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Wall street analysts are going to start writing articles about how this is a only a "burst week" and "not sustainable", and that the "rational" way of quantitat
by confiscate 8y ago
Wall street analysts are going to start writing articles about how this is a only a "burst week" and "not sustainable", and that the "rational" way of quantitatively analyzing the Tesla says the stock is worth zero.
- kenhwang 8y agoTesla's valuation certainly is insane. They're valued higher than GM and Ford, the former moves over 100x more vehicles and both are actually profitable. If you value Tesla as battery company that happens to make cars, it's just as silly since it's such a small portion of their revenue.
- abledon 8y agoLots of normal peeps invest in TSLA for moral/ethical/stylistic reasons. This in turn drives up the price.
- jryle70 8y agoInstagram is valued at 100B, Netflix goes neck and neck with Walt Disney. Not to mention Amazon. Market value has never been in lock step with revenue. And I'm sure you know it. It's entirely possible Tesla will go burst. We'll see. However market value isn't a reliable indicator.
- kenhwang 8y agoAt least Instagram prints money (at the moment anyway). Netflix is almost as insane, but they're the (almost uncontested) leader in global online content distribution at the moment. Tesla is dead last against like 20+ competent profitable industry incumbents.
- drewrv 8y agoIf you think there's 50/50 odds they'll either go bankrupt or be twice as big as GM/Ford some day, it's reasonable for their valuation to be on par with those guys (I don't think that btw, just trying to make sense of it).
- jamesgblaine 8y agoIt was a burst week and does not seem to be sustainable in the near-term at least given what they had to do to get that rate for one week. Not worth zero but certainly a difficult company to value.
- ucaetano 8y agoThat's before you mention if 7000 cars went through production. You could easily have stored 7000 cars half way through production and finished them over a week. Heck, they could have 8000 cars parked waiting to go through quality control, discarded 1000 that didn't pass and rolled out 7000 cars. The number is largely meaningless without further qualification.
- jamesgblaine 8y agoYes -- I would love a clear definition of what "factory gated" means and then an accounting of which cars were already close to finished. But I doubt we'll get that!
- jryle70 8y agoDo you know what the headline was 2 months ago? it was whether Tesla could make 2500 cars a week: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/apr/17/tesla-halts-model-3-electric-car-production-improve-automation https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/apr/17/tesla-hal... (and they did miss that deadline) They're now making in the territory of 5000 cars a week, almost double in 2 months. Regardless of how you interpret it as burst week or not, the production rate has ramped up significantly. We are now seeing the goalpost being moved from whether Tesla can achieve this goal, to Tesla being lax with quality. Perhaps we'll hear soon 10K/week is unattainable. I guess that means they are making progress.
- ucaetano 8y agoThey aren't making, they are pushing out of the factory. Each one of those cars could have taken 2 months to assemble, and they've just been waiting to finish and push it out. Without more data, the 5000 cars out of the gate number is irrelevant. Check Little's Law.