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GM just had their annual meeting for shareholders. They said they'll increase production of Bolt but refused to say by how much and by when. In contrast, Tesl

by kjksf 8y ago

GM just had their annual meeting for shareholders. They said they'll increase production of Bolt but refused to say by how much and by when. In contrast, Tesla lays out their future plans months, sometimes years in advance. Tone aside, it seems to me that Tesla is being measured here by a completely different stick. Compared to all other public companies they provide vastly more "legitimate" information. Just for a few examples of "legitimate" questions that well known companies refuse to answer, even if politely: * GM won't tell you any details about future plans for Bolt and other EVs. Tesla: "we'll make 10k by end of 2018". GM: we'll increase production, don't ask us when or by how much" * Amazon only recently disclosed number of Prime subscribers, and only total number, not breaking down e.g. US from international * Netflix won't tell shareholders viewing numbers for any of their shows I could go on talking about information that companies don't share. It's just bizarre that people expect Tesla will just disclose anything that's asked.

daveguy 8y ago
Tesla is held to a different standard is precisely because they have been so forthcoming in the past. If a company is giving regular updates on production and targets and then gets weird about it for one meeting then you can expect a drop. It looks like they are back on track (and are again open about production), but you can bet if they get cagey about it again their stock is going to take a hit. They might be able to transition to less openness if they want to (so they only reveal what they want and don't spook investors), but not one extreme to the other in just one shareholders meeting.
- cptskippy 8y ago
  Seems like a great way to make money. Train everyone to be weary if you're cagey answering questions. 1) Short your stock. 2) Hold press event. 3) Get cagey about questions. 4) Profit.
  - dragonwriter 8y ago
    And that is a perfect example of why corporate management and other insiders are subject to all kinds of restriction on trading their company’s stock.
    - cptskippy 8y ago
      That's only if they give false or misleading statements or trading on non-publicly disclosed information. Does it count if you intentionally manipulate your body language or tone in intentionally misleading ways while still presenting factual and correct information? For example giving an uncharacteristic pregnant pause when answering a straight forward question or becoming agitated when normally you're subdue?
- njarboe 8y ago
  I think the reason Musk and Tesla are very sensitive about production numbers right now is that they want to hit their 200k electric car production number at just the right time. The way the $7500 federal tax credit works (and I am pretty certain this is right. Happy to follow a link to the actual law) is that after a company makes 200k qualifying vehicles, for the rest of that quarter and the quarter after that people still get the tax credit. So depending on when they hit the 200,000th car, the full tax credit will last between 3 and 6 months. Tesla would like to get the Model 3 production ramped up to a high level but not hit the 200k total production until right after the start of a quarter. It looks like they are going to do just that. Tesla is very close to 200k this month and that is probably partly why they shut down to "improve production rate". Slow down production in June to not hit 200k until after July 1. They have also been playing with exporting more cars to hit the 200k number at just the right time. Having the maximum 6 months instead of the minimum 3 months will be a lot of extra cars/people getting the tax credit. If they average 6000 cars a week over that time (12 weeks x 6000 x $7500) that is an extra $540 million. Then the tax credit goes in half for the next two quarters and in half again ($7500/4) for the next 2 quarters. Seems a bit strange for the law not just to say the credit extends for 6 months after the 200,000th car is built, but who knows how such laws get crafted.
  - cjhopman 8y ago
    Your whole premise is wrong. The credit's expiration is based on # of cars sold for use in the US. Not, in any way, on # of cars built.
    - njarboe 8y ago
      You are right. I knew that as seen in my reference to selling cars overseas. I should have said sold domestically not built.
    - toast0 8y ago
      It's not a direct link, but it's pretty close. You can't sell cars that aren't built, and if they're built, you want to sell them ASAP so you don't have to deal with inventory. That you can sell them to other countries helps with the inventory issue though.
dsfyu404ed 8y ago
Standards are different in many ways. The marketing surrounding Tesla's autopilot is borderline false to the point of illegal and when it does things like crashes into lane obstructions at full speed it's the user's fault for using it wrong. GM got rakes over the coals because a handful of people (most of whom were not wearing seatbelts) died when the airbags failed to go off because of an ignition switch malfunction.
- abc_lisper 8y ago
  > GM got rakes over the coal After many years of the incident.
gamblor956 8y ago
Tesla is held to a different standard because they whine like children when they're held to the same safety, financial, or operational standard as other automakers. They don't get to have their cake and eat it too until they prove they've earned it, and thus far they haven't by the metrics that matter to analysts or the public in general.
empath75 8y ago
Tesla’s numbers have been largely complete bullshit so I don’t see how it’s helpful.
dragonwriter 8y ago
> GM won't tell you any details about future plans for Bolt and other EVs. Tesla: "we'll make 10k by end of 2018". GM: we'll increase production, don't ask us when or by how much" EVs are now, and for several years into the future, a small part of GMs story. They are Tesla's whole story. So, yes, GM can afford to be less specific—heck, even less certain—of exactly what they are going to do in the EV market. > Netflix won't tell shareholders viewing numbers for any of their shows Netflix doesn't sell individual views of shows, nor does it sell products (e.g., advertising) to customers on the basis of any show’s viewership; that's about as relevant a stat for Netflix as the number of ceiling tiles in the headquarters building is for Tesla. Tesla sells electric cars, and a very small number of models of them.
- jryle70 8y ago
  > EVs are now, and for several years into the future, a small part of GMs story. They are Tesla's whole story. So, yes, GM can afford to be less specific—heck, even less certain—of exactly what they are going to do in the EV market. Not sure I understand your logic. Every business bar none likes to be seen as forward looking, future proof. The fact that GM keeps mum about their sole EV offering means they are behind Tesla, and likely others such as Nissan on this front. If they weren't I don't see why they couldn't say they'd make 500K of it by end of 2020, for example.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Because then you’d find out the Bolt is a compliance car and they’re unable to scale their EV production in any appreciable manner in the short term.
sgnelson 8y ago
At the same time, how much of the information that Musk gives out is wrong (especially on time frame?) They were already supposed to be at 10k cars a week. Live by the prediction, die by the prediction.
candiodari 8y ago
> They said they'll increase production of Bolt but refused to say by how much and by when. > Tone aside, it seems to me that Tesla is being measured here by a completely different stick. And if Elon Musk had made this argument during that earnings call, it would have been far better received than “We’re going to YouTube. These questions are so dry. They’re killing me.”

by kjksf 8y ago

daveguy 8y ago

Tesla is held to a different standard is precisely because they have been so forthcoming in the past. If a company is giving regular updates on production and targets and then gets weird about it for one meeting then you can expect a drop. It looks like they are back on track (and are again open about production), but you can bet if they get cagey about it again their stock is going to take a hit. They might be able to transition to less openness if they want to (so they only reveal what they want and don't spook investors), but not one extreme to the other in just one shareholders meeting.

cptskippy 8y ago
Seems like a great way to make money. Train everyone to be weary if you're cagey answering questions. 1) Short your stock. 2) Hold press event. 3) Get cagey about questions. 4) Profit.
- dragonwriter 8y ago
  And that is a perfect example of why corporate management and other insiders are subject to all kinds of restriction on trading their company’s stock.
  - cptskippy 8y ago
    That's only if they give false or misleading statements or trading on non-publicly disclosed information. Does it count if you intentionally manipulate your body language or tone in intentionally misleading ways while still presenting factual and correct information? For example giving an uncharacteristic pregnant pause when answering a straight forward question or becoming agitated when normally you're subdue?
njarboe 8y ago
I think the reason Musk and Tesla are very sensitive about production numbers right now is that they want to hit their 200k electric car production number at just the right time. The way the $7500 federal tax credit works (and I am pretty certain this is right. Happy to follow a link to the actual law) is that after a company makes 200k qualifying vehicles, for the rest of that quarter and the quarter after that people still get the tax credit. So depending on when they hit the 200,000th car, the full tax credit will last between 3 and 6 months. Tesla would like to get the Model 3 production ramped up to a high level but not hit the 200k total production until right after the start of a quarter. It looks like they are going to do just that. Tesla is very close to 200k this month and that is probably partly why they shut down to "improve production rate". Slow down production in June to not hit 200k until after July 1. They have also been playing with exporting more cars to hit the 200k number at just the right time. Having the maximum 6 months instead of the minimum 3 months will be a lot of extra cars/people getting the tax credit. If they average 6000 cars a week over that time (12 weeks x 6000 x $7500) that is an extra $540 million. Then the tax credit goes in half for the next two quarters and in half again ($7500/4) for the next 2 quarters. Seems a bit strange for the law not just to say the credit extends for 6 months after the 200,000th car is built, but who knows how such laws get crafted.
- cjhopman 8y ago
  Your whole premise is wrong. The credit's expiration is based on # of cars sold for use in the US. Not, in any way, on # of cars built.
  - njarboe 8y ago
    You are right. I knew that as seen in my reference to selling cars overseas. I should have said sold domestically not built.
  - toast0 8y ago
    It's not a direct link, but it's pretty close. You can't sell cars that aren't built, and if they're built, you want to sell them ASAP so you don't have to deal with inventory. That you can sell them to other countries helps with the inventory issue though.

dsfyu404ed 8y ago

Standards are different in many ways. The marketing surrounding Tesla's autopilot is borderline false to the point of illegal and when it does things like crashes into lane obstructions at full speed it's the user's fault for using it wrong. GM got rakes over the coals because a handful of people (most of whom were not wearing seatbelts) died when the airbags failed to go off because of an ignition switch malfunction.

abc_lisper 8y ago
> GM got rakes over the coal After many years of the incident.

gamblor956 8y ago

Tesla is held to a different standard because they whine like children when they're held to the same safety, financial, or operational standard as other automakers. They don't get to have their cake and eat it too until they prove they've earned it, and thus far they haven't by the metrics that matter to analysts or the public in general.

empath75 8y ago

Tesla’s numbers have been largely complete bullshit so I don’t see how it’s helpful.

dragonwriter 8y ago

> GM won't tell you any details about future plans for Bolt and other EVs. Tesla: "we'll make 10k by end of 2018". GM: we'll increase production, don't ask us when or by how much" EVs are now, and for several years into the future, a small part of GMs story. They are Tesla's whole story. So, yes, GM can afford to be less specific—heck, even less certain—of exactly what they are going to do in the EV market. > Netflix won't tell shareholders viewing numbers for any of their shows Netflix doesn't sell individual views of shows, nor does it sell products (e.g., advertising) to customers on the basis of any show’s viewership; that's about as relevant a stat for Netflix as the number of ceiling tiles in the headquarters building is for Tesla. Tesla sells electric cars, and a very small number of models of them.

jryle70 8y ago
> EVs are now, and for several years into the future, a small part of GMs story. They are Tesla's whole story. So, yes, GM can afford to be less specific—heck, even less certain—of exactly what they are going to do in the EV market. Not sure I understand your logic. Every business bar none likes to be seen as forward looking, future proof. The fact that GM keeps mum about their sole EV offering means they are behind Tesla, and likely others such as Nissan on this front. If they weren't I don't see why they couldn't say they'd make 500K of it by end of 2020, for example.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Because then you’d find out the Bolt is a compliance car and they’re unable to scale their EV production in any appreciable manner in the short term.

sgnelson 8y ago

At the same time, how much of the information that Musk gives out is wrong (especially on time frame?) They were already supposed to be at 10k cars a week. Live by the prediction, die by the prediction.

candiodari 8y ago

> They said they'll increase production of Bolt but refused to say by how much and by when. > Tone aside, it seems to me that Tesla is being measured here by a completely different stick. And if Elon Musk had made this argument during that earnings call, it would have been far better received than “We’re going to YouTube. These questions are so dry. They’re killing me.”