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China's GDP is probably 10% of what they reported.

repolfx 8y ago
No, it seems to be the other way around. China's GDP figures are definitely false but likely to be inflated, not suppressed.
- xutopia 8y ago
  Can you explain why that is for the ignorant ones like me?
  - Harvey-Specter 8y ago
    A country might want to inflate their reported GDP to make the country look more attractive to foreign investment.
  - smacktoward 8y ago
    Because the statistics are produced by local apparatchiks, and the local apparatchiks all want their jurisdiction to look like it's breaking records so they can get promoted and become something bigger than a local apparatchik. And the central government wants to look successful too, so nobody there has any interest in pushing back. High numbers mean everybody in the system wins, while low numbers profit nobody, so the numbers come out high.
  - repolfx 8y ago
    Chinese GDP is suspiciously stable at exactly the same value for long periods of time, and doesn't seem to correlate with other statistics that usually do correlate, like electricity usage. IIRC it's not even a secret that China's GDP stats are useless. It's a problem the government has officially admitted to. As a sibling comment notes, the issue is that they aggregate stats from regional governors who are incentivised to tell the party what it wants to hear.
- Harvey-Specter 8y ago
  > China's GDP is probably 10% of what they reported. > other way around ... likely to be inflated, not suppressed. If their GDP is actually 10% of what they report, then the reports are inflated.
  - RussianCow 8y ago
    Edit: Never mind, I can't read. :) The comment you are replying to is suggesting that the actual figures are inflated, not the ones they report, meaning actual GDP is higher than reported GDP.
    - Harvey-Specter 8y ago
      That doesn't make any sense, and would be a really strange way to think about actual vs reported GDP. The actual (real, factual) number just is what it is. The only number that can be inflated/suppressed/fudged/faked is the reported number.
Balero 8y ago
Do you mean 10% higher? Surely you don't think China's GDP is one tenth of it's reported figure. This would have it sitting between Spain and Mexico [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...
seanmcdirmid 8y ago
China’s GDP is probably inflated, but not by that much. However, considering that any rise in real estate prices is considered GDP growth, a lot of the current GDP can be attributed to the current property bubble.

No, it seems to be the other way around. China's GDP figures are definitely false but likely to be inflated, not suppressed.

xutopia 8y ago
Can you explain why that is for the ignorant ones like me?
- Harvey-Specter 8y ago
  A country might want to inflate their reported GDP to make the country look more attractive to foreign investment.
- smacktoward 8y ago
  Because the statistics are produced by local apparatchiks, and the local apparatchiks all want their jurisdiction to look like it's breaking records so they can get promoted and become something bigger than a local apparatchik. And the central government wants to look successful too, so nobody there has any interest in pushing back. High numbers mean everybody in the system wins, while low numbers profit nobody, so the numbers come out high.
- repolfx 8y ago
  Chinese GDP is suspiciously stable at exactly the same value for long periods of time, and doesn't seem to correlate with other statistics that usually do correlate, like electricity usage. IIRC it's not even a secret that China's GDP stats are useless. It's a problem the government has officially admitted to. As a sibling comment notes, the issue is that they aggregate stats from regional governors who are incentivised to tell the party what it wants to hear.
Harvey-Specter 8y ago
> China's GDP is probably 10% of what they reported. > other way around ... likely to be inflated, not suppressed. If their GDP is actually 10% of what they report, then the reports are inflated.
- RussianCow 8y ago
  Edit: Never mind, I can't read. :) The comment you are replying to is suggesting that the actual figures are inflated, not the ones they report, meaning actual GDP is higher than reported GDP.
  - Harvey-Specter 8y ago
    That doesn't make any sense, and would be a really strange way to think about actual vs reported GDP. The actual (real, factual) number just is what it is. The only number that can be inflated/suppressed/fudged/faked is the reported number.

Balero 8y ago

Do you mean 10% higher? Surely you don't think China's GDP is one tenth of it's reported figure. This would have it sitting between Spain and Mexico [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...

seanmcdirmid 8y ago

China’s GDP is probably inflated, but not by that much. However, considering that any rise in real estate prices is considered GDP growth, a lot of the current GDP can be attributed to the current property bubble.