4 ms·

I wonder if that's tracked to inflation. A $400 medical expense from 2013 is likely closer to $500 today, which might account for the difference from 50% to 40%

by Meegul 8y ago

I wonder if that's tracked to inflation. A $400 medical expense from 2013 is likely closer to $500 today, which might account for the difference from 50% to 40%.

nwj 8y ago
Inflation just hasn't been that high lately. $400 in 2013 dollars is $428.50 in 2018 dollars.
jsat 8y ago
Inflation has been historically low recently https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
twinkletwinkle 8y ago
The BLS calculator (https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm) says $400 in 2013 is ~ $430 today. Seems unlikely to account for that much of the change.
- onecooldev24 8y ago
  Govt inflation numbers represent a portfolio consisting of all commodities in equal quantity. But if you hold a portfolio of iPhones, Toyotas, and etc (assuming they are non depreciating assets) that number would double very easily.
  - aarongray 8y ago
    Government inflation numbers don't work like that at all. They are based on the Consumer Price Index, which uses a market basket of consumer goods and services. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
    - onecooldev24 8y ago
      "Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available." All of these are commodities. And every single product derived is based on commodity. Most commodities can be traded on commodity markets.
      - aarongray 8y ago
        Yes, but all of them being commodities (what I said) is not the same as inflation only being accurate when someone purchases every commodity available in the marketplace (what you said).
        onecooldev24 8y ago
        Thats exactly how asset managers construct a portfolio thats suppose to track inflation.
        aarongray 8y ago
        Inflation of a portfolio of iPhones is completely different than inflation that an average American pays due to cost of living changes in the economy. You're cherrypicking a hypothetical scenario that doesn't apply at all to the example at hand, which is the average person's ability to pay for emergencies that arise related to living expenses.
        onecooldev24 8y ago
        All I am saying is that $400 in 2013 is not worth $430 today, Its wort a LOT MORE! Stop arguing like a idiot.
        onecooldev24 8y ago
        doesnt this look like the chart of CPI https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/DBC https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/DBC https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri...
- Meegul 8y ago
  Yeah that's not too big of a change. Medical expenses, at least measured by national health expenditure per capita, have grown about 17% since then [1]. An additional 17% on $400 would be ~ $468. That number could be enough to account for some of the difference. Of course, medical expenses are by no means the only type of emergency expense, and what you've said about inflation as a whole is still true. 1: https://www.statista.com/statistics/184955/us-national-health-expenditures-per-capita-since-1960/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/184955/us-national-healt...
- arebop 8y ago
  Why does it seem unlikely? I don't know the shape of the distribution but it doesn't seem implausible to me that a 7.5% change in the threshold amount would correspond to a 10% change in the population quantile.
aarongray 8y ago
Sorry, but the recent inflation rate has been about 0-2% per year. A $400 medical expense in 2013 is about $430 today.
- lukeschlather 8y ago
  Medical expenses are going up much faster than inflation. At least 4% annually I think. Maybe as much as 6-8% on average since 2013? I see varying figures, but definitely not 0-2%.
  - aarongray 8y ago
    Average increases in nationwide medical expenses and inflations' effect on the average household are completely separate issues because the sickest 5 percent of the population consume 50 percent of total health care costs. The healthiest 50 percent only consume 3 percent of the nation's health care costs. Source: https://www.thebalance.com/causes-of-rising-healthcare-costs-4064878 https://www.thebalance.com/causes-of-rising-healthcare-costs...
- skookum 8y ago
  The inflation of medical expenses in the US significantly outpaces the standard measures of inflation that you're quoting, generally by at least 3%. The OPs estimate of $500 is much closer to reality than yours.
  - aarongray 8y ago
    See my reply here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17130287 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17130287
    - skookum 8y ago
      Quoting a factoid about the distribution of actual medical _spending_ doesn't change the incorrectness of projecting CPI onto medical _costs_. There are indices - the BLS maintains one and a number of actuarial firms publish others - that track the costs of various medical services and they all outpace CPI.

by Meegul 8y ago

I wonder if that's tracked to inflation. A $400 medical expense from 2013 is likely closer to $500 today, which might account for the difference from 50% to 40%.

nwj 8y ago

Inflation just hasn't been that high lately. $400 in 2013 dollars is $428.50 in 2018 dollars.

jsat 8y ago

Inflation has been historically low recently https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

twinkletwinkle 8y ago

The BLS calculator (https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm) says $400 in 2013 is ~ $430 today. Seems unlikely to account for that much of the change.

onecooldev24 8y ago
Govt inflation numbers represent a portfolio consisting of all commodities in equal quantity. But if you hold a portfolio of iPhones, Toyotas, and etc (assuming they are non depreciating assets) that number would double very easily.
- aarongray 8y ago
  Government inflation numbers don't work like that at all. They are based on the Consumer Price Index, which uses a market basket of consumer goods and services. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
  - onecooldev24 8y ago
    "Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available." All of these are commodities. And every single product derived is based on commodity. Most commodities can be traded on commodity markets.
    - aarongray 8y ago
      Yes, but all of them being commodities (what I said) is not the same as inflation only being accurate when someone purchases every commodity available in the marketplace (what you said).
      - onecooldev24 8y ago
        Thats exactly how asset managers construct a portfolio thats suppose to track inflation.
        aarongray 8y ago
        Inflation of a portfolio of iPhones is completely different than inflation that an average American pays due to cost of living changes in the economy. You're cherrypicking a hypothetical scenario that doesn't apply at all to the example at hand, which is the average person's ability to pay for emergencies that arise related to living expenses.
        onecooldev24 8y ago
        All I am saying is that $400 in 2013 is not worth $430 today, Its wort a LOT MORE! Stop arguing like a idiot.
      - onecooldev24 8y ago
        doesnt this look like the chart of CPI https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/DBC https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/DBC https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri...
Meegul 8y ago
Yeah that's not too big of a change. Medical expenses, at least measured by national health expenditure per capita, have grown about 17% since then [1]. An additional 17% on $400 would be ~ $468. That number could be enough to account for some of the difference. Of course, medical expenses are by no means the only type of emergency expense, and what you've said about inflation as a whole is still true. 1: https://www.statista.com/statistics/184955/us-national-health-expenditures-per-capita-since-1960/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/184955/us-national-healt...
arebop 8y ago
Why does it seem unlikely? I don't know the shape of the distribution but it doesn't seem implausible to me that a 7.5% change in the threshold amount would correspond to a 10% change in the population quantile.

aarongray 8y ago

Sorry, but the recent inflation rate has been about 0-2% per year. A $400 medical expense in 2013 is about $430 today.

lukeschlather 8y ago
Medical expenses are going up much faster than inflation. At least 4% annually I think. Maybe as much as 6-8% on average since 2013? I see varying figures, but definitely not 0-2%.
- aarongray 8y ago
  Average increases in nationwide medical expenses and inflations' effect on the average household are completely separate issues because the sickest 5 percent of the population consume 50 percent of total health care costs. The healthiest 50 percent only consume 3 percent of the nation's health care costs. Source: https://www.thebalance.com/causes-of-rising-healthcare-costs-4064878 https://www.thebalance.com/causes-of-rising-healthcare-costs...
skookum 8y ago
The inflation of medical expenses in the US significantly outpaces the standard measures of inflation that you're quoting, generally by at least 3%. The OPs estimate of $500 is much closer to reality than yours.
- aarongray 8y ago
  See my reply here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17130287 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17130287
  - skookum 8y ago
    Quoting a factoid about the distribution of actual medical _spending_ doesn't change the incorrectness of projecting CPI onto medical _costs_. There are indices - the BLS maintains one and a number of actuarial firms publish others - that track the costs of various medical services and they all outpace CPI.