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Somehow I foresee the billionaire class of technical experts will step in and prevent the downfall of Tesla. Too many people believe in the vision of Elon to l

Somehow I foresee the billionaire class of technical experts will step in and prevent the downfall of Tesla. Too many people believe in the vision of Elon to let this fall apart because of short term production issues. If anything, this could be a good thing for Tesla as it might attract other owner/operator expertise to the firm.

stillsut 9y ago
How can an electric car company be in a bear market the week after a fusion device was patented? If Lockheed really believes in their device, they ought to buy Tesla.
- femidav 9y ago
  It's about battery, not about electricity. You will need 20-40% of additional electricity production to convert all ICE cars to electric, it can be done today. But the battery can't compete with ICE on equal terms.
ironjunkie 9y ago
This. Tesla became too big to fail and Musk became too hype to fail.
- bitumen 9y ago
  On this site maybe, not in reality. Most people want a return on investment, not a shine job about living on Mars next week.
Alex3917 9y ago
If Tesla collapses then it would negatively affect the price of a lot of other SV stocks. I bet SoftBank or the Saudis would just throw them a billion dollars before they let that happen.
- jonknee 9y ago
  Why would the production issue based collapse of a highly levered manufacturer negatively affect the price of software/service companies?
  - Alex3917 9y ago
    Because people are dumb. Just look at how alt coin prices often all move together for no apparent reason.
fancyfacebook 9y ago
The possibility of financial collapse is very real, they start losing the ability to keep the lights on at that fancy plant in Nevada this year. They need to raise some serious money in a new equity offering, guess we'll see if the market will tolerate that or not.
- dragontamer 9y ago
  > They need to raise some serious money in a new equity offering, guess we'll see if the market will tolerate that or not. At $260 / share, I don't think so. Tesla's stock is also in freefall.
- adventured 9y ago
  If pressed they can probably knock on Google's door, given the relationship there. Sell Google 10% of the company for $4 or $5 billion depending. Throw some kind of deal with Waymo into the mix. Google currently has $100 billion burning a hole in its pocket, adding several billion per quarter.
- dragontamer 9y ago
  > The possibility of financial collapse is very real, they start losing the ability to keep the lights on at that fancy plant in Nevada this year. I disagree. They have a $230 million bond payment due this year but that seems survivable to me. The $920 million payment due March2019 is the difficult one. Even if the company were to collapse, I wouldn't expect it to collapse until 2019 at the earliest.
  - daxorid 9y ago
    > I wouldn't expect it to collapse until 2019 at the earliest. Part of the function of financial cash markets (options are another matter) is to discount future profits into present prices. An expectation of a 2019 collapse is nearly as good, in terms of present asset price discovery information, as an expectation of a 2018 collapse. These solvency expectations feed forward to the present, driving prices lower, which makes raising money to avert the expected collapse anywhere from expensive to impossible. It's a . . . "fun" cycle to be caught in.
paulpauper 9y ago
Except that Tesla is not failing. There is so much demand for their cars that they cannot make enough of them. A Tesla car fatality is breaking news but a Ford Focus crash is ignored. Any shred of bad news pertaining to Tesla is amplified by the media.
- jacquesm 9y ago
  We're losing on every deal but we'll make it up in volume.
  - AstralStorm 9y ago
    Except they cannot make the volume.
    - jacquesm 9y ago
      There's that. But the line theoretically does have the appropriate capacity. It's a race against time, if they can't get the volume up significantly in the next 90 days they are in very hot water. Maybe Warren Buffet or another investor with the long view would be a solution?
- dragontamer 9y ago
  > There is so much demand for their cars that they cannot make enough of them. Tesla cannot make enough of them because Tesla cannot make enough of them. Everyone knows Tesla can sell those cars instantly if their production lines are up to snuff. But the production targets are laughably behind. 5000 cars/week by Dec2017 ?? Yeah right. Its March2018 and they haven't even hit 5000/week yet.
  - anilshanbhag 9y ago
    The bloomberg tracker predicts a rate of around 2000 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ I wouldn't say they are laughably behind. Projects do get delayed. My own projects got delayed by multiple months. The California high speed rail is 3 years delayed ! Its better to do it right than to just hurry things.
frgtpsswrdlame 9y ago
>Too many people believe in the vision of Elon to let this fall apart because of short term production issues. Most people don't know throw billions of dollars around on infirm beliefs, they do it on an expectation of return. If Tesla is getting to the point where the finances no longer support the dream you shouldn't expect billionaires to behave much differently from the markets. >If anything, this could be a good thing for Tesla as it might attract other owner/operator expertise to the firm. Oh please, surely techies have seen this 'this is good for bitcoin' enough that they're not going to fall for the same dumb scam with Tesla.
CatDevURandom 9y ago
I mean, they already are? https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/social-capitals-chamath-palihapitiya-tesla-convertible-bonds-best-way-to-bet-on-elon-musk.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/social-capitals-chamat...
Analemma_ 9y ago
> Somehow I foresee the billionaire class of technical experts will step in and prevent the downfall of Tesla. Billionaires don't get to be billionaires by throwing money at things with no reasonable expectation of return (well, except Trump, but that's a different story). If Tesla can't figure out how to make money, they're not going to come running. If they were, they'd already be snapping up Telsa's underpriced bonds and stock. > If anything, this could be a good thing for Tesla "This is actually good for Bitc^H^H^H^HTesla"
twblalock 9y ago
> If anything, this could be a good thing for Tesla as it might attract other owner/operator expertise to the firm. Would another owner/operator really be successful? Musk is probably the only person who could have received so much investment and goodwill over so many years without becoming profitable. And Tesla is going to need to continue to raise money for a while. If a boring guy from an established car company had been in charge, investors would have run out of patience years ago.
- AstralStorm 9y ago
  Not even close. Certain software start-ups and Uber put Tesla to shame.
jVinc 9y ago
I fully agree that too many people believe in the "vision of Elon" but the thing is that I can get reliable fully electrical vehicles from Nissan, volkswagen or Hundai. And while it used to be that the only "cool" electrical cars you saw on the road were early adopter Teslas, that's just not the case anymore. Tesla isn't failing because of lack of belief in the vision (Which in absolutely no way belongs to Elon btw). Tesla is failing because they took a huge bet on being able to set up a car manufacturer faster than the established market could adopt the technology. Tesla still has a great brand to it, but it seems unlikely that they will be able to compete on price, so they might end up only having a high-end electric niche which cant justify their current inflated valuation.

stillsut 9y ago

How can an electric car company be in a bear market the week after a fusion device was patented? If Lockheed really believes in their device, they ought to buy Tesla.

femidav 9y ago
It's about battery, not about electricity. You will need 20-40% of additional electricity production to convert all ICE cars to electric, it can be done today. But the battery can't compete with ICE on equal terms.

ironjunkie 9y ago

This. Tesla became too big to fail and Musk became too hype to fail.

bitumen 9y ago
On this site maybe, not in reality. Most people want a return on investment, not a shine job about living on Mars next week.

Alex3917 9y ago

If Tesla collapses then it would negatively affect the price of a lot of other SV stocks. I bet SoftBank or the Saudis would just throw them a billion dollars before they let that happen.

jonknee 9y ago
Why would the production issue based collapse of a highly levered manufacturer negatively affect the price of software/service companies?
- Alex3917 9y ago
  Because people are dumb. Just look at how alt coin prices often all move together for no apparent reason.

fancyfacebook 9y ago

The possibility of financial collapse is very real, they start losing the ability to keep the lights on at that fancy plant in Nevada this year. They need to raise some serious money in a new equity offering, guess we'll see if the market will tolerate that or not.

dragontamer 9y ago
> They need to raise some serious money in a new equity offering, guess we'll see if the market will tolerate that or not. At $260 / share, I don't think so. Tesla's stock is also in freefall.
adventured 9y ago
If pressed they can probably knock on Google's door, given the relationship there. Sell Google 10% of the company for $4 or $5 billion depending. Throw some kind of deal with Waymo into the mix. Google currently has $100 billion burning a hole in its pocket, adding several billion per quarter.
dragontamer 9y ago
> The possibility of financial collapse is very real, they start losing the ability to keep the lights on at that fancy plant in Nevada this year. I disagree. They have a $230 million bond payment due this year but that seems survivable to me. The $920 million payment due March2019 is the difficult one. Even if the company were to collapse, I wouldn't expect it to collapse until 2019 at the earliest.
- daxorid 9y ago
  > I wouldn't expect it to collapse until 2019 at the earliest. Part of the function of financial cash markets (options are another matter) is to discount future profits into present prices. An expectation of a 2019 collapse is nearly as good, in terms of present asset price discovery information, as an expectation of a 2018 collapse. These solvency expectations feed forward to the present, driving prices lower, which makes raising money to avert the expected collapse anywhere from expensive to impossible. It's a . . . "fun" cycle to be caught in.

paulpauper 9y ago

Except that Tesla is not failing. There is so much demand for their cars that they cannot make enough of them. A Tesla car fatality is breaking news but a Ford Focus crash is ignored. Any shred of bad news pertaining to Tesla is amplified by the media.

jacquesm 9y ago
We're losing on every deal but we'll make it up in volume.
- AstralStorm 9y ago
  Except they cannot make the volume.
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    There's that. But the line theoretically does have the appropriate capacity. It's a race against time, if they can't get the volume up significantly in the next 90 days they are in very hot water. Maybe Warren Buffet or another investor with the long view would be a solution?
dragontamer 9y ago
> There is so much demand for their cars that they cannot make enough of them. Tesla cannot make enough of them because Tesla cannot make enough of them. Everyone knows Tesla can sell those cars instantly if their production lines are up to snuff. But the production targets are laughably behind. 5000 cars/week by Dec2017 ?? Yeah right. Its March2018 and they haven't even hit 5000/week yet.
- anilshanbhag 9y ago
  The bloomberg tracker predicts a rate of around 2000 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ I wouldn't say they are laughably behind. Projects do get delayed. My own projects got delayed by multiple months. The California high speed rail is 3 years delayed ! Its better to do it right than to just hurry things.

frgtpsswrdlame 9y ago

>Too many people believe in the vision of Elon to let this fall apart because of short term production issues. Most people don't know throw billions of dollars around on infirm beliefs, they do it on an expectation of return. If Tesla is getting to the point where the finances no longer support the dream you shouldn't expect billionaires to behave much differently from the markets. >If anything, this could be a good thing for Tesla as it might attract other owner/operator expertise to the firm. Oh please, surely techies have seen this 'this is good for bitcoin' enough that they're not going to fall for the same dumb scam with Tesla.

CatDevURandom 9y ago

I mean, they already are? https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/social-capitals-chamath-palihapitiya-tesla-convertible-bonds-best-way-to-bet-on-elon-musk.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/social-capitals-chamat...

Analemma_ 9y ago

> Somehow I foresee the billionaire class of technical experts will step in and prevent the downfall of Tesla. Billionaires don't get to be billionaires by throwing money at things with no reasonable expectation of return (well, except Trump, but that's a different story). If Tesla can't figure out how to make money, they're not going to come running. If they were, they'd already be snapping up Telsa's underpriced bonds and stock. > If anything, this could be a good thing for Tesla "This is actually good for Bitc^H^H^H^HTesla"

twblalock 9y ago

> If anything, this could be a good thing for Tesla as it might attract other owner/operator expertise to the firm. Would another owner/operator really be successful? Musk is probably the only person who could have received so much investment and goodwill over so many years without becoming profitable. And Tesla is going to need to continue to raise money for a while. If a boring guy from an established car company had been in charge, investors would have run out of patience years ago.

AstralStorm 9y ago
Not even close. Certain software start-ups and Uber put Tesla to shame.

jVinc 9y ago

I fully agree that too many people believe in the "vision of Elon" but the thing is that I can get reliable fully electrical vehicles from Nissan, volkswagen or Hundai. And while it used to be that the only "cool" electrical cars you saw on the road were early adopter Teslas, that's just not the case anymore. Tesla isn't failing because of lack of belief in the vision (Which in absolutely no way belongs to Elon btw). Tesla is failing because they took a huge bet on being able to set up a car manufacturer faster than the established market could adopt the technology. Tesla still has a great brand to it, but it seems unlikely that they will be able to compete on price, so they might end up only having a high-end electric niche which cant justify their current inflated valuation.