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>Island became a magnet for the practice once miners figured out that the place is very cold and that electricity there -- geothermal and hydropower -- costs a

>Island became a magnet for the practice once miners figured out that the place is very cold and that electricity there -- geothermal and hydropower -- costs a lot less ... Issac Arthur speculates that Titan may become a center of cryogenic industry and computing in the late 21st century. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdpRxGjtCo0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdpRxGjtCo0 Given that immigrants tend to settle in places that resemble their home country, I wonder if Titan might develop an ex-pat Icelandic community? (Isolated. Rugged. Cold. Beautiful in a literal otherworldly sense.) If you're going to have a submersible data center, you probably want it to be a partially submersible spar buoy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spar_buoy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spar_buoy This gives you all of the benefits of submersion, but makes access easier. It also makes the installation immune to waves, especially rogue waves. So what else involves mooring lots of spar buoys off shore? Offshore wind farms.

ythn 8y ago
> Issac Arthur speculates that Titan may become a center of cryogenic industry and computing in the late 21st century. More like the late 31st century
- jstanley 8y ago
  At the start of the 20th century heavier-than-air flight wasn't possible. By the end of the 20th century we'd put people on the moon, and brought them back alive, multiple times. Inter-continental flight became so routine that it's not even notable. I wouldn't underestimate the rate of technological progress.
  - spraak 8y ago
    We don't know if it grows logarithmicly or exponentially, though
    - stcredzero 8y ago
      If we go by wealth generated and population supported, it would appear to go exponentially.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
    > By the end of the 20th century we'd put people on the moon, and brought them back alive multiple time ... I wouldn't underestimate the rate of technological progress. That was by 1972 (1). 46 years ago. Since then, no progress on this front. Not even a repeat. This is not an accelerating rate. 1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17
    - stcredzero 8y ago
      Not everything can be usefully measured with one easy metric, as in Moore's Law. In the case of something like colonization, the proper metrics are economic, not technological benchmarks. You could just as well cherry pick from The Age of Discovery, say from 1260 to 1360 and make the same statement: "X years ago. Since then, no progress on this front. Not even a repeat. This is not an accelerating rate." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Discovery#Medieval_travel_(1241%E2%80%931438) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Discovery#Medieval_trav... However, if you look at metrics of economic activity across spans 200, 400, and 600 years after that, you get a far different picture. So basically, your point is intellectually bankrupt. It's based on too little data and uses an entirely inadequate metric.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
        I was with you until "your point is intellectually bankrupt" which is unnecessarily insulting and also wrong. I would welcome a return to deep space, but there has been no progress towards it recently. The dates are correct. It might be true that this is not strong enough evidence against either, and that it still remains an open question if recent technological advances on Earth will translate into a return to space, but that's as far as it goes. There's nothing inevitable about it, it depends on what people want.
        stcredzero 8y ago
        I was with you until "your point is intellectually bankrupt" which is unnecessarily insulting This is part of being an intellectual: I can insult your point all day. That's perfectly fine. Taking that personally -- not good form. there has been no progress towards it recently. The dates are correct. If you were an alien observing earth from orbit, you could have made the same observation ("no progress towards it recently") about ocean going exploration at multiple points, prior to it changing history irrevocably and then exploding in economic and political importance. There's nothing inevitable about it, it depends on what people want. In that case, it's likely to happen.
  - marcosdumay 8y ago
    I wouldn't underestimate the uninterestingness of space either. People could probably place a datacenter at Titan today. But nobody will, and for good reasons. I don't have any narrative for why people will colonize space, but it will probably be done for sending people there, because exporting stuff for Earth isn't really reasonable.
- hourislate 8y ago
  If we had Nuclear Fusion and Androids, would it still take another 1000 years to seed the Solar System? I don't know, just asking...
  - jacobush 8y ago
    You'll probably have to ask the Androids.
- stcredzero 8y ago
  If it took only 250 years to go from outposts to the late 20th century US, I very much doubt it will take us 1000 years to a solar system-wide civilization as portrayed in The Expanse. If you subscribe to the exponential nature of civilization changes, then it becomes doubtful Homo sapiens will be around in 100 years!
  - elorant 8y ago
    On the other hand, it's fifty years since we went to Moon and in the meantime we haven't even set-up a tent there. We assume that we'll have the technology for deep space exploration but we tend to forget the logistics nightmare of any such endeavor.
    - stcredzero 8y ago
      On the other hand, it's fifty years since we went to Moon and in the meantime we haven't even set-up a tent there. In the early fits and starts of the exploration of Earth, there were multiple spans of 50 years where progress was seemingly abandoned and nothing happened. We assume that we'll have the technology for deep space exploration but we tend to forget the logistics nightmare of any such endeavor. Environmental technology will be harder than we thought at first, then we'll get the hang of it. Some people will die along the way. Then it will improve exponentially, as economic impetus comes into play.
      - GW150914 8y ago
        Environmental technology will be harder than we thought at first, then we'll get the hang of it. Some people will die along the way. Then it will improve exponentially, as economic impetus comes into play. Unless you know a lot that no one serious claims to know, then this is a statement of what you hope for and maybe personally believe, but for which no evidence exists. The sheer bulk of unknown unknowns in environmental tech, not to mention other assumptions you’ve been making about industry in space and more, are too numerous and prevalent to allow for confident statements either way. You may be right that humanity’s destiny is in the far reaches of the solar system, but it could go many other ways. Maybe we’ll die in the dirt, or maybe we’ll thrive in completely different ways. For all that you know, rather than personally wish to believe, our future may more closely resemble something like a Dyson Swarm constructed by drones rather than hurling ourselves into the dim and cold reaches of space. Maybe we’ll figure out a mutually amicable way to control population rates and make the Earth a Paradise, and leave space for robots. Who knows? Not me, not you. All of which is to say, please stop passing off something that is less than a hunch as an argument. The core of science is skepticism and a demand for evidence, while the core of pop science is an inverse relationship between knowledge and enthusiasm. Claiming to know what will happen in 50 years is a joke, in 100 years delusion, and in 1000 years religion. There are so many branches and twists and turns, both positive and negative and just plain unforeseen that futurism is crap.
jandrese 8y ago
> Issac Arthur speculates that Titan may become a center of cryogenic industry and computing in the late 21st century Who the hell wants to ship stuff 9AU plus or minus just to freeze it? Why not just build a sun shield in orbit with a bunch of black body radiators on the back? Or you know, use conventional refrigeration on Earth. Pretty much anything is better than shipping it out or back from Saturn.
- stcredzero 8y ago
  Who the hell wants to ship stuff 9AU plus or minus just to freeze it? No one. So if you're already out near Titan delta-V wise, Titan is the best place with lots of resources. Why not just build a sun shield in orbit with a bunch of black body radiators on the back? That would work. However, the cooling will be of much greater value if it's near other things of value. Or you know, use conventional refrigeration on Earth. Which will happen a lot, because there are lots of things of value on Earth. Pretty much anything is better than shipping it out or back from Saturn. If you're in the outer solar system, then pretty much anything is better than shipping it from Earth.
  - jandrese 8y ago
    If you are in the outer solar system you won't have trouble freezing anything. "Cyrogenic industry" is freezing stuff. In the outer solar system that is like trying to sell sand at the beach. It makes a lot more sense to talk about Titan as the gas station of the outer Solar System. Exporting methane for all of the rockets flying around doing stuff.
    - stcredzero 8y ago
      If you are in the outer solar system you won't have trouble freezing anything. It's not freezing things, it's cooling things which is key. At a random point in the outer solar system, to have a lot of cooling power, you need to build huge radiators. You need to supply coolant to flow through those radiators. On Titan, you just pump fluid from a lake. "Cyrogenic industry" is freezing stuff. Only in the simpleton view. Cryogenic industry is doing stuff that requires low temperatures. In the outer solar system that is like trying to sell sand at the beach. Industry doesn't happen at the beach. It happens someplace where there is easy shipment of resources and a source of labor. It makes a lot more sense to talk about Titan as the gas station of the outer Solar System. Exporting methane for all of the rockets flying around doing stuff. Which means that there will be industrial infrastructure there for dealing with methane. That in turn means that other uses for that methane will have an economic leg up.

ythn 8y ago

> Issac Arthur speculates that Titan may become a center of cryogenic industry and computing in the late 21st century. More like the late 31st century

jstanley 8y ago
At the start of the 20th century heavier-than-air flight wasn't possible. By the end of the 20th century we'd put people on the moon, and brought them back alive, multiple times. Inter-continental flight became so routine that it's not even notable. I wouldn't underestimate the rate of technological progress.
- spraak 8y ago
  We don't know if it grows logarithmicly or exponentially, though
  - stcredzero 8y ago
    If we go by wealth generated and population supported, it would appear to go exponentially.
- SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
  > By the end of the 20th century we'd put people on the moon, and brought them back alive multiple time ... I wouldn't underestimate the rate of technological progress. That was by 1972 (1). 46 years ago. Since then, no progress on this front. Not even a repeat. This is not an accelerating rate. 1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17
  - stcredzero 8y ago
    Not everything can be usefully measured with one easy metric, as in Moore's Law. In the case of something like colonization, the proper metrics are economic, not technological benchmarks. You could just as well cherry pick from The Age of Discovery, say from 1260 to 1360 and make the same statement: "X years ago. Since then, no progress on this front. Not even a repeat. This is not an accelerating rate." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Discovery#Medieval_travel_(1241%E2%80%931438) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Discovery#Medieval_trav... However, if you look at metrics of economic activity across spans 200, 400, and 600 years after that, you get a far different picture. So basically, your point is intellectually bankrupt. It's based on too little data and uses an entirely inadequate metric.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 8y ago
      I was with you until "your point is intellectually bankrupt" which is unnecessarily insulting and also wrong. I would welcome a return to deep space, but there has been no progress towards it recently. The dates are correct. It might be true that this is not strong enough evidence against either, and that it still remains an open question if recent technological advances on Earth will translate into a return to space, but that's as far as it goes. There's nothing inevitable about it, it depends on what people want.
      - stcredzero 8y ago
        I was with you until "your point is intellectually bankrupt" which is unnecessarily insulting This is part of being an intellectual: I can insult your point all day. That's perfectly fine. Taking that personally -- not good form. there has been no progress towards it recently. The dates are correct. If you were an alien observing earth from orbit, you could have made the same observation ("no progress towards it recently") about ocean going exploration at multiple points, prior to it changing history irrevocably and then exploding in economic and political importance. There's nothing inevitable about it, it depends on what people want. In that case, it's likely to happen.
- marcosdumay 8y ago
  I wouldn't underestimate the uninterestingness of space either. People could probably place a datacenter at Titan today. But nobody will, and for good reasons. I don't have any narrative for why people will colonize space, but it will probably be done for sending people there, because exporting stuff for Earth isn't really reasonable.
hourislate 8y ago
If we had Nuclear Fusion and Androids, would it still take another 1000 years to seed the Solar System? I don't know, just asking...
- jacobush 8y ago
  You'll probably have to ask the Androids.
stcredzero 8y ago
If it took only 250 years to go from outposts to the late 20th century US, I very much doubt it will take us 1000 years to a solar system-wide civilization as portrayed in The Expanse. If you subscribe to the exponential nature of civilization changes, then it becomes doubtful Homo sapiens will be around in 100 years!
- elorant 8y ago
  On the other hand, it's fifty years since we went to Moon and in the meantime we haven't even set-up a tent there. We assume that we'll have the technology for deep space exploration but we tend to forget the logistics nightmare of any such endeavor.
  - stcredzero 8y ago
    On the other hand, it's fifty years since we went to Moon and in the meantime we haven't even set-up a tent there. In the early fits and starts of the exploration of Earth, there were multiple spans of 50 years where progress was seemingly abandoned and nothing happened. We assume that we'll have the technology for deep space exploration but we tend to forget the logistics nightmare of any such endeavor. Environmental technology will be harder than we thought at first, then we'll get the hang of it. Some people will die along the way. Then it will improve exponentially, as economic impetus comes into play.
    - GW150914 8y ago
      Environmental technology will be harder than we thought at first, then we'll get the hang of it. Some people will die along the way. Then it will improve exponentially, as economic impetus comes into play. Unless you know a lot that no one serious claims to know, then this is a statement of what you hope for and maybe personally believe, but for which no evidence exists. The sheer bulk of unknown unknowns in environmental tech, not to mention other assumptions you’ve been making about industry in space and more, are too numerous and prevalent to allow for confident statements either way. You may be right that humanity’s destiny is in the far reaches of the solar system, but it could go many other ways. Maybe we’ll die in the dirt, or maybe we’ll thrive in completely different ways. For all that you know, rather than personally wish to believe, our future may more closely resemble something like a Dyson Swarm constructed by drones rather than hurling ourselves into the dim and cold reaches of space. Maybe we’ll figure out a mutually amicable way to control population rates and make the Earth a Paradise, and leave space for robots. Who knows? Not me, not you. All of which is to say, please stop passing off something that is less than a hunch as an argument. The core of science is skepticism and a demand for evidence, while the core of pop science is an inverse relationship between knowledge and enthusiasm. Claiming to know what will happen in 50 years is a joke, in 100 years delusion, and in 1000 years religion. There are so many branches and twists and turns, both positive and negative and just plain unforeseen that futurism is crap.

jandrese 8y ago

> Issac Arthur speculates that Titan may become a center of cryogenic industry and computing in the late 21st century Who the hell wants to ship stuff 9AU plus or minus just to freeze it? Why not just build a sun shield in orbit with a bunch of black body radiators on the back? Or you know, use conventional refrigeration on Earth. Pretty much anything is better than shipping it out or back from Saturn.

stcredzero 8y ago
Who the hell wants to ship stuff 9AU plus or minus just to freeze it? No one. So if you're already out near Titan delta-V wise, Titan is the best place with lots of resources. Why not just build a sun shield in orbit with a bunch of black body radiators on the back? That would work. However, the cooling will be of much greater value if it's near other things of value. Or you know, use conventional refrigeration on Earth. Which will happen a lot, because there are lots of things of value on Earth. Pretty much anything is better than shipping it out or back from Saturn. If you're in the outer solar system, then pretty much anything is better than shipping it from Earth.
- jandrese 8y ago
  If you are in the outer solar system you won't have trouble freezing anything. "Cyrogenic industry" is freezing stuff. In the outer solar system that is like trying to sell sand at the beach. It makes a lot more sense to talk about Titan as the gas station of the outer Solar System. Exporting methane for all of the rockets flying around doing stuff.
  - stcredzero 8y ago
    If you are in the outer solar system you won't have trouble freezing anything. It's not freezing things, it's cooling things which is key. At a random point in the outer solar system, to have a lot of cooling power, you need to build huge radiators. You need to supply coolant to flow through those radiators. On Titan, you just pump fluid from a lake. "Cyrogenic industry" is freezing stuff. Only in the simpleton view. Cryogenic industry is doing stuff that requires low temperatures. In the outer solar system that is like trying to sell sand at the beach. Industry doesn't happen at the beach. It happens someplace where there is easy shipment of resources and a source of labor. It makes a lot more sense to talk about Titan as the gas station of the outer Solar System. Exporting methane for all of the rockets flying around doing stuff. Which means that there will be industrial infrastructure there for dealing with methane. That in turn means that other uses for that methane will have an economic leg up.