6 ms·

Ask HN: What is the next housing bubble?

10 points by RyanShook 9y ago

Are there any leading indicators that point to a recession in 2018?

nabla9 9y ago
Securities-based loans aka shadow margin. It seems that nobody tracks them, so it's possible that there is something brewing. If there is strong stock market correction, and loans must be paid back people get into trouble.
- RyanShook 9y ago
  I wonder how common this kind of loan is? Article from Kiplinger about security-based loans: https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T035-C000-S004-securities-based-loans-are-risky-business.html https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T035-C000-S004-s...
aprdm 9y ago
There is a report by UBS for what it is worth: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/features/global-real-estate-bubble-index-2017.html https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-invest... US seems to be """safe""" as per the report.
AnimalMuppet 9y ago
It might be housing. I'm seeing those "real estate investor seeks trainee" hand-made signs at intersections again. People are placing offers on houses sight-unseen because houses are moving so fast. The only thing missing is extremely low percentage down payments; does anyone know if 3% down is back?
kspaans 9y ago
Don't forget to look North. The housing bubble in Canada never popped in the first place.
- jackgolding 9y ago
  Same with Australia.
  - hodl 9y ago
    Esp. Sydney although that's now deflating a bit.
api 9y ago
Housing could already be in a bubble in some places. It's far beyond what's reasonable vs. median income and is reportedly being propped up by a huge amount of foreign cash making cash purchases. A lot of commentators I've read say we're not in a bubble because these are cash purchases, but this assumes there's an infinite supply of this cash. If/when the cash influx stops the present prices may not be sustainable. I doubt it would be as hard a landing as 2008 but you could definitely see a correction.
bkcreate 9y ago
Car companies are offering ridiculous deals, and giving out loans to people that don't have good credit. If I had to guess, they didn't learn their lesson and will be in deep trouble again.
cylinder 9y ago
The US will get there again. Other countries are clamping down on lending to contain house prices while the US is opening up lending once again. And you can trust they'll do it recklessly again too.
Antifragile1 9y ago
Overvalued tech companies are the next bubble.
rajacombinator 9y ago
Same one as before.
SirLJ 9y ago
Bitcoin and blockchain
bsvalley 9y ago
No bubble, but higher interest rates will drag the prices down. People won’t be able to afford the same house at 5-8% interest rate. Experts predict a hike to at least 5% by the end of this year. So, more likely a price drop not a bubble.

10 points by RyanShook 9y ago

Are there any leading indicators that point to a recession in 2018?

Securities-based loans aka shadow margin. It seems that nobody tracks them, so it's possible that there is something brewing. If there is strong stock market correction, and loans must be paid back people get into trouble.

RyanShook 9y ago
I wonder how common this kind of loan is? Article from Kiplinger about security-based loans: https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T035-C000-S004-securities-based-loans-are-risky-business.html https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T035-C000-S004-s...

aprdm 9y ago

There is a report by UBS for what it is worth: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/features/global-real-estate-bubble-index-2017.html https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-invest... US seems to be """safe""" as per the report.

AnimalMuppet 9y ago

It might be housing. I'm seeing those "real estate investor seeks trainee" hand-made signs at intersections again. People are placing offers on houses sight-unseen because houses are moving so fast. The only thing missing is extremely low percentage down payments; does anyone know if 3% down is back?

kspaans 9y ago

Don't forget to look North. The housing bubble in Canada never popped in the first place.

jackgolding 9y ago
Same with Australia.
- hodl 9y ago
  Esp. Sydney although that's now deflating a bit.

api 9y ago

Housing could already be in a bubble in some places. It's far beyond what's reasonable vs. median income and is reportedly being propped up by a huge amount of foreign cash making cash purchases. A lot of commentators I've read say we're not in a bubble because these are cash purchases, but this assumes there's an infinite supply of this cash. If/when the cash influx stops the present prices may not be sustainable. I doubt it would be as hard a landing as 2008 but you could definitely see a correction.

bkcreate 9y ago

Car companies are offering ridiculous deals, and giving out loans to people that don't have good credit. If I had to guess, they didn't learn their lesson and will be in deep trouble again.

cylinder 9y ago

The US will get there again. Other countries are clamping down on lending to contain house prices while the US is opening up lending once again. And you can trust they'll do it recklessly again too.

Antifragile1 9y ago

Overvalued tech companies are the next bubble.

rajacombinator 9y ago

Same one as before.

SirLJ 9y ago

Bitcoin and blockchain

bsvalley 9y ago

No bubble, but higher interest rates will drag the prices down. People won’t be able to afford the same house at 5-8% interest rate. Experts predict a hike to at least 5% by the end of this year. So, more likely a price drop not a bubble.