4 ms·

Pardon my utter ignorance/disbelief - are opioids killing/debilitating that many people to get this result?

bitexploder 8y ago
No. I would guess the biggest factor is our number one killer, heart disease. Healthy lifespan.... People live a long time with heart disease, but they are never healthy again. Same with many terminal cancers, etc.
- chimeracoder 8y ago
  > No. I would guess the biggest factor is our number one killer, heart disease. Healthy lifespan.... People live a long time with heart disease, but they are never healthy again. Same with many terminal cancers, etc. Those are the leading causes of death, but not the leading causes of the recent decline in life expectancy (heart disease has not contributed to a dramatic decrease is life expectancy). The recent decrease is due to deaths from drug overdoses. They aren't the leading cause of death, but they have caused the life expectancy to decrease in the last few years.
adventured 8y ago
60,000+ people are overdosing in the US. The Fentanyl China is dumping into the US killed 20,000 people in 2016, up from 3,000 just a few years prior. By comparison, Cocaine killed 10,000, Heroin killed 15,000, and prescription opiods killed 14,000. The reason it disproportionately impacts life expectancy, is because a lot of the people overdosing are young. If you suddenly have 250,000 people under 40 years of age overdosing over five years, you're going to see it in the life expectancy numbers even if your population is 320m. The small increases you'd expect to see in life expectancy year by year otherwise, will evaporate. To get a picture of the overall health impact (non overdose deaths), one would need to look at how many additional addicts the opioid explosion has caused (eg in the last 10-15 years), study the health impact over time on those people, and so on.
- kawaiikouhai 8y ago
  Some quick maths. an increase of +17k Fentanyl deaths in a year. Let's say they all died at 20. Of the ~2.5million annual deaths, which average to be life expectancy (78.8 years). Life expectancy goes down to 78.4. A net change of 0.4 years is not insignificant, but I think you're ignoring the elephant in the room (China's rapid development in the last decade). On another vein, I'd argue overdosing on drugs is an intrinsic part to the American experience.
  - nostrademons 8y ago
    That matches the observed life expectancy numbers in the article - U.S. life expectancy decreased from 79 years to 78.5 years.
- selimthegrim 8y ago
  In the eighties Iran used to blame its drug problems on the US - I don’t think blaming the US’ on China has any more logical footing
- DenisM 8y ago
  Fetanyl is a prescription opioid, why did you separate the two? And what does it have to with China "dumping" it? FDA approved Fetanyl and American doctors are prescribing it. It's on us to reign it in.

No. I would guess the biggest factor is our number one killer, heart disease. Healthy lifespan.... People live a long time with heart disease, but they are never healthy again. Same with many terminal cancers, etc.

chimeracoder 8y ago
> No. I would guess the biggest factor is our number one killer, heart disease. Healthy lifespan.... People live a long time with heart disease, but they are never healthy again. Same with many terminal cancers, etc. Those are the leading causes of death, but not the leading causes of the recent decline in life expectancy (heart disease has not contributed to a dramatic decrease is life expectancy). The recent decrease is due to deaths from drug overdoses. They aren't the leading cause of death, but they have caused the life expectancy to decrease in the last few years.

adventured 8y ago

60,000+ people are overdosing in the US. The Fentanyl China is dumping into the US killed 20,000 people in 2016, up from 3,000 just a few years prior. By comparison, Cocaine killed 10,000, Heroin killed 15,000, and prescription opiods killed 14,000. The reason it disproportionately impacts life expectancy, is because a lot of the people overdosing are young. If you suddenly have 250,000 people under 40 years of age overdosing over five years, you're going to see it in the life expectancy numbers even if your population is 320m. The small increases you'd expect to see in life expectancy year by year otherwise, will evaporate. To get a picture of the overall health impact (non overdose deaths), one would need to look at how many additional addicts the opioid explosion has caused (eg in the last 10-15 years), study the health impact over time on those people, and so on.

kawaiikouhai 8y ago
Some quick maths. an increase of +17k Fentanyl deaths in a year. Let's say they all died at 20. Of the ~2.5million annual deaths, which average to be life expectancy (78.8 years). Life expectancy goes down to 78.4. A net change of 0.4 years is not insignificant, but I think you're ignoring the elephant in the room (China's rapid development in the last decade). On another vein, I'd argue overdosing on drugs is an intrinsic part to the American experience.
- nostrademons 8y ago
  That matches the observed life expectancy numbers in the article - U.S. life expectancy decreased from 79 years to 78.5 years.
selimthegrim 8y ago
In the eighties Iran used to blame its drug problems on the US - I don’t think blaming the US’ on China has any more logical footing
DenisM 8y ago
Fetanyl is a prescription opioid, why did you separate the two? And what does it have to with China "dumping" it? FDA approved Fetanyl and American doctors are prescribing it. It's on us to reign it in.