Awesome project, I love the use of TrueSkill Through Time here! Really interesting that it beats out Elo as well. FiveThirtyEight actually posted their WC pred

Awesome project, I love the use of TrueSkill Through Time here! Really interesting that it beats out Elo as well. FiveThirtyEight actually posted their WC predictions earlier today [1]. Finding where the two models diverge is a fun exercise -- they have Morocco as a 40% favorite tomorrow while your model has Iran as a 46% favorite. It would be interesting to test the model by applying the Kelly Criterion [2] when you have an odds advantage to a fake initial $1000 bankroll and seeing where you end up at the end of the tournament. If Iran does end up being a 46% favorite tomorrow then that Kelly test will start to look really good, really quickly - the market is only giving Iran a ~25% chance right now! [1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/matches/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predicti... [2] http://www.elem.com/~btilly/kelly-criterion/ http://www.elem.com/~btilly/kelly-criterion/ for the background, http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/ http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/ for a useful calculator