4 ms·

Won't autonomous driving eliminate something like 80 to 90 percent of private vehicle ownership, which is well on the way to obsolete? Once people are less tie

by nugget 8y ago

Won't autonomous driving eliminate something like 80 to 90 percent of private vehicle ownership, which is well on the way to obsolete? Once people are less tied to private vehicle ownership and open to any effective form of transportation, then adoption of new technology could become easier.

simion314 8y ago
>Won't autonomous driving eliminate something like 80 to 90 percent of private vehicle ownership, which is well on the way to obsolete? We do not know that this will happen, people won't like using public cars. Also the number of cars is not important as the number of kilometers those car run, the companies will try the best to maximize the number of kilometers the cars will run to maximize the profits so we may have people using cars even more instead of walking or public transport
- jogjayr 8y ago
  > we may have people using cars even more instead of walking or public transport You're aware buses are large automobiles right? Lyft Line with self-driving cars is effectively a more nimble, efficient, usable, and cheap bus network.
  - simion314 8y ago
    Yes, can you assume so good faith from my part and let me know what part of my argument is not clear or what you disagree with. My point is that if we get cheap or convenient cars to drive us around then this would increase number of kilometers done by cars. About buses you have say 30 people using a bus and the bus is driving 10 km, if people would use cars and say they will be 3 people in a car you get 10 cars x 10 km = 100km, so you get 9 more vehicles on the road , you get the more energy consumed since a bus is not consuming 10 times more then a car.
    - jogjayr 8y ago
      My apologies, I'm a bit annoyed by comments everywhere on this discussion that don't count shared taxis as public transport. I wrote in another comment that without congestion pricing or aggressive expansion of HOV lanes, the efficiency gains of self-driving cars would not be realized. Even without that we'd still have the increased road safety gains. > About buses you have say 30 people using a bus The problem is that it's difficult to match transport demand and supply perfectly because the bus is such a large unit of transport. The more common scenario is a close-to-empty (off-peak times, unpopular routes) or bursting-at-the-seams (peak times, popular routes) vehicle. Because the self-driving car is a smaller, more granular unit of transportation, you can deliver more targeted supply to the places where there's demand, at the exact times when there's demand.
      - simion314 8y ago
        My question is that you think the number of cars on the road (not in garages) will drop or rise ? I think it will rise: - the people that afford expensive cars now(Tesla,BMW) will continue to own their own cars - people that can't drive now but have enough money will buy their own cars - some of the less rich people that own a car will keep using it - people that use buses would use the new taxis if their are cost effective So I think we will get more cars so we will have more energy consumed and we need better roads, better electric infrastructures that includes clean energy generation. About safety my personal opinion is that with current software and hardware we are far for self driving cars in general conditions, we could get this cars maybe to work safely on specific roads. I am also of the opinion that what Tesla is doing is wrong, aka here is auto pilot, it drives for you but you MUST still be 100% aware of the driving because you must intervene at any time, what advantages has this system ? -advantage 1 you don't use your hands and legs that much -no other safety that is not included in the driving asist packages from non self driving cars - autopilot makes many drivers behave illegally and don't pay attention, the PR shows the cazrs driving themselves where the small print in manual tells you to pay attention 100% of the time I think I understand your point, I am also frustrated by bad drivers that text, speed and kill people, I want them out of the roads too but it will not be easy to replace human inteligence, driving is a complex process and software and hardware is not there yet (I was an optimist like you about an year ago until the cases with Tesla hitting trucks, police cars and concrete obstacles happened and I read about the fact they have to ignore inputs because there are too many and the hardware is not good enough to process it) maybe Google cars have better sensors,hardware and software and can bring the optimism back for me.
ghaff 8y ago
Probably only in areas where parking of personal vehicles is expensive and in situations where people don't care about customizing vehicles/storing things in them. Most of the cost of a vehicle is typically miles, not time, at least if you buy them and eventually sell/trade them in. I live near a major city(though not in it) and I can't imagine getting rid of a personally owned vehicle.
- jellicle 8y ago
  No one in this thread can imagine getting rid of their personal vehicle; each and every one thinks that everyone else is going to get rid of THEIR personal vehicle, freeing ME to drive fast anywhere with no traffic. It's some kind of narcissistic tragedy of the intellectual commons.
  - erobbins 8y ago
    That's sort of true. I'm not giving up my car until government goons with guns show up to forcibly take it.
  - jogjayr 8y ago
    Ok let me unburden you. I can't wait to get rid of my personal vehicle if a comparable SDC alternative exists. I'd be very much in support of congestion taxes, carbon taxes, and expanded HOV lanes, however.
  - sand500 8y ago
    How about everyone that doesn't own a car and just uses ride sharing? I imagine the low hanging fruit for car owners to embrace self driving cars is rush hour traffic. Commuter busses are already a thing, now add in the convenience going straight from your house to work. Once people stop commuting with cars, they may find out that owning a car is no longer with it
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
muhbags 8y ago
I don't really get this argument. People will still want to own their own car to use whenever and whereever they want. If one currently owns a car, I don't see that this would change just because one doesn't have to drive anymore. Cutting out the middleman (i.e. the company that wants to profit off of the ownership of the self driving car) should always be cheaper given enough usage. It's the same currently with owning a car vs Uber, Lyft or taking cabs etc.

by nugget 8y ago

simion314 8y ago

>Won't autonomous driving eliminate something like 80 to 90 percent of private vehicle ownership, which is well on the way to obsolete? We do not know that this will happen, people won't like using public cars. Also the number of cars is not important as the number of kilometers those car run, the companies will try the best to maximize the number of kilometers the cars will run to maximize the profits so we may have people using cars even more instead of walking or public transport

jogjayr 8y ago
> we may have people using cars even more instead of walking or public transport You're aware buses are large automobiles right? Lyft Line with self-driving cars is effectively a more nimble, efficient, usable, and cheap bus network.
- simion314 8y ago
  Yes, can you assume so good faith from my part and let me know what part of my argument is not clear or what you disagree with. My point is that if we get cheap or convenient cars to drive us around then this would increase number of kilometers done by cars. About buses you have say 30 people using a bus and the bus is driving 10 km, if people would use cars and say they will be 3 people in a car you get 10 cars x 10 km = 100km, so you get 9 more vehicles on the road , you get the more energy consumed since a bus is not consuming 10 times more then a car.
  - jogjayr 8y ago
    My apologies, I'm a bit annoyed by comments everywhere on this discussion that don't count shared taxis as public transport. I wrote in another comment that without congestion pricing or aggressive expansion of HOV lanes, the efficiency gains of self-driving cars would not be realized. Even without that we'd still have the increased road safety gains. > About buses you have say 30 people using a bus The problem is that it's difficult to match transport demand and supply perfectly because the bus is such a large unit of transport. The more common scenario is a close-to-empty (off-peak times, unpopular routes) or bursting-at-the-seams (peak times, popular routes) vehicle. Because the self-driving car is a smaller, more granular unit of transportation, you can deliver more targeted supply to the places where there's demand, at the exact times when there's demand.
    - simion314 8y ago
      My question is that you think the number of cars on the road (not in garages) will drop or rise ? I think it will rise: - the people that afford expensive cars now(Tesla,BMW) will continue to own their own cars - people that can't drive now but have enough money will buy their own cars - some of the less rich people that own a car will keep using it - people that use buses would use the new taxis if their are cost effective So I think we will get more cars so we will have more energy consumed and we need better roads, better electric infrastructures that includes clean energy generation. About safety my personal opinion is that with current software and hardware we are far for self driving cars in general conditions, we could get this cars maybe to work safely on specific roads. I am also of the opinion that what Tesla is doing is wrong, aka here is auto pilot, it drives for you but you MUST still be 100% aware of the driving because you must intervene at any time, what advantages has this system ? -advantage 1 you don't use your hands and legs that much -no other safety that is not included in the driving asist packages from non self driving cars - autopilot makes many drivers behave illegally and don't pay attention, the PR shows the cazrs driving themselves where the small print in manual tells you to pay attention 100% of the time I think I understand your point, I am also frustrated by bad drivers that text, speed and kill people, I want them out of the roads too but it will not be easy to replace human inteligence, driving is a complex process and software and hardware is not there yet (I was an optimist like you about an year ago until the cases with Tesla hitting trucks, police cars and concrete obstacles happened and I read about the fact they have to ignore inputs because there are too many and the hardware is not good enough to process it) maybe Google cars have better sensors,hardware and software and can bring the optimism back for me.

ghaff 8y ago

Probably only in areas where parking of personal vehicles is expensive and in situations where people don't care about customizing vehicles/storing things in them. Most of the cost of a vehicle is typically miles, not time, at least if you buy them and eventually sell/trade them in. I live near a major city(though not in it) and I can't imagine getting rid of a personally owned vehicle.

jellicle 8y ago
No one in this thread can imagine getting rid of their personal vehicle; each and every one thinks that everyone else is going to get rid of THEIR personal vehicle, freeing ME to drive fast anywhere with no traffic. It's some kind of narcissistic tragedy of the intellectual commons.
- erobbins 8y ago
  That's sort of true. I'm not giving up my car until government goons with guns show up to forcibly take it.
- jogjayr 8y ago
  Ok let me unburden you. I can't wait to get rid of my personal vehicle if a comparable SDC alternative exists. I'd be very much in support of congestion taxes, carbon taxes, and expanded HOV lanes, however.
- sand500 8y ago
  How about everyone that doesn't own a car and just uses ride sharing? I imagine the low hanging fruit for car owners to embrace self driving cars is rush hour traffic. Commuter busses are already a thing, now add in the convenience going straight from your house to work. Once people stop commuting with cars, they may find out that owning a car is no longer with it
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

muhbags 8y ago

I don't really get this argument. People will still want to own their own car to use whenever and whereever they want. If one currently owns a car, I don't see that this would change just because one doesn't have to drive anymore. Cutting out the middleman (i.e. the company that wants to profit off of the ownership of the self driving car) should always be cheaper given enough usage. It's the same currently with owning a car vs Uber, Lyft or taking cabs etc.