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It is clear that Tesla is failing to deliver any competitive advantage besides its early start. It has failed to achieve what is the standard baseline for mass

It is clear that Tesla is failing to deliver any competitive advantage besides its early start. It has failed to achieve what is the standard baseline for mass production of cars today, a sustained production rate within controlled quality parameters, and failed to differentiate in other areas, falling behind most other automakers (and non-automakers) in innovation (especially autonomous driving). There is still hope that it will solve the Model 3 problems, but at this point (including the desperate "volunteers to prove the haters wrong" email) it seems more and more unlikely.

tytytytytytytyt 9y ago
> and failed to differentiate in other areas, falling behind most other automakers (and non-automakers) in innovation (especially autonomous driving). What other car has better autonomous driving?
- ucaetano 9y ago
  Compared to the current, non-MobilEye Teslas, the Leaf, the A6, the CT6. Even the old Model S has better autonomous driving than the current one. Oh, and Google. By very, very far. Tesla hasn't even caught up to its original Mobileye-powered Autopilot.
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    Do any other autopilot systems from legacy automakers improve with over the air software updates? Do they revise their algorithms with fleet data? I can't get Waymo/Google autopilot in a vehicle I can buy. I can get Tesla's autopilot. The latest Tesla autopilot software update (2018.10.4) has shown drastic improvements (30+ Youtube videos from owners in thread): https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/84xt43/collection_of_ap2_2018104_videos/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/84xt43/collect...
    - ucaetano 9y ago
      Being a "leap forward" still puts it behind others. But if your criteria for quality is being able to hope that one day you'll get an update, well, that still puts you behind Cadillac and possibly others. You can continue to hope and wait for Tesla to deliver. So far, it hasn't.
    - jackvalentine 9y ago
      > Do any other autopilot systems from legacy automakers improve with over the air software updates? Who cares? I'm not buying a luxury vehicle on promises of what it might do given enough time.
      - toomuchtodo 9y ago
        To each their own of course. I'd have no qualms about buying my Model S again. I'm unwilling to buy a car stuck in time in it's model year, or that must wait years for a software upgrade. Then again, I'm happy with my iPhone, bugs and all; it'll get updates too, and works just fine between iOS updates.
        jackvalentine 9y ago
        > I'm unwilling to buy a car stuck in time in it's model year You know I used to think this way, then all my computing devices started changing often for the worse with every update. For me a stable device that doesn't change month-to-month is a feature, not a disadvantage. Give me the LTS branch of the car world.
        toomuchtodo 9y ago
        I can appreciate that perspective. I want to live at the bleeding edge, and don't mind the inconveniences or regressions. I can't take my money with me when I die, so after savings and basic needs are met, I want to live in the future (even if the products are still in beta!). I can't get that sort of experience from stodgy, risk adverse legacy enterprises. I want to support enterprises that want to succeed or die. EDIT: Edit after your edit, keep the LTS builds, give me nightly! Tests pass? Ship it!
- DanCarvajal 9y ago
  Given the accidents, you might as well drive a regular car and take your hands off the wheels and you'd roughly replicate the quality of their "autonomous diving".
- otalp 9y ago
  Ironically Autopilot 2 is better than Autopilot 3, so older Teslas would be one car.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- linsomniac 9y ago
  As someone who spent $8K on Enhanced Autopilot 15 months ago, I'd say that pretty much everyone has better autonamous driving. My brother-in-law got a new Honda Accord a few months ago, and says on the highway he can just take his hands off the wheel and let it do it's thing. My fancy-schmancy Tesla Models S meanwhile can do an ok job of following lanes as long as you keep your hands on the wheel and pay attention to ensure that whenever it doesn't detect your hands on the wheel that you give it a little tug. I love my Model S, but they really bit off more than they can chew in the "writing our own software" department.
  - dkoston 9y ago
    Do you have 2018.10.4 or above? It drove me through 220 miles of rain including torrential downpours yesterday with ease. Up until that update, I’d agree that AP2 was sub par but the new update has dramatically improved EAP.
    - smt88 9y ago
      > It drove me through 220 miles of rain including torrential downpours yesterday This sounds terrifying. Why did you trust it enough to experiment with your life?
      - jacquesm 9y ago
        And the lives of everybody else on that road.
    - linsomniac 9y ago
      I just got 2018.10.4 a week or less ago. I haven't put many miles on it yet, but it does seem like a big improvement in the small testing I've done, as far as the driving.
  - bdcravens 9y ago
    > My brother-in-law got a new Honda Accord a few months ago, and says on the highway he can just take his hands off the wheel and let it do it's thing. I have the new Accord. It's not really autonomous. Adaptive cruise control and auto-braking aren't bad, but the lane keep mostly just jiggles the steering wheel to notify me when I depart the lines, and all the time it mistakes construction and seams in the pavement as lane lines.
- matte_black 9y ago
  I tried the Audi A6's self driving feature and it was fantastic.
bsder 9y ago
> It has failed to achieve what is the standard baseline for mass production of cars today, a sustained production rate within controlled quality parameters Which is ironic given that Tesla is in the old Fremont facility where Toyota schooled GM on how to do exactly that ...
- ucaetano 9y ago
  Exactly, with industry-standard infrastructure and plenty of highly-qualified and experienced professionals up for grabs, it is puzzling how they are failing so hard. My guess is a mentality of "everything is wrong, let's rebuild it from scratch internally and it will be better", ignoring decades of practice and experience.
- ebikelaw 9y ago
  It turns out that buildings don't know how to build cars. People do.
- MBCook 9y ago
  Which is kind of amazing because their issues of just trying to get cars down the line and trying to fix them after they are built before delivery sounds exactly like the kind of stuff GM used to do that Toyota amazed them by avoiding.
erikpukinskis 9y ago
I don’t see evidence of the failure. As far as I’ve seen, Tesla has met and then exceeded every single production target they’ve set, including Model 3 production start (which was on time even, last summer). Some were delayed by _years_ but they hit them. The most recent goal they have set is 5000/week. It was originally slated for Q4 2017. So that date has slipped now by at least 3 months. I doubt they’ll hit it in Q2. Maybe they won’t hit it until 2019. But all available evidence suggests the will hit it. Every previous goal was met, why would this be the first one that isn’t?
- maxerickson 9y ago
  Don't the goals and targets include doing it by a stated date?
- ucaetano 9y ago
  Have you been living under a rock? https://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-tsla-fails-to-meet-production-target-of-model-3-cm854445 https://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-tsla-fails-to-meet-prod... > It was originally slated for Q4 2017. So that date has slipped now by 3 months. Wait, that doesn't qualify as failing to meet a target?
  - dang 9y ago
    We ban accounts that post uncivilly. We've warned you repeatedly in the past. If you keep doing it we're going to have to ban you. Would you please fix this? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- king_magic 9y ago
  > As far as I’ve seen, Tesla has met and then exceeded every single production target they’ve set. > The next goal they set was 5000/week. It was originally slated for Q4 2017. So that date has slipped now by 3 months. Those feel like unambiguously contradictory statements. > Every previous goal was met, why would this be the first one they can’t hit? Because... they quite literally did not hit the goal?
mikeash 9y ago
If they’re failing to deliver any competitive advantages, why are there still no competitive cars available from any other company, or even just announced? So far the closest thing is the Bolt, and it’s not all that close.
- ams6110 9y ago
  1) EVs are really not what many people want in a car 2) Other companies like to sell cars at a profit. That hasn't yet been achieved with EVs.
  - esarbe 9y ago
    Tesla is actually turning a profit on their cars. It's just the massive investments in manufacturing production eat up everything.
- 013a 9y ago
  Momentum. Tesla got an early start. A decade means nothing. Ford was founded 115 years ago. Here's the problem. Tesla's cars have two key things that make them competitively interesting: Autopilot and their electric drivetrain. Take those away and their cars are a special kind of "offensively uninteresting". The interiors are horrible, deserving of a car half the price. The build quality is inconsistent. The tech is pretty cool. Parts are unavailable. So, start with autonomous. Which is easier: for another company to achieve autonomous on-par with Tesla, or for Tesla to fix the design and engineering problems they've been having? 3 years ago, people might have said the latter. But today, we can name 3 companies who arguably have on-par or better driverless tech than Tesla (Google, GM, Uber). There are cars you can literally go buy today that get 90% to what the Model S does (2018 Audi A8, 2018 Accord, 2018 Cadillac CT-6). In some cases, they do better. Where's the competitive advantage? Electric drivetrain. Tesla is still leading here. For how long? BMW will have an electric mini out in 2019, an electric X3 out in 2020, and 25 all-electric models by 2025. Audi will have an all electric Q6 by 2019, you can put a pre-order in today, 310 mile range. Toyota is planning 10 EVs by early 2020s. Ford is releasing an EV performance car in 2020 (huge missed opportunity to resurrect the Thunderbird brand, as they went with "Mach-1"). Volvo just spun off Polestar into a performance EV brand. The list goes on. Tesla's massive investment in energy development will be the single thing that might save them; if they fail at making cars in 6 years, at least they can sell batteries to the companies who, well, know how to make cars. But, oh guess what, VW is sourcing their batteries from LG Chem and Samsung. Toyota is making them in-house, and they've said publicly they've achieved a "research breakthrough" on solid state batteries they aren't sharing [1]. I want Tesla to succeed. But, frankly, they have about a year to get it together. That means fix their QA issues, up the interior quality, get autopilot working, drop prices across the line. Possible? Honestly, it doesn't seem likely. But I'm holding out hope. [1] http://www.autonews.com/article/20171026/COPY01/310269958/toyota-keeps-game-changing-ev-battery-tech-inhouse http://www.autonews.com/article/20171026/COPY01/310269958/to...

tytytytytytytyt 9y ago

> and failed to differentiate in other areas, falling behind most other automakers (and non-automakers) in innovation (especially autonomous driving). What other car has better autonomous driving?

ucaetano 9y ago
Compared to the current, non-MobilEye Teslas, the Leaf, the A6, the CT6. Even the old Model S has better autonomous driving than the current one. Oh, and Google. By very, very far. Tesla hasn't even caught up to its original Mobileye-powered Autopilot.
- toomuchtodo 9y ago
  Do any other autopilot systems from legacy automakers improve with over the air software updates? Do they revise their algorithms with fleet data? I can't get Waymo/Google autopilot in a vehicle I can buy. I can get Tesla's autopilot. The latest Tesla autopilot software update (2018.10.4) has shown drastic improvements (30+ Youtube videos from owners in thread): https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/84xt43/collection_of_ap2_2018104_videos/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/84xt43/collect...
  - ucaetano 9y ago
    Being a "leap forward" still puts it behind others. But if your criteria for quality is being able to hope that one day you'll get an update, well, that still puts you behind Cadillac and possibly others. You can continue to hope and wait for Tesla to deliver. So far, it hasn't.
  - jackvalentine 9y ago
    > Do any other autopilot systems from legacy automakers improve with over the air software updates? Who cares? I'm not buying a luxury vehicle on promises of what it might do given enough time.
    - toomuchtodo 9y ago
      To each their own of course. I'd have no qualms about buying my Model S again. I'm unwilling to buy a car stuck in time in it's model year, or that must wait years for a software upgrade. Then again, I'm happy with my iPhone, bugs and all; it'll get updates too, and works just fine between iOS updates.
      - jackvalentine 9y ago
        > I'm unwilling to buy a car stuck in time in it's model year You know I used to think this way, then all my computing devices started changing often for the worse with every update. For me a stable device that doesn't change month-to-month is a feature, not a disadvantage. Give me the LTS branch of the car world.
        toomuchtodo 9y ago
        I can appreciate that perspective. I want to live at the bleeding edge, and don't mind the inconveniences or regressions. I can't take my money with me when I die, so after savings and basic needs are met, I want to live in the future (even if the products are still in beta!). I can't get that sort of experience from stodgy, risk adverse legacy enterprises. I want to support enterprises that want to succeed or die. EDIT: Edit after your edit, keep the LTS builds, give me nightly! Tests pass? Ship it!
DanCarvajal 9y ago
Given the accidents, you might as well drive a regular car and take your hands off the wheels and you'd roughly replicate the quality of their "autonomous diving".
otalp 9y ago
Ironically Autopilot 2 is better than Autopilot 3, so older Teslas would be one car.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
linsomniac 9y ago
As someone who spent $8K on Enhanced Autopilot 15 months ago, I'd say that pretty much everyone has better autonamous driving. My brother-in-law got a new Honda Accord a few months ago, and says on the highway he can just take his hands off the wheel and let it do it's thing. My fancy-schmancy Tesla Models S meanwhile can do an ok job of following lanes as long as you keep your hands on the wheel and pay attention to ensure that whenever it doesn't detect your hands on the wheel that you give it a little tug. I love my Model S, but they really bit off more than they can chew in the "writing our own software" department.
- dkoston 9y ago
  Do you have 2018.10.4 or above? It drove me through 220 miles of rain including torrential downpours yesterday with ease. Up until that update, I’d agree that AP2 was sub par but the new update has dramatically improved EAP.
  - smt88 9y ago
    > It drove me through 220 miles of rain including torrential downpours yesterday This sounds terrifying. Why did you trust it enough to experiment with your life?
    - jacquesm 9y ago
      And the lives of everybody else on that road.
  - linsomniac 9y ago
    I just got 2018.10.4 a week or less ago. I haven't put many miles on it yet, but it does seem like a big improvement in the small testing I've done, as far as the driving.
- bdcravens 9y ago
  > My brother-in-law got a new Honda Accord a few months ago, and says on the highway he can just take his hands off the wheel and let it do it's thing. I have the new Accord. It's not really autonomous. Adaptive cruise control and auto-braking aren't bad, but the lane keep mostly just jiggles the steering wheel to notify me when I depart the lines, and all the time it mistakes construction and seams in the pavement as lane lines.
matte_black 9y ago
I tried the Audi A6's self driving feature and it was fantastic.

bsder 9y ago

> It has failed to achieve what is the standard baseline for mass production of cars today, a sustained production rate within controlled quality parameters Which is ironic given that Tesla is in the old Fremont facility where Toyota schooled GM on how to do exactly that ...

ucaetano 9y ago
Exactly, with industry-standard infrastructure and plenty of highly-qualified and experienced professionals up for grabs, it is puzzling how they are failing so hard. My guess is a mentality of "everything is wrong, let's rebuild it from scratch internally and it will be better", ignoring decades of practice and experience.
ebikelaw 9y ago
It turns out that buildings don't know how to build cars. People do.
MBCook 9y ago
Which is kind of amazing because their issues of just trying to get cars down the line and trying to fix them after they are built before delivery sounds exactly like the kind of stuff GM used to do that Toyota amazed them by avoiding.

erikpukinskis 9y ago

I don’t see evidence of the failure. As far as I’ve seen, Tesla has met and then exceeded every single production target they’ve set, including Model 3 production start (which was on time even, last summer). Some were delayed by _years_ but they hit them. The most recent goal they have set is 5000/week. It was originally slated for Q4 2017. So that date has slipped now by at least 3 months. I doubt they’ll hit it in Q2. Maybe they won’t hit it until 2019. But all available evidence suggests the will hit it. Every previous goal was met, why would this be the first one that isn’t?

maxerickson 9y ago
Don't the goals and targets include doing it by a stated date?
ucaetano 9y ago
Have you been living under a rock? https://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-tsla-fails-to-meet-production-target-of-model-3-cm854445 https://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-tsla-fails-to-meet-prod... > It was originally slated for Q4 2017. So that date has slipped now by 3 months. Wait, that doesn't qualify as failing to meet a target?
- dang 9y ago
  We ban accounts that post uncivilly. We've warned you repeatedly in the past. If you keep doing it we're going to have to ban you. Would you please fix this? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
king_magic 9y ago
> As far as I’ve seen, Tesla has met and then exceeded every single production target they’ve set. > The next goal they set was 5000/week. It was originally slated for Q4 2017. So that date has slipped now by 3 months. Those feel like unambiguously contradictory statements. > Every previous goal was met, why would this be the first one they can’t hit? Because... they quite literally did not hit the goal?

mikeash 9y ago

If they’re failing to deliver any competitive advantages, why are there still no competitive cars available from any other company, or even just announced? So far the closest thing is the Bolt, and it’s not all that close.

ams6110 9y ago
1) EVs are really not what many people want in a car 2) Other companies like to sell cars at a profit. That hasn't yet been achieved with EVs.
- esarbe 9y ago
  Tesla is actually turning a profit on their cars. It's just the massive investments in manufacturing production eat up everything.
013a 9y ago
Momentum. Tesla got an early start. A decade means nothing. Ford was founded 115 years ago. Here's the problem. Tesla's cars have two key things that make them competitively interesting: Autopilot and their electric drivetrain. Take those away and their cars are a special kind of "offensively uninteresting". The interiors are horrible, deserving of a car half the price. The build quality is inconsistent. The tech is pretty cool. Parts are unavailable. So, start with autonomous. Which is easier: for another company to achieve autonomous on-par with Tesla, or for Tesla to fix the design and engineering problems they've been having? 3 years ago, people might have said the latter. But today, we can name 3 companies who arguably have on-par or better driverless tech than Tesla (Google, GM, Uber). There are cars you can literally go buy today that get 90% to what the Model S does (2018 Audi A8, 2018 Accord, 2018 Cadillac CT-6). In some cases, they do better. Where's the competitive advantage? Electric drivetrain. Tesla is still leading here. For how long? BMW will have an electric mini out in 2019, an electric X3 out in 2020, and 25 all-electric models by 2025. Audi will have an all electric Q6 by 2019, you can put a pre-order in today, 310 mile range. Toyota is planning 10 EVs by early 2020s. Ford is releasing an EV performance car in 2020 (huge missed opportunity to resurrect the Thunderbird brand, as they went with "Mach-1"). Volvo just spun off Polestar into a performance EV brand. The list goes on. Tesla's massive investment in energy development will be the single thing that might save them; if they fail at making cars in 6 years, at least they can sell batteries to the companies who, well, know how to make cars. But, oh guess what, VW is sourcing their batteries from LG Chem and Samsung. Toyota is making them in-house, and they've said publicly they've achieved a "research breakthrough" on solid state batteries they aren't sharing [1]. I want Tesla to succeed. But, frankly, they have about a year to get it together. That means fix their QA issues, up the interior quality, get autopilot working, drop prices across the line. Possible? Honestly, it doesn't seem likely. But I'm holding out hope. [1] http://www.autonews.com/article/20171026/COPY01/310269958/toyota-keeps-game-changing-ev-battery-tech-inhouse http://www.autonews.com/article/20171026/COPY01/310269958/to...