6 ms·

I have rewritten, in my head, the comment I am about to make 2 or 3 times, and it kept getting more obfuscated by me trying to portray it in a way that gets me

I have rewritten, in my head, the comment I am about to make 2 or 3 times, and it kept getting more obfuscated by me trying to portray it in a way that gets me an answer and not get my karma obliterated. So I will just go with the blurt method: Was Trump right about China? Additionally, was it a mistake to be so helpful to the Chinese 1970s- now?

burkaman 9y ago
Can you be more specific? Trump makes very few consistent concrete statements about anything. Are you asking if his general attitude of "China is our competitor and we should be careful" is correct, or if his strategy of abandoning international trade, organizations, and agreements is the right response?
- classicsnoot 9y ago
  Both, but the former is what I originally intended. He is so helter skelter in his delivery, but I think he may go down in history as one of the most consistent presidents in terms of campaign promises and in-office actions. I am in no way implying that this is necessarily good or bad.
  - burkaman 9y ago
    Ok, the former is a pretty obvious observation that I doubt anyone disagreed with. One of Trump's media strategies is to constantly hammer home some obvious point without offering any specific solutions, so that other people take the blame if their ideas fail, but he can take credit if something works. So yes, Trump was right about China. I don't think a trade war will help the situation, but if it fails he can just say all his idiot predecessors dug a hole too deep for anyone to get out of. I don't agree that he's being particularly consistent, I think you're just forgetting a lot of his unfulfilled promises because he made so many vague and sometimes contradictory ones. Not sure how up-to-date it is, but try this site for some examples: https://trumptracker.github.io/ https://trumptracker.github.io/ Even a lot of promises from his uncharacteristically specific Contract with the American Voter are unfulfilled: https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102...
  - opportune 9y ago
    It's easy to be consistent with your promises if they're vague. Did Trump ever mention anything in particular that was bad about China's trade with the US, such as currency manipulation and foreign technology transfer? It's hard for me to google things about it now that most of the news is about the current dealings, but I don't remember him really offering a coherent criticism of China other than that the US was getting a bad deal. Please correct me if I'm wrong though
    - burkaman 9y ago
      He did promise to officially label China a currency manipulator in his first 100 days, which he has not done: https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102...
baybal2 9y ago
>was it a mistake to be so helpful to the Chinese 1970s- now? Yes Mr. Kissinger and Mr. Nixon misunderstood crucial things about China. Sino-Soviet split was not such. Rather than an imagined existential struggle, it is better to say it was a family squabble; like newlyweds trying to figure out who is a top dog in a family. Rather than splitting the Eastern Bloc, they just gave Chinese a much bigger advantage in negotiations with Soviets. A proof of that is USSR giving Chinese not something, but a NUKE, a jet engine tech, tanks, AA and ground to air missiles (!), and truckloads of resources looong into the split. Mr. Nixon and Mr. Kissinger were tricked by Chinese. If you doubt so, read excepts from Kissinger's biography about his thoughts at the moment of US-Mao deal. He was completely oblivious of all aforementioned.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  The sino Soviet split was real, and could have easily escalated into a shooting war (and actually was one in Vietnam by proxy) beyond a few border scruffles. China making overtures to the USA was a matter of survival to them as they thought at the time.
  - baybal2 9y ago
    I will parry this argument by saying that to Mao and Deng, just as to Soviets, "expending" few battalions worth of loyal soldiers is nothing more serious than just a play. When Mao sent his troops to Zhenbao, he forbade them from both advancing into Soviet territory, and falling back. He ordered to execute any soldier who disobeyed. That was his idea from the beginning to make it a show tantrum. Relations and trade in between Soviets and Mao continued well after Zhenbao, and there are living witnesses to that on both sides.
  - classicsnoot 9y ago
    FWIW they totally duked it out in the Northern/Mongolian region. But they kept it quiet so we all forget. China also pushed heavily into India during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
- opportune 9y ago
  True but the China of today is different from China of the cold war. You're right in that USSR and China were definitely closer together then than China and the US are now, no doubt about it. But you have to consider that, as far as we can tell, there's no threat of looming war between China and the US, so in the short term we're ok. In the long term, I think the Chinese are becoming more Western/liberal in terms of attitudes. They like capitalism, they like international brands, and as more and more people travel between China and the US for immigration/business/education they'll be more exposed to Western liberalism too. And consider this too: in 20-30 years, the business and political leadership of China will probably only barely remember the Communist days. Perhaps we were "tricked" in the sense that we were overly trusting or congenial, but if you look at US-Chinese relations over a longer timespan, I think it looks like our attitudes will pay off. I see things improving between our two countries, despite China's current attempts at backyard imperialism.

burkaman 9y ago

Can you be more specific? Trump makes very few consistent concrete statements about anything. Are you asking if his general attitude of "China is our competitor and we should be careful" is correct, or if his strategy of abandoning international trade, organizations, and agreements is the right response?

classicsnoot 9y ago
Both, but the former is what I originally intended. He is so helter skelter in his delivery, but I think he may go down in history as one of the most consistent presidents in terms of campaign promises and in-office actions. I am in no way implying that this is necessarily good or bad.
- burkaman 9y ago
  Ok, the former is a pretty obvious observation that I doubt anyone disagreed with. One of Trump's media strategies is to constantly hammer home some obvious point without offering any specific solutions, so that other people take the blame if their ideas fail, but he can take credit if something works. So yes, Trump was right about China. I don't think a trade war will help the situation, but if it fails he can just say all his idiot predecessors dug a hole too deep for anyone to get out of. I don't agree that he's being particularly consistent, I think you're just forgetting a lot of his unfulfilled promises because he made so many vague and sometimes contradictory ones. Not sure how up-to-date it is, but try this site for some examples: https://trumptracker.github.io/ https://trumptracker.github.io/ Even a lot of promises from his uncharacteristically specific Contract with the American Voter are unfulfilled: https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102...
- opportune 9y ago
  It's easy to be consistent with your promises if they're vague. Did Trump ever mention anything in particular that was bad about China's trade with the US, such as currency manipulation and foreign technology transfer? It's hard for me to google things about it now that most of the news is about the current dealings, but I don't remember him really offering a coherent criticism of China other than that the US was getting a bad deal. Please correct me if I'm wrong though
  - burkaman 9y ago
    He did promise to officially label China a currency manipulator in his first 100 days, which he has not done: https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102316-Contractv02.pdf https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102...

baybal2 9y ago

>was it a mistake to be so helpful to the Chinese 1970s- now? Yes Mr. Kissinger and Mr. Nixon misunderstood crucial things about China. Sino-Soviet split was not such. Rather than an imagined existential struggle, it is better to say it was a family squabble; like newlyweds trying to figure out who is a top dog in a family. Rather than splitting the Eastern Bloc, they just gave Chinese a much bigger advantage in negotiations with Soviets. A proof of that is USSR giving Chinese not something, but a NUKE, a jet engine tech, tanks, AA and ground to air missiles (!), and truckloads of resources looong into the split. Mr. Nixon and Mr. Kissinger were tricked by Chinese. If you doubt so, read excepts from Kissinger's biography about his thoughts at the moment of US-Mao deal. He was completely oblivious of all aforementioned.

seanmcdirmid 9y ago
The sino Soviet split was real, and could have easily escalated into a shooting war (and actually was one in Vietnam by proxy) beyond a few border scruffles. China making overtures to the USA was a matter of survival to them as they thought at the time.
- baybal2 9y ago
  I will parry this argument by saying that to Mao and Deng, just as to Soviets, "expending" few battalions worth of loyal soldiers is nothing more serious than just a play. When Mao sent his troops to Zhenbao, he forbade them from both advancing into Soviet territory, and falling back. He ordered to execute any soldier who disobeyed. That was his idea from the beginning to make it a show tantrum. Relations and trade in between Soviets and Mao continued well after Zhenbao, and there are living witnesses to that on both sides.
- classicsnoot 9y ago
  FWIW they totally duked it out in the Northern/Mongolian region. But they kept it quiet so we all forget. China also pushed heavily into India during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
opportune 9y ago
True but the China of today is different from China of the cold war. You're right in that USSR and China were definitely closer together then than China and the US are now, no doubt about it. But you have to consider that, as far as we can tell, there's no threat of looming war between China and the US, so in the short term we're ok. In the long term, I think the Chinese are becoming more Western/liberal in terms of attitudes. They like capitalism, they like international brands, and as more and more people travel between China and the US for immigration/business/education they'll be more exposed to Western liberalism too. And consider this too: in 20-30 years, the business and political leadership of China will probably only barely remember the Communist days. Perhaps we were "tricked" in the sense that we were overly trusting or congenial, but if you look at US-Chinese relations over a longer timespan, I think it looks like our attitudes will pay off. I see things improving between our two countries, despite China's current attempts at backyard imperialism.