4 ms·

The big story I think many are missing is - what happens if the US+SK manages to completely flip NK into a pro-western nation.

Shivetya 9y ago
Well, can we buy the NK leadership out? By that I mean convince them to get on a path of full integration with the South leading. It would take some guarantees of protection from prosecution and as well insuring their lifestyles. All costs well worth it to free a nation from the situation they are in.
- umanwizard 9y ago
  Why should they trust us to keep our end of the bargain?
mathgeek 9y ago
I have to admit... this is the first time in my life I've considered peaceful reunification as a realistic possibility.
- aerovistae 9y ago
  But consider this: what would happen to the Kim family if reunification occurred? He would have to be tried for crimes against humanity, and if he realized he was going to be sent to prison, why would he go without a fight? How could this possibly come to pass? The only way it could happen would be if he were completely pardoned, which is logical if it benefits the greater good at no further cost, but very against human nature. In all likelihood, by his perception, he's done nothing wrong! So...it won't be something to discuss, for him. It would be a great offense and a threat.
  - eadmund 9y ago
    > The only way it could happen would be if he were completely pardoned, which is logical if it benefits the greater good at no further cost, but very against human nature. It's happened in the past, e.g. with Pinochet — and later on the Spaniards went after him anyway, in spite of the amnesty and in spite of the bad example this would set for future dictators.
  - burfog 9y ago
    This is key. Kim is currently trapped, unable to relax his control because that would get him killed. Kim knows that being a rich person in South Korea is mighty good. That may be his goal, but getting there won't be easy.
- riffraff 9y ago
  normalization of relationships even in absence of unification is more likely but effectively almost as good.
aerovistae 9y ago
"the big story many are missing"? You mean, the fantasy you've concocted that may or may not come to pass in the long term? Sure, it would be great, I would be thrilled, but why do you think that would happen anytime soon?
- auganov 9y ago
  It's an interesting angle to explore. Especially with respect to China. If you look at just denuclearization it's pretty unclear how China ties into it. Some think China can produce goodwill by "helping" with NK. That NK was a strain on the US-China relationship. But consider the possibility that NK doesn't just denuclearize but also falls out of China's orbit. Now it becomes clear diplomacy with NK could be a key part of Trump's anti-China policy. The talks are already moving at a pace very few predicted. China has already been bypassed. It might have been a crazy theory a month ago, not anymore. The momentum is there.
  - opportune 9y ago
    I think this makes sense to a degree. Not that you couldn't see it from a hundred miles away, but given current trajectories and politics it seems inevitable that a US-China rivalry will define international geopolitics for the next several decades. It is not out of the question that NK would decide to flip over to what they may perceive as a side more likely to persevere, or more cynically, a side that may treat them better than they're currently aligned with. An increasingly strained US-China relationship put NK in a similar position to that which SK was in around the Korean War: a poor country that could be propped up by Western regimes not only as a quid-pro-quo for military alignment, but an example of what you get when you align yourself with the US (see also: Japan, Gulf states, Germany). NK's nuclear weapons give them a bargaining power that may be strong enough for the current leadership to remain in power or at least unharmed. Chasing the kind of wild economic success that SK experienced when propped up by the US is a no-brainer
- adventured 9y ago
  Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan are a lot more interested in being friends with the West than with China. Those are four of China's most prominent neighbors. Why would they all share that in common? Nobody over there wants to be China's puppet state, that will include North Korea if it decides to open up. That doesn't mean China won't have an outsized influence in trade and politics (it obviously will given its immense economy), however NK will very obviously aggressively seek to diversify its trading and become less dependent on China. The US is about to make Vietnam rich. As it did with Japan, South Korea, and China before it. NK will seek the same exact outcome.
almostApatriot1 9y ago
Or maybe this a coordinated effort between Xi Jinping and Kim to get the US out of the area completely, so that Kim could run under Xi Jinping's new, better model of an authoritarian government.
- noetic_techy 9y ago
  Nailed it. Its the only logical conclusion I can come to myself. People want to pretend that an armored train trip to China didn't occur just before all this.
hencq 9y ago
I don't think anybody is missing that story. One of the reasons China has been very reluctant to commit to an actual peace process is the fear of American troops at its border after a reunification (oh South Korean terms).

Shivetya 9y ago

Well, can we buy the NK leadership out? By that I mean convince them to get on a path of full integration with the South leading. It would take some guarantees of protection from prosecution and as well insuring their lifestyles. All costs well worth it to free a nation from the situation they are in.

umanwizard 9y ago
Why should they trust us to keep our end of the bargain?

mathgeek 9y ago

I have to admit... this is the first time in my life I've considered peaceful reunification as a realistic possibility.

aerovistae 9y ago
But consider this: what would happen to the Kim family if reunification occurred? He would have to be tried for crimes against humanity, and if he realized he was going to be sent to prison, why would he go without a fight? How could this possibly come to pass? The only way it could happen would be if he were completely pardoned, which is logical if it benefits the greater good at no further cost, but very against human nature. In all likelihood, by his perception, he's done nothing wrong! So...it won't be something to discuss, for him. It would be a great offense and a threat.
- eadmund 9y ago
  > The only way it could happen would be if he were completely pardoned, which is logical if it benefits the greater good at no further cost, but very against human nature. It's happened in the past, e.g. with Pinochet — and later on the Spaniards went after him anyway, in spite of the amnesty and in spite of the bad example this would set for future dictators.
- burfog 9y ago
  This is key. Kim is currently trapped, unable to relax his control because that would get him killed. Kim knows that being a rich person in South Korea is mighty good. That may be his goal, but getting there won't be easy.
riffraff 9y ago
normalization of relationships even in absence of unification is more likely but effectively almost as good.

aerovistae 9y ago

"the big story many are missing"? You mean, the fantasy you've concocted that may or may not come to pass in the long term? Sure, it would be great, I would be thrilled, but why do you think that would happen anytime soon?

auganov 9y ago
It's an interesting angle to explore. Especially with respect to China. If you look at just denuclearization it's pretty unclear how China ties into it. Some think China can produce goodwill by "helping" with NK. That NK was a strain on the US-China relationship. But consider the possibility that NK doesn't just denuclearize but also falls out of China's orbit. Now it becomes clear diplomacy with NK could be a key part of Trump's anti-China policy. The talks are already moving at a pace very few predicted. China has already been bypassed. It might have been a crazy theory a month ago, not anymore. The momentum is there.
- opportune 9y ago
  I think this makes sense to a degree. Not that you couldn't see it from a hundred miles away, but given current trajectories and politics it seems inevitable that a US-China rivalry will define international geopolitics for the next several decades. It is not out of the question that NK would decide to flip over to what they may perceive as a side more likely to persevere, or more cynically, a side that may treat them better than they're currently aligned with. An increasingly strained US-China relationship put NK in a similar position to that which SK was in around the Korean War: a poor country that could be propped up by Western regimes not only as a quid-pro-quo for military alignment, but an example of what you get when you align yourself with the US (see also: Japan, Gulf states, Germany). NK's nuclear weapons give them a bargaining power that may be strong enough for the current leadership to remain in power or at least unharmed. Chasing the kind of wild economic success that SK experienced when propped up by the US is a no-brainer
adventured 9y ago
Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan are a lot more interested in being friends with the West than with China. Those are four of China's most prominent neighbors. Why would they all share that in common? Nobody over there wants to be China's puppet state, that will include North Korea if it decides to open up. That doesn't mean China won't have an outsized influence in trade and politics (it obviously will given its immense economy), however NK will very obviously aggressively seek to diversify its trading and become less dependent on China. The US is about to make Vietnam rich. As it did with Japan, South Korea, and China before it. NK will seek the same exact outcome.

almostApatriot1 9y ago

Or maybe this a coordinated effort between Xi Jinping and Kim to get the US out of the area completely, so that Kim could run under Xi Jinping's new, better model of an authoritarian government.

noetic_techy 9y ago
Nailed it. Its the only logical conclusion I can come to myself. People want to pretend that an armored train trip to China didn't occur just before all this.

hencq 9y ago

I don't think anybody is missing that story. One of the reasons China has been very reluctant to commit to an actual peace process is the fear of American troops at its border after a reunification (oh South Korean terms).