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>My number one piece of advice: invest in the market, never invest in individual stocks. I have been disregarding this very prominent advice since 2015. I am u

>My number one piece of advice: invest in the market, never invest in individual stocks. I have been disregarding this very prominent advice since 2015. I am up over 200% since then, and up 40% YTD. This is the same lame advice every financial advisor gives. It is even the advice Warren Buffett would tell you. However, Warren Buffett didn't get where he is today investing in ETF's and mutual funds, he invested in individual stocks. I completely reject this notion that investing in individual stocks is some extremely difficult thing to do well. That you need to spend countless hours doing high level analysis of a companies financials, that is just plain false.

arielweisberg 8y ago
Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. Your strategy has no floor. A strategy based on investing in the entire market has a floor (and ceiling) which is the performance of the market itself. It also performs the same for everyone who participates and guarantees the same outcome with no active management risk.
- jaxtellerSoA 8y ago
  >Your strategy has no floor. Seeing as how you don't know my strategy I don't know how on earth you could claim that. >It also performs the same for everyone who participates Maybe that is fine for you....it isn't for me. I want to perform much better than everyone else who is participating.
tyrust 8y ago
>I have been disregarding this very prominent advice since 2015. I am up over 200% since then, and up 40% YTD. Doing well over 3 years in a bull market is not very impressive. If you can beat the market over 30 years and through bear markets then you're a force to be reckoned with. >Warren Buffett didn't get where he is today investing in ETF's and mutual funds None of us here are Warren Buffett. Most of us here are working full time jobs as software engineers, not investors.
- jaxtellerSoA 8y ago
  >Doing well over 3 years in a bull market is not very impressive. If you can beat the market over 30 years and through bear markets then you're a force to be reckoned with. It is a hell a lot better returns than simply investing in the S&P 500 for the past 3 years. Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell.
  - tyrust 8y ago
    I'm not arguing whether you've done better than the S&P 500 in the past three years. I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years (unless you sell right now while you're ahead and reinvest in the S&P 500). edit to reply to your edit: >Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell. That's the argument for investing in an index. Individual stocks will come and go through these market cycles, but the index will average out ahead. If one is capable of predicting these individual stocks, power to them. You clearly think that you are one of these investing powerhouses and will not be convinced otherwise. Best of luck.
    - dominotw 8y ago
      > I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years What is the basis of this prediction ? That index fund are more diversified that individual stock picks?
      - tyrust 8y ago
        Yes, combined with the fact that some HN poster touting three years of sick gains probably isn't able to beat a highly diversified portfolio.
mikestew 8y ago
I have been disregarding this very prominent advice since 2015 IOW, you've never known a down market. This is the same lame advice every financial advisor gives. It is even the advice Warren Buffett would tell you. It's all a conspiracy of the professionals, I tell ya! They wouldn't want you making the same returns they do, now would they? he invested in individual stocks Buffet bought/buys entire companies, or at least a large part of them. I completely reject this notion that investing in individual stocks is some extremely difficult thing to do well. Not that you'll believe me, but you might very well get your comeuppance. I mean, I hope not as I wish financial ill on few people. But you've had great returns only in a bull market, ignore the advice of professionals who have been doing this for decades, and you seem to think stock picking isn't all that hard. I, who has ridden the ups and downs of the market since the 80s, have seen this time and again where a sudden downturn or recession turns those "models" upside-down. The last one that stands prominently in my mind was the dot com bust. Everyone was "up over 200%"...until they weren't. Anyone else reading can ignore this. Unless you want to make a hobby out of it, go buy S&P 500 index funds, like everyone tells you to do. Oh, sure, splurge $10K on some TSLA or AAPL once in a while if you're feeling lucky, but keep most of it in the general market. If you do wish to make a hobby of it, know that myself and everyone I've personally know who trades regularly has learned some hard and expensive lessons along the way. It's a good education, and you'll likely be a better investor for it, but it's not free. (Disclaimer: I trade the hell out of individual stocks. Do as I say, not as I do. <g>)

arielweisberg 8y ago

Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. Your strategy has no floor. A strategy based on investing in the entire market has a floor (and ceiling) which is the performance of the market itself. It also performs the same for everyone who participates and guarantees the same outcome with no active management risk.

jaxtellerSoA 8y ago
>Your strategy has no floor. Seeing as how you don't know my strategy I don't know how on earth you could claim that. >It also performs the same for everyone who participates Maybe that is fine for you....it isn't for me. I want to perform much better than everyone else who is participating.

tyrust 8y ago

>I have been disregarding this very prominent advice since 2015. I am up over 200% since then, and up 40% YTD. Doing well over 3 years in a bull market is not very impressive. If you can beat the market over 30 years and through bear markets then you're a force to be reckoned with. >Warren Buffett didn't get where he is today investing in ETF's and mutual funds None of us here are Warren Buffett. Most of us here are working full time jobs as software engineers, not investors.

jaxtellerSoA 8y ago
>Doing well over 3 years in a bull market is not very impressive. If you can beat the market over 30 years and through bear markets then you're a force to be reckoned with. It is a hell a lot better returns than simply investing in the S&P 500 for the past 3 years. Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell.
- tyrust 8y ago
  I'm not arguing whether you've done better than the S&P 500 in the past three years. I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years (unless you sell right now while you're ahead and reinvest in the S&P 500). edit to reply to your edit: >Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell. That's the argument for investing in an index. Individual stocks will come and go through these market cycles, but the index will average out ahead. If one is capable of predicting these individual stocks, power to them. You clearly think that you are one of these investing powerhouses and will not be convinced otherwise. Best of luck.
  - dominotw 8y ago
    > I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years What is the basis of this prediction ? That index fund are more diversified that individual stock picks?
    - tyrust 8y ago
      Yes, combined with the fact that some HN poster touting three years of sick gains probably isn't able to beat a highly diversified portfolio.

mikestew 8y ago

I have been disregarding this very prominent advice since 2015 IOW, you've never known a down market. This is the same lame advice every financial advisor gives. It is even the advice Warren Buffett would tell you. It's all a conspiracy of the professionals, I tell ya! They wouldn't want you making the same returns they do, now would they? he invested in individual stocks Buffet bought/buys entire companies, or at least a large part of them. I completely reject this notion that investing in individual stocks is some extremely difficult thing to do well. Not that you'll believe me, but you might very well get your comeuppance. I mean, I hope not as I wish financial ill on few people. But you've had great returns only in a bull market, ignore the advice of professionals who have been doing this for decades, and you seem to think stock picking isn't all that hard. I, who has ridden the ups and downs of the market since the 80s, have seen this time and again where a sudden downturn or recession turns those "models" upside-down. The last one that stands prominently in my mind was the dot com bust. Everyone was "up over 200%"...until they weren't. Anyone else reading can ignore this. Unless you want to make a hobby out of it, go buy S&P 500 index funds, like everyone tells you to do. Oh, sure, splurge $10K on some TSLA or AAPL once in a while if you're feeling lucky, but keep most of it in the general market. If you do wish to make a hobby of it, know that myself and everyone I've personally know who trades regularly has learned some hard and expensive lessons along the way. It's a good education, and you'll likely be a better investor for it, but it's not free. (Disclaimer: I trade the hell out of individual stocks. Do as I say, not as I do. <g>)