TL;DR: Talent (inputs) are normally distributed but wealth (outcomes) have a power law distribution. So talent doesn't determine wealth. What does? Luck. (They

TL;DR: Talent (inputs) are normally distributed but wealth (outcomes) have a power law distribution. So talent doesn't determine wealth. What does? Luck. (They do some simulations.) I wonder if they're measuring the right kind of input though. IQ is distributed in a bell curve but that is one input. There is hard work, common sense, ambition, and energy. I wonder if you have a multi dimensional bell curve as inputs, you may end up with a power distributed output (all the elements have to line up for success). Although, as someone pointed out, talent too is often a matter of luck.