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This is propaganda. China is mostly an uneducated factory nation who will be crushed by automation. Articles like this are great for clicks on a website. Edit:

This is propaganda. China is mostly an uneducated factory nation who will be crushed by automation. Articles like this are great for clicks on a website. Edit: which Chinese tech companies are actually dominant? All of them are copies of American tech companies propped up by their government. Where is the market penetration into the USA? Where is the competition? There is none.

ajiang 8y ago
Author is Sequoia's Michael Moritz who has a decent amount of credibility here. I think his last few articles on China have been more around warning US tech companies not to get complacent, rather than trying to convince people that China is a tech holy land. As for the part about being an uneducated factory nation, the latest PISA findings from 2015 would have China scoring higher than the US on math (10th vs. 25th) and science (6th vs. 40th), but slightly lower than the US on reading (27th vs. 24th).
- chii 8y ago
  > Sequoia's Michael Moritz who has a decent amount of credibility but you have to also think whether he's biased in wanting to push the view that the next big tech hub is in China, because he's invested in the region. Making the hype machine so that when time comes to exit, there's plenty of doofus who will believe the hype and buy into the market. it's very hard to know what to believe, and even more effort to do research. Most people won't be doing it, so it's an effective method to generate hype.
  - thablackbull 8y ago
    > but you have to also think whether he's biased in wanting to push the view that the next big tech hub is in China, because he's invested in the region. He puts his money where his mouth is. I made another comment here that it was refreshing as it didn't predict the collapse of China which has been peddled for the past few decades by so-called experts - they could peddle any view they want with no financial repercussion. Secondly, even if Moritz was biased and published this article for his own gains, it's not as if we (foreigners) have easy access to invest in the region. > it's very hard to know what to believe, and even more effort to do research. Most people won't be doing it, so it's an effective method to generate hype. I heartily agree with you here, but you have to admit for every article like this, there are 10x more about the imminent demise of China, so I don't buy the argument that this article's hype will override 'collapse' articles which generate much more clicks.
coldtea 8y ago
>This is propaganda. China is mostly an uneducated factory nation who will be crushed by automation LOL. First, that's the same argument they were making back in the day for Japan (the "uneducated factory nation", the "copy cats", the "cheap knockoffs" etc). Funny how that turned out. Second, labor costs are not the relevant factor, so automation wont matter much to bring factory jobs back. It's all about the supply chain: http://www.businessinsider.com/you-simply-must-read-this-article-that-explains-why-apple-makes-iphones-in-china-and-why-the-us-is-screwed-2012-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/you-simply-must-read-this-art... https://www.economist.com/free-exchange/2012/01/23/apple-and-the-american-economy https://www.economist.com/free-exchange/2012/01/23/apple-and... Not to mention that Chinese factories can and will also invest in automation. Third, "uneducated factory nation"? Where does one get that information from, the John Birch Society Bulletin? https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/18/china-great-leap-forward-science-research-innovation-investment-5g-genetics-quantum-internet https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/18/china-great-... http://bruegel.org/2017/08/china-is-the-worlds-new-science-and-technology-powerhouse/ http://bruegel.org/2017/08/china-is-the-worlds-new-science-a... Oh, and as sibling says: "the latest PISA findings from 2015 would have China scoring higher than the US on math (10th vs. 25th) and science (6th vs. 40th), but slightly lower than the US on reading (27th vs. 24th)." It's easy to make fun of previously underdeveloped nations that started from an uneducated and less advance point 30 and 60 years ago, but the problem is that they can catch up (like Japan and South Korea, an insignificant economic wasteland after WWII, did). Especially if their rivals are on the decline themselves. Rome didn't last forever.
- corporateslaver 8y ago
  Look at Japan, their economy has been stagnant since the 80s, propped up by government market manipulation. They are almost completely irrelevant. Which innovative companies does China have that aren’t complete rip offs of American ones? Where is the penetration by those companies into the USA?
  - coldtea 8y ago
    >Look at Japan, their economy has been stagnant since the 80s, propped up by government market manipulation. They are almost completely irrelevant. They're still "the third-largest in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). and is the world's second largest developed economy". I'd take that level of irrelevance any day. Besides that, Japan's situation doesn't tell us much. >Which innovative companies does China have that aren’t complete rip offs of American ones? DJI would be a good example. They're the Apple of drones, and are doing great in the gimbal business as well. No American company comes even close. There are others of course, and more will emerge. Already they make phones on par with the best of the Android world. Besides, which innovative companies did Japan have before the 70s that weren't complete rip offs of American ones? And which innovative companies did the US have (before the mid-19th century) that weren't complete rip offs of European ones? And yet here we are now...
thablackbull 8y ago
> Articles like this are great for clicks on a website. That may be true, but I do find it refreshing over the thousands of articles claiming that China would collapse over the past few decades (and yet, somehow these experts failed to predict the AFC, GFC, dot-com bubble,...). Surely you consider those click-bait as well.
bnchrch 8y ago
> China is mostly an uneducated factory nation who will be crushed by automation. I'm not sure we've travelled to the same China. The country is capable, talented and very driven. If you ignore the surveillance state it has a lot of same characteristics that once made America exceptional. Even if this wasn't written by someone with the Sequoia Capital brand behind him Ive seen enough anecdotally to believe it.
- musage 8y ago
  > I'm not sure we've travelled to the same China. The country is capable, talented and very driven. This is less about where you've travelled to, but where you're from. Where I'm from, calling even a person "driven" as if that says anything would be frowned upon, not to mention saying "the country is X" with a straight face. > If you ignore the surveillance state See above. Where I'm from, that's a very, very big "if". That surveillance state implies all sorts of evils and obedience to them, which puts "driven" in a kind of questionable light. Driven to what? To be accepted? To not be punished? To get a good score? What about being driven to do good work, (get to know and then) express yourself, and stand up to evil wherever you find it? "Driven" itself says nothing. Hitler was driven, too. So was Mao. I would not travel to that country, because I would not dare to be honest there, and I could not live with myself being obedient, and being a factor in normalizing it. I would literally rather kill myself, so it's very convenient to outright dismiss the opinion of anyone who isn't Chinese or hasn't been to China. At any rate, the Chinese I tend to see in Berlin I would describe as ranging from "very timid" to "exuding a timidness that becomes palpable", but maybe it's that they're all from the countryside and not used to being around lots of people.
anonymous5133 8y ago
Not true. Look at places like shenzhen which is like the silicon valley of china. Theyre inventing new technologies just like here in the usa. It isnt the same in terms of amount but theyre on their way for sure.

ajiang 8y ago

Author is Sequoia's Michael Moritz who has a decent amount of credibility here. I think his last few articles on China have been more around warning US tech companies not to get complacent, rather than trying to convince people that China is a tech holy land. As for the part about being an uneducated factory nation, the latest PISA findings from 2015 would have China scoring higher than the US on math (10th vs. 25th) and science (6th vs. 40th), but slightly lower than the US on reading (27th vs. 24th).

chii 8y ago
> Sequoia's Michael Moritz who has a decent amount of credibility but you have to also think whether he's biased in wanting to push the view that the next big tech hub is in China, because he's invested in the region. Making the hype machine so that when time comes to exit, there's plenty of doofus who will believe the hype and buy into the market. it's very hard to know what to believe, and even more effort to do research. Most people won't be doing it, so it's an effective method to generate hype.
- thablackbull 8y ago
  > but you have to also think whether he's biased in wanting to push the view that the next big tech hub is in China, because he's invested in the region. He puts his money where his mouth is. I made another comment here that it was refreshing as it didn't predict the collapse of China which has been peddled for the past few decades by so-called experts - they could peddle any view they want with no financial repercussion. Secondly, even if Moritz was biased and published this article for his own gains, it's not as if we (foreigners) have easy access to invest in the region. > it's very hard to know what to believe, and even more effort to do research. Most people won't be doing it, so it's an effective method to generate hype. I heartily agree with you here, but you have to admit for every article like this, there are 10x more about the imminent demise of China, so I don't buy the argument that this article's hype will override 'collapse' articles which generate much more clicks.

coldtea 8y ago

>This is propaganda. China is mostly an uneducated factory nation who will be crushed by automation LOL. First, that's the same argument they were making back in the day for Japan (the "uneducated factory nation", the "copy cats", the "cheap knockoffs" etc). Funny how that turned out. Second, labor costs are not the relevant factor, so automation wont matter much to bring factory jobs back. It's all about the supply chain: http://www.businessinsider.com/you-simply-must-read-this-article-that-explains-why-apple-makes-iphones-in-china-and-why-the-us-is-screwed-2012-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/you-simply-must-read-this-art... https://www.economist.com/free-exchange/2012/01/23/apple-and-the-american-economy https://www.economist.com/free-exchange/2012/01/23/apple-and... Not to mention that Chinese factories can and will also invest in automation. Third, "uneducated factory nation"? Where does one get that information from, the John Birch Society Bulletin? https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/18/china-great-leap-forward-science-research-innovation-investment-5g-genetics-quantum-internet https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/18/china-great-... http://bruegel.org/2017/08/china-is-the-worlds-new-science-and-technology-powerhouse/ http://bruegel.org/2017/08/china-is-the-worlds-new-science-a... Oh, and as sibling says: "the latest PISA findings from 2015 would have China scoring higher than the US on math (10th vs. 25th) and science (6th vs. 40th), but slightly lower than the US on reading (27th vs. 24th)." It's easy to make fun of previously underdeveloped nations that started from an uneducated and less advance point 30 and 60 years ago, but the problem is that they can catch up (like Japan and South Korea, an insignificant economic wasteland after WWII, did). Especially if their rivals are on the decline themselves. Rome didn't last forever.

corporateslaver 8y ago
Look at Japan, their economy has been stagnant since the 80s, propped up by government market manipulation. They are almost completely irrelevant. Which innovative companies does China have that aren’t complete rip offs of American ones? Where is the penetration by those companies into the USA?
- coldtea 8y ago
  >Look at Japan, their economy has been stagnant since the 80s, propped up by government market manipulation. They are almost completely irrelevant. They're still "the third-largest in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). and is the world's second largest developed economy". I'd take that level of irrelevance any day. Besides that, Japan's situation doesn't tell us much. >Which innovative companies does China have that aren’t complete rip offs of American ones? DJI would be a good example. They're the Apple of drones, and are doing great in the gimbal business as well. No American company comes even close. There are others of course, and more will emerge. Already they make phones on par with the best of the Android world. Besides, which innovative companies did Japan have before the 70s that weren't complete rip offs of American ones? And which innovative companies did the US have (before the mid-19th century) that weren't complete rip offs of European ones? And yet here we are now...

thablackbull 8y ago

> Articles like this are great for clicks on a website. That may be true, but I do find it refreshing over the thousands of articles claiming that China would collapse over the past few decades (and yet, somehow these experts failed to predict the AFC, GFC, dot-com bubble,...). Surely you consider those click-bait as well.

bnchrch 8y ago

> China is mostly an uneducated factory nation who will be crushed by automation. I'm not sure we've travelled to the same China. The country is capable, talented and very driven. If you ignore the surveillance state it has a lot of same characteristics that once made America exceptional. Even if this wasn't written by someone with the Sequoia Capital brand behind him Ive seen enough anecdotally to believe it.

musage 8y ago
> I'm not sure we've travelled to the same China. The country is capable, talented and very driven. This is less about where you've travelled to, but where you're from. Where I'm from, calling even a person "driven" as if that says anything would be frowned upon, not to mention saying "the country is X" with a straight face. > If you ignore the surveillance state See above. Where I'm from, that's a very, very big "if". That surveillance state implies all sorts of evils and obedience to them, which puts "driven" in a kind of questionable light. Driven to what? To be accepted? To not be punished? To get a good score? What about being driven to do good work, (get to know and then) express yourself, and stand up to evil wherever you find it? "Driven" itself says nothing. Hitler was driven, too. So was Mao. I would not travel to that country, because I would not dare to be honest there, and I could not live with myself being obedient, and being a factor in normalizing it. I would literally rather kill myself, so it's very convenient to outright dismiss the opinion of anyone who isn't Chinese or hasn't been to China. At any rate, the Chinese I tend to see in Berlin I would describe as ranging from "very timid" to "exuding a timidness that becomes palpable", but maybe it's that they're all from the countryside and not used to being around lots of people.

anonymous5133 8y ago

Not true. Look at places like shenzhen which is like the silicon valley of china. Theyre inventing new technologies just like here in the usa. It isnt the same in terms of amount but theyre on their way for sure.