plane was in motion at the time they were sweeping so that they missed it?
- pjc50 8y agoSunk material tends to stay in the same place on the bottom. If it was floating we would expect it to wash up eventually.
- mehrdadn 8y agoHow long does it take to sink to the bottom though? My memory is hazy on the timing, but I seem to recall they started searching immediately (?), and I was thinking "what if it's still moving...?" at the time. (Edit: The ocean depth was around 4.5km.)
- mrguyorama 8y agoMy gut feel is that it would take far less than a day to sink to the bottom, especially as planes are not very buoyant. Since they were searching in entirely the wrong areas until a little while after the incident, when they got better data, I think it's safe to assume the wreckage was settled by the time they searched its area
- snowwrestler 8y agoAir France 447 (a very mysterious airplane disappearance prior to MH370) was found not far from its last known position in the Atlantic Ocean: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447#2011_search_and_recovery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447#2011_sea... In fact it seems the key decision in finding that wreckage was to include areas that had already been searched in a new analysis on where the wreckage was likely to be: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/527506/how-statisticians-found-air-france-flight-447-two-years-after-it-crashed-into-atlantic/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/527506/how-statisticians-...
- lbriner 8y agoI wondered why they didn't go for a mesh network where planes transmit location data over short wave to any other planes in the "area". They would only need to keep the data for a relatively short period of time before considering the data unneeded. Even in the Indian Ocean, there are usually planes within a few hundred miles that should be able to receive the broadcasts?
- dingaling 8y agoPartly because such events are so rare that such complexity wasn't even considered necessary. It would be designing for the literal one-in-100-million case. And partly because they already transmit ACARS, CPDLC and ADS-B over VHF SATCOM[0]. Why mesh when you can upload directly into the network and settle the bills cleanly with SITA. [0] and also CPDLC over HF
- eitland 8y agoFWIW ships do this. Many of you might know, but for some of you this might be your lucky day to learn about AIS : ) All passenger ships and most other commercial ships are required to have working AIS transmitters (the only exception I know of are fishing vessels while fishing - as to not be forced to shout out their exact location). AIS is picked up by other vessels, coast guard installations, military, a number of receivers in peoples homes and also on satellite (one example I'm familiar with: http://www.kystverket.no/en/EN_Maritime-Services/Reporting-and-Information-Services/Automatic-Identification-System-AIS/Satellite-based-AIS/ http://www.kystverket.no/en/EN_Maritime-Services/Reporting-a...) On https://www.marinetraffic.com/ https://www.marinetraffic.com/ you can watch ship traffic live, and they even have a program where they might give away free receivers. Source: I used to work with large scale radio and radar systems.
- booleandilemma 8y agoWe are unable to determine with any certainty the reasons that the aircraft diverted from its filed planned route,” Kok Soo Chon, chief inspector of the MH370 investigation team, told reporters in Putrajaya, outside Kuala Lumpur. “The possibility of intervention by a third party cannot be excluded.” Which 3rd party? And why? Did someone try to steal the plane, maybe?
- akhilcacharya 8y agoI paid close attention to the story when it broke and yes, stealing the plane was a running theory up until the Northern route was ruled out. The problem with this is that if it was stolen, there is zero plausible explanation for where or why it would be taken.
- coolspot 8y agoPopular conspiracy theory pushed by Russian state media is that MH370 [1] disappeared in March 2014 was then used for false flag operation as MH17 [2] in July 2014. Both are Boeing 777-200ER. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370 [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
- tpdrmd 8y agohttp://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/02/jeff-wise-mh370-theory.html http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/02/jeff-wise-mh370... this was published 3 years ago, but he came to a similar conclusion. really in depth dive as to the systems that could have been 'manipulated'
- jobigoud 8y agoQuestion: do they "retire" flight numbers after a crash? I keep seeing mentions of famous crashes by their flight number alone like MH370 or AF447.
- payne92 8y agoGenerally, yes -- they are retired. See: https://www.rhinocarhire.com/Car-Hire-Blog/July-2014/Retired-Flight-Numbers-Famous-Flight-Codes.aspx https://www.rhinocarhire.com/Car-Hire-Blog/July-2014/Retired...