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Didn’t Paul Tudor Jones overlay charts to predict the 87 Crash? Saw something like this in the Trader documentary: https://www.reddit.com/r/Documentaries/comm

Didn’t Paul Tudor Jones overlay charts to predict the 87 Crash? Saw something like this in the Trader documentary: https://www.reddit.com/r/Documentaries/comments/4cke1z/trader_the_documentary_1987_rare_documentary/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Documentaries/comments/4cke1z/trade...

pembrook 8y ago
I've seen that used to sell a lot of cheesy "online trading school" e-courses but I can't speak to whether that was what ultimately drove him to make the trade. This article seems to suggest Jones got the idea from a guy named Robert R. Prechter using Elliot Wave Theory: https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/business/13speculate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/business/13speculate.html Prechter called the '87 crash using wave theory, but he also called for "the end of the great bull market" in 1995. Which was 5 years too early (ie. flat out wrong). The lesson here is there's always somebody calling for the next collapse. When it inevitably happens each time, there's always a fresh stock of people you can point to who "called it." Whether this is genuine smarts or just random probability, is questionable.
- melling 8y ago
  Yes, i’m not sure how you’re suppose to use Elliot Waves but in the movie they compared charts to the Great Depression era.
- perl4ever 8y ago
  "Prechter called the '87 crash using wave theory, but he also called for "the end of the great bull market" in 1995. Which was 5 years too early (ie. flat out wrong)." He was in good company though - Greenspan's comment about "irrational exuberance" was in 1996, when the Nasdaq was around 1300 compared to its peak over 5000.
monitorman 8y ago
when you keep overlaying charts, eventually, one of them will be right.
- melling 8y ago
  Don’t spend your entire life being ignorant. When people are spending tens of millions of dollars on trades, maybe it’s worth asking if they know something you don’t.
lokedhs 8y ago
For every market event you are always going to find someone who predicted it. People predict everything at every point in time. Getting one prediction right doesn't prove anything. Getting a lot of them right also doesn't prove anything. No one has managed to show a streak of accurate predictions unless they silently purge their incorrect ones. Humans have a tendency to focus on the successes and ignore all the failures. It's in human nature and it's very hard to avoid it.

pembrook 8y ago

I've seen that used to sell a lot of cheesy "online trading school" e-courses but I can't speak to whether that was what ultimately drove him to make the trade. This article seems to suggest Jones got the idea from a guy named Robert R. Prechter using Elliot Wave Theory: https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/business/13speculate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/business/13speculate.html Prechter called the '87 crash using wave theory, but he also called for "the end of the great bull market" in 1995. Which was 5 years too early (ie. flat out wrong). The lesson here is there's always somebody calling for the next collapse. When it inevitably happens each time, there's always a fresh stock of people you can point to who "called it." Whether this is genuine smarts or just random probability, is questionable.

melling 8y ago
Yes, i’m not sure how you’re suppose to use Elliot Waves but in the movie they compared charts to the Great Depression era.
perl4ever 8y ago
"Prechter called the '87 crash using wave theory, but he also called for "the end of the great bull market" in 1995. Which was 5 years too early (ie. flat out wrong)." He was in good company though - Greenspan's comment about "irrational exuberance" was in 1996, when the Nasdaq was around 1300 compared to its peak over 5000.

monitorman 8y ago

when you keep overlaying charts, eventually, one of them will be right.

melling 8y ago
Don’t spend your entire life being ignorant. When people are spending tens of millions of dollars on trades, maybe it’s worth asking if they know something you don’t.

lokedhs 8y ago

For every market event you are always going to find someone who predicted it. People predict everything at every point in time. Getting one prediction right doesn't prove anything. Getting a lot of them right also doesn't prove anything. No one has managed to show a streak of accurate predictions unless they silently purge their incorrect ones. Humans have a tendency to focus on the successes and ignore all the failures. It's in human nature and it's very hard to avoid it.