8 ms·

China should have done this 5-8 years ago. It took the blocking of ZTE and Huawei in the US for China to realize that they don't have the fabrication capabiliti

by gkanai 8y ago

China should have done this 5-8 years ago. It took the blocking of ZTE and Huawei in the US for China to realize that they don't have the fabrication capabilities for the chips that they need (the most advanced chips are all US/JP/KR/TW built.) And no one wants to sell China that fab capability- so China will have to build/use corporate espionage to make it themselves. Even though it seemed expensive at the time, Masayoshi Son was smart to buy ARM.

desdiv 8y ago
>China should have done this 5-8 years ago. They did. Beijing handed out massive subsidies, companies started building fabs, and now those fabs are starting to come online in 2018[0]. Fabs take time to build. [0] https://epsnews.com/2018/04/26/three-chinese-companies-to-start-memory-ic-production-in-2018/ https://epsnews.com/2018/04/26/three-chinese-companies-to-st...
- baybal2 8y ago
  Best to say, that first gen Chinese fabs never went online to begin with. CSMC and Huali for example are a ghost towns (i worked few minutes away from both) They continued to throw tenths of billions at the problem, till they managed to make a minimally well running fabs for few niche markets.
netheril96 8y ago
China does have invested a large amount of money in semiconductor businesses over the years, of which 47B is just another. It makes some progress, such as the self-made SW26010 processors in Sunway TaihuLight, the current top one supercomputer in the world. But progress is hard for reasons other than money: * Late comers to the semiconductor industry can barely follow the trends, let alone lead. But if one cannot lead, it cannot survive in a free market. No one is going to buy a chip 3~5 years behind the latest technology when he/she has better choices. * Compatibility issues. China cannot grow its chip with x86 instruction set, at least not the latest one, for patent issues. That further reduces the possibility of commercial success of its own chips. * Semiconductor industry is now past its prime, the profit and salaries lower than the nascent Internet companies. Even in the US, plenty of EE students are jumping ship. In China, EE talents are doubly drained, by both American semiconductor industry, and by the local software industry. * The Wassenaar Arrangement bans the export of many high end equipments necessary for chip making to China. While all the other countries/regions can specialize in one part of the semiconductor industry, China has to do all of them by itself, since it has no external help. * The world politics dictate that Chinese firms are never going to buy ARM. They have the cash and the willingness, but western countries simply won't approve such buyout.
- dis-sys 8y ago
  > The Wassenaar Arrangement bans the export of many high end equipments necessary for chip making to China. While all the other countries/regions can specialize in one part of the semiconductor industry, China has to do all of them by itself, since it has no external help. Forcing your enemy to invest heavily in such key sectors is pretty stupid. Eventually, one way or another, Chinese will master the state-of-the-art. A few good examples here - LCD industry, weapons. It also worth pointing out that the existence of the Wassenaar Arrangement relies solely on the fact that the US is the biggest economic and military power in the world. Not sure how long the US can continue to maintain it.
  - npunt 8y ago
    Not sure its a guarantee that China will master the state-of-the-art of every important sector. China is aging at a very fast pace [1] as their workers are getting older and not being replaced (the tornado chart is pretty stark). This is going to slow the economy considerably. Given other more developed countries have a technology advantage that they're not sharing and they do not face a demographic crunch, its possible China will find themselves perpetually behind in many areas. [1] https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/ https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/
    - baybal2 8y ago
      >Not sure its a guarantee that China will master the state-of-the-art of every important sector. No, they don't need to to begin with. They are smart enough to not to parrot late USSR. Instead, it is seems more evident with each day that they use counterstrategy - sealing West's advancements in what will be the stem of state-of-the-art tech tomorrow, for cheap, instead of fighting for already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets.
      - netheril96 8y ago
        > Instead, it is seems more evident with each day that they use counterstrategy - sealing West's advancements in what will be the stem of state-of-the-art tech tomorrow, for cheap, instead of fighting for already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets. That used to be a working strategy. But now that ZTE was sanctioned by the US and almost crumbled overnight, it is obvious that the United States is capable and willing to throttle China on these "already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets". So China has no choice but to master the state-of-the-art of every important sector.
seanmcdirmid 8y ago
Isn't ARM fabless? If so, buying them would get you some design IP and talent, but not the ability to fab.
- esturk 8y ago
  You mean the same ARM that was acquired by SoftBank? A lot of people saw this coming and acted on it years ago.
finchisko 8y ago
>China should have done this 5-8 years ago. Like already someone commend. They did! It's called "Big Fund" and started in 2005. This is just another round. They already have been multiple rounds as far I know.
- ksec 8y ago
  There is quite a difference. In the old days, the "fund" aren't really put to use. They were given out very loosely, Many were grabbing it for their own self interest. With no results in sight, mostly just PR and stuns. These days you are require to prove. And there are people qualify to judge whether you are actually getting somewhere. That said, Semi Conductor is expensive, and requires lots talents and a whole IP ecosystem around it none of which China has. They are trying to paid to get these component and talent, copying and learning from it as we speak. But whether that works and how long it will take we have no idea. After all Semi moves at a very fast pace, by the time they caught up with 14nm, the world would have moved to 5nm.
boogeyman 8y ago
With ARM opening a subsidiary in China where 51% is owned by Chinese, i don't think they have to buy ARM to access the technologies. They will simply learn and copy.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

by gkanai 8y ago

desdiv 8y ago

>China should have done this 5-8 years ago. They did. Beijing handed out massive subsidies, companies started building fabs, and now those fabs are starting to come online in 2018[0]. Fabs take time to build. [0] https://epsnews.com/2018/04/26/three-chinese-companies-to-start-memory-ic-production-in-2018/ https://epsnews.com/2018/04/26/three-chinese-companies-to-st...

baybal2 8y ago
Best to say, that first gen Chinese fabs never went online to begin with. CSMC and Huali for example are a ghost towns (i worked few minutes away from both) They continued to throw tenths of billions at the problem, till they managed to make a minimally well running fabs for few niche markets.

netheril96 8y ago

China does have invested a large amount of money in semiconductor businesses over the years, of which 47B is just another. It makes some progress, such as the self-made SW26010 processors in Sunway TaihuLight, the current top one supercomputer in the world. But progress is hard for reasons other than money: * Late comers to the semiconductor industry can barely follow the trends, let alone lead. But if one cannot lead, it cannot survive in a free market. No one is going to buy a chip 3~5 years behind the latest technology when he/she has better choices. * Compatibility issues. China cannot grow its chip with x86 instruction set, at least not the latest one, for patent issues. That further reduces the possibility of commercial success of its own chips. * Semiconductor industry is now past its prime, the profit and salaries lower than the nascent Internet companies. Even in the US, plenty of EE students are jumping ship. In China, EE talents are doubly drained, by both American semiconductor industry, and by the local software industry. * The Wassenaar Arrangement bans the export of many high end equipments necessary for chip making to China. While all the other countries/regions can specialize in one part of the semiconductor industry, China has to do all of them by itself, since it has no external help. * The world politics dictate that Chinese firms are never going to buy ARM. They have the cash and the willingness, but western countries simply won't approve such buyout.

dis-sys 8y ago
> The Wassenaar Arrangement bans the export of many high end equipments necessary for chip making to China. While all the other countries/regions can specialize in one part of the semiconductor industry, China has to do all of them by itself, since it has no external help. Forcing your enemy to invest heavily in such key sectors is pretty stupid. Eventually, one way or another, Chinese will master the state-of-the-art. A few good examples here - LCD industry, weapons. It also worth pointing out that the existence of the Wassenaar Arrangement relies solely on the fact that the US is the biggest economic and military power in the world. Not sure how long the US can continue to maintain it.
- npunt 8y ago
  Not sure its a guarantee that China will master the state-of-the-art of every important sector. China is aging at a very fast pace [1] as their workers are getting older and not being replaced (the tornado chart is pretty stark). This is going to slow the economy considerably. Given other more developed countries have a technology advantage that they're not sharing and they do not face a demographic crunch, its possible China will find themselves perpetually behind in many areas. [1] https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/ https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/
  - baybal2 8y ago
    >Not sure its a guarantee that China will master the state-of-the-art of every important sector. No, they don't need to to begin with. They are smart enough to not to parrot late USSR. Instead, it is seems more evident with each day that they use counterstrategy - sealing West's advancements in what will be the stem of state-of-the-art tech tomorrow, for cheap, instead of fighting for already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets.
    - netheril96 8y ago
      > Instead, it is seems more evident with each day that they use counterstrategy - sealing West's advancements in what will be the stem of state-of-the-art tech tomorrow, for cheap, instead of fighting for already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets. That used to be a working strategy. But now that ZTE was sanctioned by the US and almost crumbled overnight, it is obvious that the United States is capable and willing to throttle China on these "already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets". So China has no choice but to master the state-of-the-art of every important sector.

seanmcdirmid 8y ago

Isn't ARM fabless? If so, buying them would get you some design IP and talent, but not the ability to fab.

esturk 8y ago
You mean the same ARM that was acquired by SoftBank? A lot of people saw this coming and acted on it years ago.

finchisko 8y ago

>China should have done this 5-8 years ago. Like already someone commend. They did! It's called "Big Fund" and started in 2005. This is just another round. They already have been multiple rounds as far I know.

ksec 8y ago
There is quite a difference. In the old days, the "fund" aren't really put to use. They were given out very loosely, Many were grabbing it for their own self interest. With no results in sight, mostly just PR and stuns. These days you are require to prove. And there are people qualify to judge whether you are actually getting somewhere. That said, Semi Conductor is expensive, and requires lots talents and a whole IP ecosystem around it none of which China has. They are trying to paid to get these component and talent, copying and learning from it as we speak. But whether that works and how long it will take we have no idea. After all Semi moves at a very fast pace, by the time they caught up with 14nm, the world would have moved to 5nm.

boogeyman 8y ago

With ARM opening a subsidiary in China where 51% is owned by Chinese, i don't think they have to buy ARM to access the technologies. They will simply learn and copy.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]