5 ms·

Solar and oil (and natural gas) supply different markets and compete mostly at the margins.

toomuchtodo 9y ago
When I say fossil fuel generation, that's peakers (single cycle natural gas or fuel oil/diesel/heavy oil) or baseload coal or natural gas. Maybe I'm mistaken by what you said? Solar and wind are already pushing coal and nuclear into unprofitable territory; you don't have to push them out entirely before fossil generators are no longer economical to run. You only need to push hard enough to create a downward spiral which causes utility scale battery storage to be cheaper (by soaking up power when prices are at zero or negative, and then discharging when there's demand). Large fossil generators can't run only half the day and still make money. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/renewables-are-starting-to-crush-aging-u-s-nukes-coal-plants https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/renewable... https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/25/cost-of-solar-power-vs-cost-of-wind-power-coal-nuclear-natural-gas/ https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/25/cost-of-solar-power-vs-...
- Gibbon1 9y ago
  Natural gas killed coal and nuclear because natural gas plants have a) much lower capital costs. b) Can sell into the intermediate load market. c) natural gas is cheaper per MBTU than coal. If you wonder why the Koch brother hate solar it's because Solar directly competes with natural gas in the intermediate load market. Which is where all the profit is.
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    Natural gas does have lower capital costs, but its clear the demand isn't there. Witness GE laying off large swaths of its gas turbine division [1] (and as Bloomberg puts it, "Gas-turbine maker hurt by slowdown as renewables gain ground"). Natural gas is cheaper than coal currently [2]. Depending on demand and fracking, it may not stay cheap. That spot market price spike is when batteries will make in roads. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-is-said-to-plan-12-000-job-cuts-as-new-ceo-revamps-power-unit https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-is-sai... [2] https://ycharts.com/indicators/natural_gas_spot_price https://ycharts.com/indicators/natural_gas_spot_price
    - Gibbon1 9y ago
      > but its clear the demand isn't there. That's because the cost of solar and wind are dropping fast creating the following cost hierarchy Wind -> Solar -> Nat Gas -> Coal -> Nuclear
  - mr_spothawk 9y ago
    I downed this comment because u wrote: “Koch bros hate solar” Ur repeating something, I guess... but it’s totally not sourced. I read a rolling stone article before posting this message that suggested they fund ALEC, but that same article seems to hate on "profit" in a way i have difficulty relating to. I’d bet even SolarCity funded ALEC.
    - Gibbon1 9y ago
      > ALEC You brought that up not me. My source is a lawyer that used to work on utility regulation for a state I'm not naming.
- danmaz74 9y ago
  With uncontrollable sources like solar and wind, aren't peakers even more necessary?
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
    Hydro with a reservoir is a good peaker, which often happens to be more plentiful in roughly the same areas where solar and wind are also abundant.

When I say fossil fuel generation, that's peakers (single cycle natural gas or fuel oil/diesel/heavy oil) or baseload coal or natural gas. Maybe I'm mistaken by what you said? Solar and wind are already pushing coal and nuclear into unprofitable territory; you don't have to push them out entirely before fossil generators are no longer economical to run. You only need to push hard enough to create a downward spiral which causes utility scale battery storage to be cheaper (by soaking up power when prices are at zero or negative, and then discharging when there's demand). Large fossil generators can't run only half the day and still make money. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/renewables-are-starting-to-crush-aging-u-s-nukes-coal-plants https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/renewable... https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/25/cost-of-solar-power-vs-cost-of-wind-power-coal-nuclear-natural-gas/ https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/25/cost-of-solar-power-vs-...

Gibbon1 9y ago
Natural gas killed coal and nuclear because natural gas plants have a) much lower capital costs. b) Can sell into the intermediate load market. c) natural gas is cheaper per MBTU than coal. If you wonder why the Koch brother hate solar it's because Solar directly competes with natural gas in the intermediate load market. Which is where all the profit is.
- toomuchtodo 9y ago
  Natural gas does have lower capital costs, but its clear the demand isn't there. Witness GE laying off large swaths of its gas turbine division [1] (and as Bloomberg puts it, "Gas-turbine maker hurt by slowdown as renewables gain ground"). Natural gas is cheaper than coal currently [2]. Depending on demand and fracking, it may not stay cheap. That spot market price spike is when batteries will make in roads. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-is-said-to-plan-12-000-job-cuts-as-new-ceo-revamps-power-unit https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-is-sai... [2] https://ycharts.com/indicators/natural_gas_spot_price https://ycharts.com/indicators/natural_gas_spot_price
  - Gibbon1 9y ago
    > but its clear the demand isn't there. That's because the cost of solar and wind are dropping fast creating the following cost hierarchy Wind -> Solar -> Nat Gas -> Coal -> Nuclear
- mr_spothawk 9y ago
  I downed this comment because u wrote: “Koch bros hate solar” Ur repeating something, I guess... but it’s totally not sourced. I read a rolling stone article before posting this message that suggested they fund ALEC, but that same article seems to hate on "profit" in a way i have difficulty relating to. I’d bet even SolarCity funded ALEC.
  - Gibbon1 9y ago
    > ALEC You brought that up not me. My source is a lawyer that used to work on utility regulation for a state I'm not naming.
danmaz74 9y ago
With uncontrollable sources like solar and wind, aren't peakers even more necessary?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  Hydro with a reservoir is a good peaker, which often happens to be more plentiful in roughly the same areas where solar and wind are also abundant.