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The skepticism is simple: Musk has a history of making schedule pronouncements that fall through. He predicted they'd hit this milestone last year, and they did

The skepticism is simple: Musk has a history of making schedule pronouncements that fall through. He predicted they'd hit this milestone last year, and they didn't. In fact, he predicted they'd be far beyond this milestone by now, and they aren't. And he really, really, really hates it when people point how his broken promises and failed claims, so it's reasonable to expect he might be trying to play with some smoke and mirrors and distract everybody with a one-time hit at 5k, hoping we forget he's late, and that he said that would just be a stepping-stone on the way to 25k/week. Or, you know, it could just be late, and he's on track slowly. But the skepticism is absolutely warranted, and there are probably better odds for the skepticism.

colordrops 8y ago
Skepticism of hitting goals by certain dates are fair. But you are conflating skepticism of promises of meeting milestones with the ability to execute at all. They met the 5000 car a week goal. There was no promise of a date for a consistent 5000 cars a week. Is your claim that you are skeptical that they can ever hit a regular 5000 cars a week?
- shawabawa3 8y ago
  > There was no promise of a date for a consistent 5000 cars a week I'm pretty sure that was December 2017 [1] [1] "Chief Executive Elon Musk announced that production of its mass-market Model 3 would start this week and build to 20,000 per month in December. " - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-idUSKBN19O0GE
  - colordrops 8y ago
    That's an old article, and Musk has since updated his estimates and dates, and was explicit that they would target burst builds before ramping full-time [1]. But that's beside the point - the question is, what is the source of skepticism of the ability to execute at all (not by a particular target date)? We can go back and forth on dates and numbers all day, but that's not my question. [1] https://bgr.com/2018/04/17/elon-musk-model-3-production-6000-july/ https://bgr.com/2018/04/17/elon-musk-model-3-production-6000...
- empath75 8y ago
  I am skeptical that they’ll get to it before they run out of money.
- inferiorhuman 8y ago
  > Skepticism of hitting goals by certain dates are fair. But you are conflating skepticism of promises of meeting milestones with the ability to execute at all. One of the things from the Jalopnik piece that blew my mind was this: > For other tasks, the reliance on robots has proved a headache. For months, Tesla engineers struggled to get a robot to guide a bolt through a hole accurately to secure part of the rear brake. They found a maddeningly simple solution: Instead of using a bolt with a flat tip on its threaded end, engineers switched to a bolt with a tapered point, known as a “lead-in,” that can be guided through the hole even if the robot is a millimeter off dead center, Mr. Moravy said. Tesla is reinventing the wheel, so, yes there's going to be some doubt about their ability to execute. To my untrained eyes using the wrong bolt seems like a total rookie mistake. Even if not... Tesla spent months trying to thread a bolt. That's time and effort they could have spent on higher value propositions like fit and finish. https://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-still-figuring-out-the-model-3-as-it-builds-th-1827268649 https://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-still-figuring-out-the-model-3...

colordrops 8y ago

Skepticism of hitting goals by certain dates are fair. But you are conflating skepticism of promises of meeting milestones with the ability to execute at all. They met the 5000 car a week goal. There was no promise of a date for a consistent 5000 cars a week. Is your claim that you are skeptical that they can ever hit a regular 5000 cars a week?

shawabawa3 8y ago
> There was no promise of a date for a consistent 5000 cars a week I'm pretty sure that was December 2017 [1] [1] "Chief Executive Elon Musk announced that production of its mass-market Model 3 would start this week and build to 20,000 per month in December. " - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-idUSKBN19O0GE
- colordrops 8y ago
  That's an old article, and Musk has since updated his estimates and dates, and was explicit that they would target burst builds before ramping full-time [1]. But that's beside the point - the question is, what is the source of skepticism of the ability to execute at all (not by a particular target date)? We can go back and forth on dates and numbers all day, but that's not my question. [1] https://bgr.com/2018/04/17/elon-musk-model-3-production-6000-july/ https://bgr.com/2018/04/17/elon-musk-model-3-production-6000...
empath75 8y ago
I am skeptical that they’ll get to it before they run out of money.
inferiorhuman 8y ago
> Skepticism of hitting goals by certain dates are fair. But you are conflating skepticism of promises of meeting milestones with the ability to execute at all. One of the things from the Jalopnik piece that blew my mind was this: > For other tasks, the reliance on robots has proved a headache. For months, Tesla engineers struggled to get a robot to guide a bolt through a hole accurately to secure part of the rear brake. They found a maddeningly simple solution: Instead of using a bolt with a flat tip on its threaded end, engineers switched to a bolt with a tapered point, known as a “lead-in,” that can be guided through the hole even if the robot is a millimeter off dead center, Mr. Moravy said. Tesla is reinventing the wheel, so, yes there's going to be some doubt about their ability to execute. To my untrained eyes using the wrong bolt seems like a total rookie mistake. Even if not... Tesla spent months trying to thread a bolt. That's time and effort they could have spent on higher value propositions like fit and finish. https://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-still-figuring-out-the-model-3-as-it-builds-th-1827268649 https://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-still-figuring-out-the-model-3...