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>Price is the kicker here though. When I own a car, I can pretty much drive as frequently or infrequently as I want. if you've ever actually sat down and price

>Price is the kicker here though. When I own a car, I can pretty much drive as frequently or infrequently as I want. if you've ever actually sat down and priced out how much each usage of your car costs you, it's not that good of a deal. Personal vehicles seem cheap because people treat them as a non-optional fixed cost, but between the cost of the vehicle itself, insurance, fuel, maintenance, and your time spent driving you can price a car service fairly high and still have it compare favourably to owning a car. The trick will just be to convince people to start thinking about a car service the same way they currently think about their car payments or fuel costs. I'd be curious to see what a per-month subscription service would look like instead of a per-ride fee structure like taxis or ubers currently use. $300-400/mo for unlimited rides would be, for me, a better deal than owning a car. I'm curious if that could be profitable.

bluGill 9y ago
I did, since I keep my cars for a long time (13 years and counting), and I drive a lot, cost of fuel is the largest share of my costs. The IRS allows ~$.55/mile (this changes regularly and I can't be bothered to look up the latest number), and I'm at 1/5th. For my truck the numbers are different, but every time I check it turns out you can't actually use a truck for a lot of the things I use my truck for, so even though my per miles costs are something like $5/mile I don't really have a choice for those uses.
- notatoad 9y ago
  >and I drive a lot, this is probably the differentiator. I bike to work about 20% of the time in the winter, 80% of the time in the summer, and don't use my car for too much else. So the cost of the car and insurance amortized out over mile driven ends up being pretty high for me.
  - oblio 9y ago
    You also probably have an active partner, probably don’t have kids or some sort of disability, don’t have to go see family out of town, etc., etc. A car gives you a lot more freedom than public transport and is definitely cheaper than taxis (or Uber) for the average person.
notheguyouthink 9y ago
I have priced it out, as I don't like driving, and it was cost me insanely more to taxi/etc. I didn't even get done pricing, tbh heh. It's roughly a $50-$70 ride for me every morning to work. That already puts me over triple my car payment. The other random trips to the store/etc would be far cheaper, thankfully, but depending on usage I can't imagine it being less than my gas costs in a month (roughly $50/m). There's still repairs/insurance/licensing/etc, but I doubt they're costing me the $700 extra that just driving to work would be costing me via taxi. The problem is I don't live in the city, so my distances are greater, and tend to be very anti-taxi. I actually want to take an uber to town on the weekends so I can drink/etc at dinner, but I usually don't because of how expensive it is. Mind you, I don't think it's unfairly priced currently - but that still doesn't make it as cheap as I'd need it to be to use all the time.
- manmal 9y ago
  Wow, how far do you drive to work? Maybe a cheap one-seater electric car would work for you?
  - got2surf 9y ago
    One of the problems with cheap one-seater cars is that they are better suited for short distances than long highway commutes. Being in a tiny car next to a semi truck at highway speeds can get dicey.
- ironjunkie 9y ago
  Agree completely with you. That being said, owning a car is still a must if you have anything close to an outdoor lifestyle. For example: Leaving the car at the trailhead several hundred miles from home for the whole weekend. With Uber and Lyft, I already see my friends living an Urban lifestyle completely dumping their car. When this will become automated, another portion will likely dump their car. But for now at least, I cannot see the outdoor crowd, or the ones living in a real rural area (think opposite of the SF hipster) dumping their car.
  - 9y ago
seanmcdirmid 9y ago
I’ve priced it out. It didn’t make sense for me to buy a car while I was living in Beijing, taxis were too convenient and affordable. As soon as I moved to LA, it was more expensive but I had a walkable commute, having a baby changed all the dynamics however so I bought my first car in 12 years. The car seat problem is real.
- jd20 9y ago
  This is what probably keeps me out of the market for a car rental service too. I realize I'm probably in the minority, but trying to fit three car seats and several adults into an Uber is near impossible. Not to mention of it's a one way trip, what do you do? Carry the seats with you, arrange to get them back on a later date? Personally, I'd much rather buy a car with this technology, than rent it.
  - akgerber 9y ago
    If Waymo's safety record holds, we can hope for a world with sufficiently-few crashes that car seats become unnecessary.
    - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
      Good luck getting states to change their laws anytime soon. Ironically enough, car seats aren’t required on buses not because they aren’t needed, but they would cut off the poor with kids completely from transportation.
      - aplummer 9y ago
        Also probably helps that public buses are really really safe statistically.
      - Fricken 9y ago
        The driver is regulated at the state level. Safety standards for vehicles are regulated federally.
    - 9y ago
pkaye 9y ago
I wonder if Uber pricing will remain as good once they go public and need to show growth and profitability.
- encoderer 9y ago
  Or. Growth or profitability
treis 9y ago
AAA says average cost is $8.5k a year or $700 a month: https://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/cost-to-own-a-vehicle/ https://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/cost-to-own-a-vehicle/ If you have a cheap reliable car, paltry insurance, and don't drive much you might just get down to $300-400 a month, but I think you're also underestimating your cost.
- LoSboccacc 9y ago
  Before people using the car for work or just for commuting to work make the switch to ai cars these need to provide some serious sla guarantees, because the cost in lost opportunity for a no show can be quite high.
- gowld 9y ago
  $700/month ($175/week, $20-$35/day) is a lot less than Uber costs for a daily commuter + weekend activity.
- apotheothesomai 9y ago
  It's only that high, if you're making car payments and/or driving hundreds of miles a week. The page also specifies this only applies to new cars, as of 2017. As long as the car payments aren't high and the commutes not really long, it's pretty reasonable. If your commutes are that long, a service would be outrageous. E.g., a company paid for my Uber trip from SF to Los Altos back in 2012, and it cost $125. I'm a statistical outlier fortunately. My car with excellent insurance costs me < $100/month.
- gibybo 9y ago
  My car is old but reliable. KBB says it's worth about $2,500 with 140k miles on it. It's made by Toyota and the total cost of repairs in the 60k miles I've owned it is has been less than $300 (alternator, battery, a belt, and some fluids), so I think it's reasonable to assume I'll get at least another 60k miles out of it with less than $1k in repairs. If we assume the worst case scenario where the car is worthless after the next 60k miles and I have to spend $1k repairing it, that's a total cost of 5.8 cents a mile. At 10k miles/year, that comes out to $48/month. I don't pay interest on a loan for it, but even if I did it would only be another $8/month at 4% APR. It gets 25 MPG, at 10k miles/year and $2.50/gallon, that's another $83/month. My insurance is $30/month. $48 + $8 + $83 + $30 = $169/month, well below $300-400. FWIW, I actually only drive about 6k miles a year, so my actual cost is only $29 + $8 (opportunity cost) + $50 + $30 = $117/month.
cm2187 9y ago
But why would self driving cars be significantly more expensive than regular cars? Most of the technologies they use are typically technologies which cost reduces dramatically when mass produced. Electric cars will be more expensive, but the price will likely converge in the long run. I am not entirely convinced car ownership will go away. The main argument in my mind is that most of the commute in a city happens at the same time. So if you want a car guaranteed, you kind of need to lock it in somehow.
- mr_toad 9y ago
  I’ve seen reports of $7500 or more just for one Lidar sensor: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/googles-waymo-reduces-lidar-cost-90-in-effort-to-scale-self-driving-cars-2017-1?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com.au/googles-waymo-reduces-lid... Sure, costs will come down, but the people who have the data (e.g Waymo and GM) seem to be banking on the taxi market, rather than selling these cars.
  - TulliusCicero 9y ago
    Using them as taxis makes the initial cost of the sensors less important, not more important, since it's a fixed cost and taxis are driven much more than regular cars (especially true for ones that don't depend on a human driver).
  - cm2187 9y ago
    And they will likely be the first customers, until volumes ramp up and prices go down. There are many places where taxis do not make sense or aren't optimal. Low density areas, daily commute at the peak hour in big cities (or in general any place where you have a one way flow), people using their car professionally, etc.

bluGill 9y ago

I did, since I keep my cars for a long time (13 years and counting), and I drive a lot, cost of fuel is the largest share of my costs. The IRS allows ~$.55/mile (this changes regularly and I can't be bothered to look up the latest number), and I'm at 1/5th. For my truck the numbers are different, but every time I check it turns out you can't actually use a truck for a lot of the things I use my truck for, so even though my per miles costs are something like $5/mile I don't really have a choice for those uses.

notatoad 9y ago
>and I drive a lot, this is probably the differentiator. I bike to work about 20% of the time in the winter, 80% of the time in the summer, and don't use my car for too much else. So the cost of the car and insurance amortized out over mile driven ends up being pretty high for me.
- oblio 9y ago
  You also probably have an active partner, probably don’t have kids or some sort of disability, don’t have to go see family out of town, etc., etc. A car gives you a lot more freedom than public transport and is definitely cheaper than taxis (or Uber) for the average person.

notheguyouthink 9y ago

I have priced it out, as I don't like driving, and it was cost me insanely more to taxi/etc. I didn't even get done pricing, tbh heh. It's roughly a $50-$70 ride for me every morning to work. That already puts me over triple my car payment. The other random trips to the store/etc would be far cheaper, thankfully, but depending on usage I can't imagine it being less than my gas costs in a month (roughly $50/m). There's still repairs/insurance/licensing/etc, but I doubt they're costing me the $700 extra that just driving to work would be costing me via taxi. The problem is I don't live in the city, so my distances are greater, and tend to be very anti-taxi. I actually want to take an uber to town on the weekends so I can drink/etc at dinner, but I usually don't because of how expensive it is. Mind you, I don't think it's unfairly priced currently - but that still doesn't make it as cheap as I'd need it to be to use all the time.

manmal 9y ago
Wow, how far do you drive to work? Maybe a cheap one-seater electric car would work for you?
- got2surf 9y ago
  One of the problems with cheap one-seater cars is that they are better suited for short distances than long highway commutes. Being in a tiny car next to a semi truck at highway speeds can get dicey.
ironjunkie 9y ago
Agree completely with you. That being said, owning a car is still a must if you have anything close to an outdoor lifestyle. For example: Leaving the car at the trailhead several hundred miles from home for the whole weekend. With Uber and Lyft, I already see my friends living an Urban lifestyle completely dumping their car. When this will become automated, another portion will likely dump their car. But for now at least, I cannot see the outdoor crowd, or the ones living in a real rural area (think opposite of the SF hipster) dumping their car.
- 9y ago

seanmcdirmid 9y ago

I’ve priced it out. It didn’t make sense for me to buy a car while I was living in Beijing, taxis were too convenient and affordable. As soon as I moved to LA, it was more expensive but I had a walkable commute, having a baby changed all the dynamics however so I bought my first car in 12 years. The car seat problem is real.

jd20 9y ago
This is what probably keeps me out of the market for a car rental service too. I realize I'm probably in the minority, but trying to fit three car seats and several adults into an Uber is near impossible. Not to mention of it's a one way trip, what do you do? Carry the seats with you, arrange to get them back on a later date? Personally, I'd much rather buy a car with this technology, than rent it.
- akgerber 9y ago
  If Waymo's safety record holds, we can hope for a world with sufficiently-few crashes that car seats become unnecessary.
  - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
    Good luck getting states to change their laws anytime soon. Ironically enough, car seats aren’t required on buses not because they aren’t needed, but they would cut off the poor with kids completely from transportation.
    - aplummer 9y ago
      Also probably helps that public buses are really really safe statistically.
    - Fricken 9y ago
      The driver is regulated at the state level. Safety standards for vehicles are regulated federally.
  - 9y ago

pkaye 9y ago

I wonder if Uber pricing will remain as good once they go public and need to show growth and profitability.

encoderer 9y ago
Or. Growth or profitability

treis 9y ago

AAA says average cost is $8.5k a year or $700 a month: https://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/cost-to-own-a-vehicle/ https://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/cost-to-own-a-vehicle/ If you have a cheap reliable car, paltry insurance, and don't drive much you might just get down to $300-400 a month, but I think you're also underestimating your cost.

LoSboccacc 9y ago
Before people using the car for work or just for commuting to work make the switch to ai cars these need to provide some serious sla guarantees, because the cost in lost opportunity for a no show can be quite high.
gowld 9y ago
$700/month ($175/week, $20-$35/day) is a lot less than Uber costs for a daily commuter + weekend activity.
apotheothesomai 9y ago
It's only that high, if you're making car payments and/or driving hundreds of miles a week. The page also specifies this only applies to new cars, as of 2017. As long as the car payments aren't high and the commutes not really long, it's pretty reasonable. If your commutes are that long, a service would be outrageous. E.g., a company paid for my Uber trip from SF to Los Altos back in 2012, and it cost $125. I'm a statistical outlier fortunately. My car with excellent insurance costs me < $100/month.
gibybo 9y ago
My car is old but reliable. KBB says it's worth about $2,500 with 140k miles on it. It's made by Toyota and the total cost of repairs in the 60k miles I've owned it is has been less than $300 (alternator, battery, a belt, and some fluids), so I think it's reasonable to assume I'll get at least another 60k miles out of it with less than $1k in repairs. If we assume the worst case scenario where the car is worthless after the next 60k miles and I have to spend $1k repairing it, that's a total cost of 5.8 cents a mile. At 10k miles/year, that comes out to $48/month. I don't pay interest on a loan for it, but even if I did it would only be another $8/month at 4% APR. It gets 25 MPG, at 10k miles/year and $2.50/gallon, that's another $83/month. My insurance is $30/month. $48 + $8 + $83 + $30 = $169/month, well below $300-400. FWIW, I actually only drive about 6k miles a year, so my actual cost is only $29 + $8 (opportunity cost) + $50 + $30 = $117/month.

cm2187 9y ago

But why would self driving cars be significantly more expensive than regular cars? Most of the technologies they use are typically technologies which cost reduces dramatically when mass produced. Electric cars will be more expensive, but the price will likely converge in the long run. I am not entirely convinced car ownership will go away. The main argument in my mind is that most of the commute in a city happens at the same time. So if you want a car guaranteed, you kind of need to lock it in somehow.

mr_toad 9y ago
I’ve seen reports of $7500 or more just for one Lidar sensor: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/googles-waymo-reduces-lidar-cost-90-in-effort-to-scale-self-driving-cars-2017-1?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com.au/googles-waymo-reduces-lid... Sure, costs will come down, but the people who have the data (e.g Waymo and GM) seem to be banking on the taxi market, rather than selling these cars.
- TulliusCicero 9y ago
  Using them as taxis makes the initial cost of the sensors less important, not more important, since it's a fixed cost and taxis are driven much more than regular cars (especially true for ones that don't depend on a human driver).
- cm2187 9y ago
  And they will likely be the first customers, until volumes ramp up and prices go down. There are many places where taxis do not make sense or aren't optimal. Low density areas, daily commute at the peak hour in big cities (or in general any place where you have a one way flow), people using their car professionally, etc.