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I don't think it's true even in the general case, or if it is true that countries with more open elections have more peaceful transfers of power then I think th

by lev99 8y ago

I don't think it's true even in the general case, or if it is true that countries with more open elections have more peaceful transfers of power then I think that the peaceful transfer of power can be more accurately predicted by other variables such as college education rate, gdp per capital, or length of constitution. I submit the dissolution of the Soviet Union is an example of a large communist goverment transferring power outside the party without it being 'catastrophic'. While it was a politically and economically turbulent time, control of the goverment was relinquished without civil war. Some protesters were killed in various countries, but there were many orders of magnitude less death in the USSR relinquishing control than the USSR to gaining control.

seanmcdirmid 8y ago
Historically, autocracies rarely end well. Even the USSR’s dissolution led to a decade of chaos. In any case, can you tell me how the people will remove Xi if they ever become unhappy with him? I mean, peacefully of course. China has no choice to keep pumping their economy. Even a mild recession could lead to really bad things.
- lev99 8y ago
  > In any case, can you tell me how the people will remove Xi if they ever become unhappy with him? Xi answers to the communist party. The communist party is more invested in staying in power than keeping Xi in office. Every five years the National Congress of the Communist Party of China convenes, which selects the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee, and has the authority to change the Community Party of China's Constitution. China has had a long run of good years. It'll be interesting to see how the party reacts to unruly citizens.
  - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
    The CCP Congress has been a sham, decisions taken during the Congress are already made long before it. On any given day, there are a few hundred protests in China; eg some migrant workers didn’t get paid. Your question is not hypothetical.

by lev99 8y ago

seanmcdirmid 8y ago

Historically, autocracies rarely end well. Even the USSR’s dissolution led to a decade of chaos. In any case, can you tell me how the people will remove Xi if they ever become unhappy with him? I mean, peacefully of course. China has no choice to keep pumping their economy. Even a mild recession could lead to really bad things.

lev99 8y ago
> In any case, can you tell me how the people will remove Xi if they ever become unhappy with him? Xi answers to the communist party. The communist party is more invested in staying in power than keeping Xi in office. Every five years the National Congress of the Communist Party of China convenes, which selects the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee, and has the authority to change the Community Party of China's Constitution. China has had a long run of good years. It'll be interesting to see how the party reacts to unruly citizens.
- seanmcdirmid 8y ago
  The CCP Congress has been a sham, decisions taken during the Congress are already made long before it. On any given day, there are a few hundred protests in China; eg some migrant workers didn’t get paid. Your question is not hypothetical.