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You appear to be making an effort to come off as intelligent and I thought you might like to know that your accusations of arrogance when your post drips with i
by User23 8y ago
You appear to be making an effort to come off as intelligent and I thought you might like to know that your accusations of arrogance when your post drips with it seriously undermines that.
You fail to grasp a fundamental reality: data about the past can only tell us about the past. Data about the present can be useful for making predictions. Some of it is so useful that using it is criminally prosecuted by the SEC.
By "naive" I mean any approach that relies solely on trends rather than an actual understanding of underlying causal factors. Sadly there are so many of those factors that a correct analysis is virtually impossible, but that's no excuse not to try since some factors tend to dominate others and those can sometimes be found.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/gurufocus_userupload/508204100.jpg https://s3.amazonaws.com/gurufocus_userupload/508204100.jpg
- slavik81 8y agoLess is more. Your third paragraph makes a strong argument and cuts right to the heart of the disagreement. The rest is a distraction.
- neverfone 8y agoYour third paragraph was enlightening and explained your position reasonably well. I'm not sure I'm convinced, but it seems like an interesting discussion. I feel obliged to downvote you because of the first two paragraphs, why did you add them? You were trying to refute what you considered an "accusation of arrogance" with the most arrogant opening paragraph possible?
- throwawaymath 8y agoI don't think this response should be getting downvoted; I'll upvote it for the third paragraph, which I largely agree with. We can agree to disagree on the exact definition of "virtually impossible", but in the broad strokes I think we're both saying some factor analysis can be sometimes productive. In particular, I definitely agree that 1) an "actual understanding of underlying causal factors" is imperative, and 2) an approach based on trends (and trend following) is naive.
- dang 8y agoOther commenters already pointed out the main thing, but I need to let you know that we ban accounts that include personal attacks in their comments, so could you please make sure not to do that? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html