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> they try to automate all manufacturing instead of doing what everyone else is doing I like how this whole argument hinges on the idea that companies like Toy

by s2g 9y ago

> they try to automate all manufacturing instead of doing what everyone else is doing I like how this whole argument hinges on the idea that companies like Toyota don't know how to Automate. Not like they are the world standard in manufacturing efficiency or anything.

jacobush 9y ago
Ehm, they are the world standard in manufacturing, and that standard rather famously includes letting humans do a lot of the general assembly. No one is raining on Toyota, they are excellent at almost everything. Musk is trying to beat the standard.
- talltimtom 9y ago
  Yea, but sadly he’s going about “beating” the standard using the mantra robots are better than humans, which is just not true. When you have a process that’s not a bottleneck, with enough throughput that’s cheaper to do manual, the only thing you do by using robots is throw away money, increase your potential for breakdowns and remove flexibility. Musk is acting exactly like the classical Lean “dufus” who forgets to analyze his process and considers robots a goal in the self instead of minimizing waste and optimizing throughput. Tesla isn’t pushing the standards, they’re not even playing in the same league as Toyota and other established manufacturers. But they sure are good at hyping their flawed methodology.
  - Animats 9y ago
    Tesla is so secretive that nobody outside really has a clue what the problems are. Even the automotive trade press doesn't know. There are so many possibilities. As I wrote last time this came up, Tesla would probably be better off letting some competent automotive reporters tour the plant. Right now, investors are assuming the worst. What's surprising is that Tesla is also having trouble with battery pack manufacturing. That's far simpler than building a car. It's a good job for robots, building identical units made of a large number of the same components.
  - jacobush 9y ago
    I don't think Musk is running different companies at all. They are all the same, working towards the same goal - a city on Mars. Such a thing, should really benefit from totally automated factories.
- piyushpr134 9y ago
  You know that Tesla uses way more people per car than say a GM or Toyota in their assembly line...right ? This number may go down in the future but it is a fact right now. Don't take my word for this: http://www.autonews.com/article/20170611/OEM01/170619951/teslas-real-capacity-problem:-too-many-people http://www.autonews.com/article/20170611/OEM01/170619951/tes... It's because in this temple of lean manufacturing, Tesla uses far more workers than NUMMI employed to build far fewer cars. In 1985, its first full year of production, NUMMI had 2,470 employees and produced 64,764 vehicles — about 26 vehicles per worker per year. By 1997, it had 4,844 workers and produced 357,809 vehicles — about 74 vehicles per worker per year. Tesla, on the other hand, had between 6,000 and 10,000 workers in 2016 and manufactured 83,922 vehicles. That puts its vehicle-per-worker number between 8 and 14, about one-seventh the efficiency of NUMMI at its peak.
  - cma 9y ago
    Does that include retail workers (no outsourced dealers)? Supercharger installation workers? SolarCity employees and salespeople?
- mschuster91 9y ago
  > Musk is trying to beat the standard. And I would not be surprised if part of this will be a massive simplification of the current "cable trees" with cables from each component to the central fuse board to something like 2 24V power rails and 2 high speed data buses (one for safety critical stuff, the rest for everything else), with plugs every 20-30cm or so, fuses inside the components themselves and everything controlled with intelligent boards in the components. Installing the cabling tree is inarguably one of the most complex parts in building (or, for what it's worth, servicing/maintaining/extending) a car and also the part where you right now need humans in the loop. By including the power rails e.g. directly in the car's composite frame and only running a tiny strand of wire for the bus you save a boatload of money.
  - jacobush 9y ago
    I kind of assumed they already did that. It's so obvious and also rather SpaceX.
- danmaz74 9y ago
  For your information, both Toyota and other automakers already tried the "automate all" approach, and they reverted because the economics didn't work out. This time it might be different, or it might not.
te_chris 9y ago
Apparently on HN advances only happen if Elon tweets about them.
takeda 9y ago
I'm not sure if you read the article or not, they are attributing the slow down Tesla has in production because apparently Tesla is betting on automating everything related to production as opposed to what other automobile companies do which is only automating things that are easy to automate and make people do the rest.

by s2g 9y ago

jacobush 9y ago

Ehm, they are the world standard in manufacturing, and that standard rather famously includes letting humans do a lot of the general assembly. No one is raining on Toyota, they are excellent at almost everything. Musk is trying to beat the standard.

talltimtom 9y ago
Yea, but sadly he’s going about “beating” the standard using the mantra robots are better than humans, which is just not true. When you have a process that’s not a bottleneck, with enough throughput that’s cheaper to do manual, the only thing you do by using robots is throw away money, increase your potential for breakdowns and remove flexibility. Musk is acting exactly like the classical Lean “dufus” who forgets to analyze his process and considers robots a goal in the self instead of minimizing waste and optimizing throughput. Tesla isn’t pushing the standards, they’re not even playing in the same league as Toyota and other established manufacturers. But they sure are good at hyping their flawed methodology.
- Animats 9y ago
  Tesla is so secretive that nobody outside really has a clue what the problems are. Even the automotive trade press doesn't know. There are so many possibilities. As I wrote last time this came up, Tesla would probably be better off letting some competent automotive reporters tour the plant. Right now, investors are assuming the worst. What's surprising is that Tesla is also having trouble with battery pack manufacturing. That's far simpler than building a car. It's a good job for robots, building identical units made of a large number of the same components.
- jacobush 9y ago
  I don't think Musk is running different companies at all. They are all the same, working towards the same goal - a city on Mars. Such a thing, should really benefit from totally automated factories.
piyushpr134 9y ago
You know that Tesla uses way more people per car than say a GM or Toyota in their assembly line...right ? This number may go down in the future but it is a fact right now. Don't take my word for this: http://www.autonews.com/article/20170611/OEM01/170619951/teslas-real-capacity-problem:-too-many-people http://www.autonews.com/article/20170611/OEM01/170619951/tes... It's because in this temple of lean manufacturing, Tesla uses far more workers than NUMMI employed to build far fewer cars. In 1985, its first full year of production, NUMMI had 2,470 employees and produced 64,764 vehicles — about 26 vehicles per worker per year. By 1997, it had 4,844 workers and produced 357,809 vehicles — about 74 vehicles per worker per year. Tesla, on the other hand, had between 6,000 and 10,000 workers in 2016 and manufactured 83,922 vehicles. That puts its vehicle-per-worker number between 8 and 14, about one-seventh the efficiency of NUMMI at its peak.
- cma 9y ago
  Does that include retail workers (no outsourced dealers)? Supercharger installation workers? SolarCity employees and salespeople?
mschuster91 9y ago
> Musk is trying to beat the standard. And I would not be surprised if part of this will be a massive simplification of the current "cable trees" with cables from each component to the central fuse board to something like 2 24V power rails and 2 high speed data buses (one for safety critical stuff, the rest for everything else), with plugs every 20-30cm or so, fuses inside the components themselves and everything controlled with intelligent boards in the components. Installing the cabling tree is inarguably one of the most complex parts in building (or, for what it's worth, servicing/maintaining/extending) a car and also the part where you right now need humans in the loop. By including the power rails e.g. directly in the car's composite frame and only running a tiny strand of wire for the bus you save a boatload of money.
- jacobush 9y ago
  I kind of assumed they already did that. It's so obvious and also rather SpaceX.
danmaz74 9y ago
For your information, both Toyota and other automakers already tried the "automate all" approach, and they reverted because the economics didn't work out. This time it might be different, or it might not.

te_chris 9y ago

Apparently on HN advances only happen if Elon tweets about them.

takeda 9y ago

I'm not sure if you read the article or not, they are attributing the slow down Tesla has in production because apparently Tesla is betting on automating everything related to production as opposed to what other automobile companies do which is only automating things that are easy to automate and make people do the rest.