5 ms·

"the big story many are missing"? You mean, the fantasy you've concocted that may or may not come to pass in the long term? Sure, it would be great, I would be

"the big story many are missing"? You mean, the fantasy you've concocted that may or may not come to pass in the long term? Sure, it would be great, I would be thrilled, but why do you think that would happen anytime soon?

auganov 9y ago
It's an interesting angle to explore. Especially with respect to China. If you look at just denuclearization it's pretty unclear how China ties into it. Some think China can produce goodwill by "helping" with NK. That NK was a strain on the US-China relationship. But consider the possibility that NK doesn't just denuclearize but also falls out of China's orbit. Now it becomes clear diplomacy with NK could be a key part of Trump's anti-China policy. The talks are already moving at a pace very few predicted. China has already been bypassed. It might have been a crazy theory a month ago, not anymore. The momentum is there.
- opportune 9y ago
  I think this makes sense to a degree. Not that you couldn't see it from a hundred miles away, but given current trajectories and politics it seems inevitable that a US-China rivalry will define international geopolitics for the next several decades. It is not out of the question that NK would decide to flip over to what they may perceive as a side more likely to persevere, or more cynically, a side that may treat them better than they're currently aligned with. An increasingly strained US-China relationship put NK in a similar position to that which SK was in around the Korean War: a poor country that could be propped up by Western regimes not only as a quid-pro-quo for military alignment, but an example of what you get when you align yourself with the US (see also: Japan, Gulf states, Germany). NK's nuclear weapons give them a bargaining power that may be strong enough for the current leadership to remain in power or at least unharmed. Chasing the kind of wild economic success that SK experienced when propped up by the US is a no-brainer
adventured 9y ago
Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan are a lot more interested in being friends with the West than with China. Those are four of China's most prominent neighbors. Why would they all share that in common? Nobody over there wants to be China's puppet state, that will include North Korea if it decides to open up. That doesn't mean China won't have an outsized influence in trade and politics (it obviously will given its immense economy), however NK will very obviously aggressively seek to diversify its trading and become less dependent on China. The US is about to make Vietnam rich. As it did with Japan, South Korea, and China before it. NK will seek the same exact outcome.
- aerovistae 9y ago
  In what way is the US about to make the Vietnam rich? I have not heard of this.
  - adventured 9y ago
    US imports from Vietnam, 2003: $4.5 billion US imports from Vietnam, 2017: $46 billion To put that last figure into context, that's equal to the US imports from France, which has a $2.5 trillion economy (~22 times larger than Vietnam), and is nearly equal to the imports from the UK. Extrapolate that forward, with the assumption of a slowed rate of growth. It's the exact same way the US made Japan and South Korea rich, through massive imports, capital investment, and the corresponding industrial build-out. US imports from Vietnam will be close to equal to 25% of their entire economy this year. Vietnam's present economic boom, is almost exclusively due to the huge boom in US imports. The US is building out their industrial capability, which will spur further build-out and advancement, and on it will cycle. China is an economic competitor with Vietnam. They of course also have a long history of not liking each other. The development of Vietnam makes both practical sense for the US in terms of manufacturing costs, and strategic sense to build-up local rivals to China (or more generally strengthening the region against a Chinese hegemony in Asia). All the US has to do is point some of its import demand away from China and at Vietnam or other local nations. China's manufacturing costs are far higher now than they used to be, they're non-competitive in many things now on cost. Vietnam has even begun to steal away large volumes of tech manufacturing, for eg smartphones. It's further worth noting, the trade with Vietnam is about as one-way as it gets (and note that the US isn't complaining about it, that's because it's strategically desirable for now to rapidly advance Vietnam). Vietnam only imported $8.1 billion worth of US goods in 2017. So Vietnam is being showered with a flood of dollars. That will serve two outcomes for the US: it continues to bolster the US dollar's global role, and Vietnam can purchase US treasuries with their mountain of dollars, as Japan and China did and for the exact same reason.
caf 9y ago
Would it be great? It seems to me that the day there's a US client state on the banks of the Yalu River is the day that you know the countdown to the next world war has begun.
- pm90 9y ago
  Well, technically a pro-US regime in Japan and Taiwan have been right across some very narrow straits for over 8 decades now with no such Wars. Maybe it isn't that big of a deal.
  - caf 9y ago
    Korea is an historical lauching point for invasions of both China and Japan. It's the Poland of North Asia, always caught between empires.
- AnimalMuppet 9y ago
  Why would it be a US client state? There's only one reason why: If it felt threatened by China. If you're China, and you don't want a unified Korea to have US troops stationed in it, make it clear that you don't threaten it.
  - caf 9y ago
    The GP wasn't talking about a unified Korea, it said "...completely flip NK into a pro-western nation". Regardless, I'm not China, and I'm not commenting on where the blame should be sheeted home; I am just commenting on the geopolitical instability of the whole Korean peninsula being dominated by a rival great power to China (the same is true if it were to be entirely dominated by rival powers to Japan, incidentally).
cryptonector 9y ago
The current events too were a fantasy, were they not? I agree that Kim's preferred outcome is almost certainly to remain in control in NK. But it may not happen. If his regime falls due to internal pressures after denuclearization, why wouldn't we expect NK to join the West? Why would we expect Kim's regime to continue to survive after denuclearization?

auganov 9y ago

It's an interesting angle to explore. Especially with respect to China. If you look at just denuclearization it's pretty unclear how China ties into it. Some think China can produce goodwill by "helping" with NK. That NK was a strain on the US-China relationship. But consider the possibility that NK doesn't just denuclearize but also falls out of China's orbit. Now it becomes clear diplomacy with NK could be a key part of Trump's anti-China policy. The talks are already moving at a pace very few predicted. China has already been bypassed. It might have been a crazy theory a month ago, not anymore. The momentum is there.

opportune 9y ago
I think this makes sense to a degree. Not that you couldn't see it from a hundred miles away, but given current trajectories and politics it seems inevitable that a US-China rivalry will define international geopolitics for the next several decades. It is not out of the question that NK would decide to flip over to what they may perceive as a side more likely to persevere, or more cynically, a side that may treat them better than they're currently aligned with. An increasingly strained US-China relationship put NK in a similar position to that which SK was in around the Korean War: a poor country that could be propped up by Western regimes not only as a quid-pro-quo for military alignment, but an example of what you get when you align yourself with the US (see also: Japan, Gulf states, Germany). NK's nuclear weapons give them a bargaining power that may be strong enough for the current leadership to remain in power or at least unharmed. Chasing the kind of wild economic success that SK experienced when propped up by the US is a no-brainer

adventured 9y ago

Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan are a lot more interested in being friends with the West than with China. Those are four of China's most prominent neighbors. Why would they all share that in common? Nobody over there wants to be China's puppet state, that will include North Korea if it decides to open up. That doesn't mean China won't have an outsized influence in trade and politics (it obviously will given its immense economy), however NK will very obviously aggressively seek to diversify its trading and become less dependent on China. The US is about to make Vietnam rich. As it did with Japan, South Korea, and China before it. NK will seek the same exact outcome.

aerovistae 9y ago
In what way is the US about to make the Vietnam rich? I have not heard of this.
- adventured 9y ago
  US imports from Vietnam, 2003: $4.5 billion US imports from Vietnam, 2017: $46 billion To put that last figure into context, that's equal to the US imports from France, which has a $2.5 trillion economy (~22 times larger than Vietnam), and is nearly equal to the imports from the UK. Extrapolate that forward, with the assumption of a slowed rate of growth. It's the exact same way the US made Japan and South Korea rich, through massive imports, capital investment, and the corresponding industrial build-out. US imports from Vietnam will be close to equal to 25% of their entire economy this year. Vietnam's present economic boom, is almost exclusively due to the huge boom in US imports. The US is building out their industrial capability, which will spur further build-out and advancement, and on it will cycle. China is an economic competitor with Vietnam. They of course also have a long history of not liking each other. The development of Vietnam makes both practical sense for the US in terms of manufacturing costs, and strategic sense to build-up local rivals to China (or more generally strengthening the region against a Chinese hegemony in Asia). All the US has to do is point some of its import demand away from China and at Vietnam or other local nations. China's manufacturing costs are far higher now than they used to be, they're non-competitive in many things now on cost. Vietnam has even begun to steal away large volumes of tech manufacturing, for eg smartphones. It's further worth noting, the trade with Vietnam is about as one-way as it gets (and note that the US isn't complaining about it, that's because it's strategically desirable for now to rapidly advance Vietnam). Vietnam only imported $8.1 billion worth of US goods in 2017. So Vietnam is being showered with a flood of dollars. That will serve two outcomes for the US: it continues to bolster the US dollar's global role, and Vietnam can purchase US treasuries with their mountain of dollars, as Japan and China did and for the exact same reason.

caf 9y ago

Would it be great? It seems to me that the day there's a US client state on the banks of the Yalu River is the day that you know the countdown to the next world war has begun.

pm90 9y ago
Well, technically a pro-US regime in Japan and Taiwan have been right across some very narrow straits for over 8 decades now with no such Wars. Maybe it isn't that big of a deal.
- caf 9y ago
  Korea is an historical lauching point for invasions of both China and Japan. It's the Poland of North Asia, always caught between empires.
AnimalMuppet 9y ago
Why would it be a US client state? There's only one reason why: If it felt threatened by China. If you're China, and you don't want a unified Korea to have US troops stationed in it, make it clear that you don't threaten it.
- caf 9y ago
  The GP wasn't talking about a unified Korea, it said "...completely flip NK into a pro-western nation". Regardless, I'm not China, and I'm not commenting on where the blame should be sheeted home; I am just commenting on the geopolitical instability of the whole Korean peninsula being dominated by a rival great power to China (the same is true if it were to be entirely dominated by rival powers to Japan, incidentally).

cryptonector 9y ago

The current events too were a fantasy, were they not? I agree that Kim's preferred outcome is almost certainly to remain in control in NK. But it may not happen. If his regime falls due to internal pressures after denuclearization, why wouldn't we expect NK to join the West? Why would we expect Kim's regime to continue to survive after denuclearization?