11 ms·

If prices decrease for AI drivers too, I could totally see myself selling my car entirely too. Granted, I live in a smaller city in Washington, ie not Seattle/e

If prices decrease for AI drivers too, I could totally see myself selling my car entirely too. Granted, I live in a smaller city in Washington, ie not Seattle/etc, so it'll be a while for me I'm sure. I'd be curious to see if a lot of people did a similar thing (giving up their cars). Price is the kicker here though. When I own a car, I can pretty much drive as frequently or infrequently as I want. Where as with Taxi's/etc, the cost would quickly rack up. So these AIs are going to have to be cheap by comparison. Man, the future of this tech is so exciting for me.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
bluGill 9y ago
There are a lot of unknown. First of all, what is a lot? 1% of the US would be around 3 million people, which is a lot of people and yet 1% is not very significant. Of course we know some people don't own a car, you can make your numbers look bigger or smaller depending on if you count them. (there are books on how to lie with statistics if you want to continue this line) There are people who are already close to giving up their car who will. I believe that most people will not give up their own car. Rush hour is a thing for a reason: most cars are driving during those hours, so your costs for a self driving car ride rental needs to account for that. Once your costs are not much different the utility of your own car is a price worth paying. I know that I can go shopping over lunch and leave my new toys in the trunk. I keep a spare diaper in my car just in case my kid needs one. When I go on vacation I often start packing the car a few days before. If you are frugal rides in a self driving car is probably more expensive than rides in your own car. Your payment has to cover oil changes (I change my own oil - I've concluded that it actually saves me time over driving to a mechanic). Your payment covers inspection/cleaning after every ride - nobody cleans their personal car that often. People who ride in a self driving car will demand newer cars even though a 12 year old car (if well maintained) works perfectly fine for the same task.
- treis 9y ago
  No one is going to clean/inspect cars after every ride. At best it will be once a day. More likely something like once a week or until someone complains. Same thing with the car age. They aren't going to cycle new cars in every few years. At best, they are going to replace the interiors in that time frame. It also doesn't account for the size of the car. People buy 4 seaters for the 10% (or whartever) of the time that they have passengers. Commuters will be perfectly fine with a 1 seater if they can order a bigger car when needed.
  - mavhc 9y ago
    Or share a car for 50% off the cost. They're going to recycle the cars faster than today, because they'll be used for closer to 100% of the time, rather than 10% today.
  - TheSoftwareGuy 9y ago
    I'm sure they could com up with removable upholstery (or upholstery covers) that they can clean separately and replace as often as needed. Its not a huge leap from floor mats and seat covers
    - pkaye 9y ago
      I was test driving a car this weekend and noticed the seat covers had some hidden zippers that would make it trivial to replace.
      - kgc 9y ago
        What car was it?
        pkaye 9y ago
        I looked at a couple cars so don't remember exactly which. I think is was a Subaru Forester. I was sitting in the back seat checking things out and noticed a tiny line along the back of the driver seat. Turns out it was an internal zipper with the ends tucked near the bottom. It think if you pulled those up, the whole back flap of the seat cover opens up.
moflome 9y ago
Forgive me but... we call them "trains," they run on time, rarely crash and usually go where we want them to -- once the government(s) agrees to build them that is! Seriously I do wonder, though, if the design of townships like yours will be directly affected by the rise of AV's. It would seem to make sense for Waymo and others to effectively lease depots (holding pens?) for when you and your fellow travelers need to hail a car. Are you/we effectively trading your individual garage space for a collective AV parking lot on the outskirts of town? And whether that development would compare favorably to investing in more intercity trains?
- 3pt14159 9y ago
  It will keep most of our (North America's) towns shitty. I don't understand why everyone wants to live in these horrible suburbs with grass you have to mow and a pool that every single person needs to build. I seriously have never once understood suburbs. I get living on 5+ acres, you got stuff you can build and do (tree houses, chicken coups, etc) but what is the point of putting yourself somewhere with nowhere you can walk and nowhere you can build? Also, can we talk about grass for a second? Why? Just why do we do it at all? Trees, shrubs, and flowers are so much nicer and easier, why do we need to make bright green rectangles with most of our lawns?
  - treis 9y ago
    How can you simultaneously say "a pool that every single person needs to build" and "nowhere you can build"? The appeal of the suburbs is pretty obvious. There's enough room for you to build a bigger house, some out structures like pools and sheds, and some grass for your kids/dog to play in. The downside of that is it isn't walkable. That downside might not make it worth it for you, but it's worth it for others.
    - CalRobert 9y ago
      Is it so obvious? I think for a lot of people the appeal of the suburbs is mostly "I could get a mortgage and I can commute to my job". Living in walkable areas in cities is really expensive (maybe because lots of people want to do it but they've been illegal to build for most of the last century?) I'm looking at homes and as housing prices have gone up 60% over the last 5 years where I am it's a question of "uggg do I just keep paying rent in the city centre forever or do I buy a place where I can afford one, which is mostly shittacular suburbs". I think a lot of other people are there by necessity, not choice, as well. The GP makes a good point actually because in that background to this decision there's always "screw this, I'll just move way out in the middle of nowhere and get a bunch of cheap land and a giant house, and work remote" but having a spouse who can't work remote affects that. The suburbs are the worst of both worlds.
notatoad 9y ago
>Price is the kicker here though. When I own a car, I can pretty much drive as frequently or infrequently as I want. if you've ever actually sat down and priced out how much each usage of your car costs you, it's not that good of a deal. Personal vehicles seem cheap because people treat them as a non-optional fixed cost, but between the cost of the vehicle itself, insurance, fuel, maintenance, and your time spent driving you can price a car service fairly high and still have it compare favourably to owning a car. The trick will just be to convince people to start thinking about a car service the same way they currently think about their car payments or fuel costs. I'd be curious to see what a per-month subscription service would look like instead of a per-ride fee structure like taxis or ubers currently use. $300-400/mo for unlimited rides would be, for me, a better deal than owning a car. I'm curious if that could be profitable.
- bluGill 9y ago
  I did, since I keep my cars for a long time (13 years and counting), and I drive a lot, cost of fuel is the largest share of my costs. The IRS allows ~$.55/mile (this changes regularly and I can't be bothered to look up the latest number), and I'm at 1/5th. For my truck the numbers are different, but every time I check it turns out you can't actually use a truck for a lot of the things I use my truck for, so even though my per miles costs are something like $5/mile I don't really have a choice for those uses.
  - notatoad 9y ago
    >and I drive a lot, this is probably the differentiator. I bike to work about 20% of the time in the winter, 80% of the time in the summer, and don't use my car for too much else. So the cost of the car and insurance amortized out over mile driven ends up being pretty high for me.
    - oblio 9y ago
      You also probably have an active partner, probably don’t have kids or some sort of disability, don’t have to go see family out of town, etc., etc. A car gives you a lot more freedom than public transport and is definitely cheaper than taxis (or Uber) for the average person.
dragonwriter 9y ago
> Price is the kicker here though. Kids are a major kicker, for much of the population, until cars are not only self-driving, but can also on-demand automatically reconfigure with a variety of different configurations of child restraint systems, so that you can on-demand get a vehicle configured for your number, age, and size of children.
- manmal 9y ago
  That sounds complicated and expensive, I think there will instead be a number of preferred cars in service, some for 1 baby, some for 1 small kid, some for 1 baby and 1 small kid, some for 2 small kids... or simpler, family cars with 2 variable kids‘ seats installed.
  - LoSboccacc 9y ago
    more likely a standard attachment system - like today isofix but with more payload options - with people purchasing (or renting as part of the service itself) the options as needed
  - gowld 9y ago
    don't forget to stock all the kids' toys in those cars.
- akgerber 9y ago
  Before we cared about how many children were killed by cars, kids piling onto bench seats was standard. Car seats are only required because car crashes are common. If the safety promise of self-driving is delivered, car seats will become unnecessary.
  - dragonwriter 9y ago
    > If the safety promise of self-driving is delivered, car seats will become unnecessary. If the total rate of accidents with self driving cars is so low that adults don't need seat belts and airbags, that might be true. I don't think anyone projects that to be the near-term result of self-driving cars being mixed with human-driven cars on the road.
russdill 9y ago
If such a thing were to take hold, you wouldn't need nearly as much parking at places of business or residence. But then, with so many cars, they'd still need a place to park while not in use. You might be able to rent out parking at your home for ride share vehicles.
RobLach 9y ago
TCO for a car is $8500/year on average, or roughly $700/month or $23/day. That doesn't include the time cost for servicing and dealing with a car that needs repair.
tuxguy 9y ago
Nobody on this thread, has accounted for the value of the time, that self driving cars or cabs, free up for you !
trophycase 9y ago
Don't forget the cost of giving these companies even more location data.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

bluGill 9y ago

There are a lot of unknown. First of all, what is a lot? 1% of the US would be around 3 million people, which is a lot of people and yet 1% is not very significant. Of course we know some people don't own a car, you can make your numbers look bigger or smaller depending on if you count them. (there are books on how to lie with statistics if you want to continue this line) There are people who are already close to giving up their car who will. I believe that most people will not give up their own car. Rush hour is a thing for a reason: most cars are driving during those hours, so your costs for a self driving car ride rental needs to account for that. Once your costs are not much different the utility of your own car is a price worth paying. I know that I can go shopping over lunch and leave my new toys in the trunk. I keep a spare diaper in my car just in case my kid needs one. When I go on vacation I often start packing the car a few days before. If you are frugal rides in a self driving car is probably more expensive than rides in your own car. Your payment has to cover oil changes (I change my own oil - I've concluded that it actually saves me time over driving to a mechanic). Your payment covers inspection/cleaning after every ride - nobody cleans their personal car that often. People who ride in a self driving car will demand newer cars even though a 12 year old car (if well maintained) works perfectly fine for the same task.

treis 9y ago
No one is going to clean/inspect cars after every ride. At best it will be once a day. More likely something like once a week or until someone complains. Same thing with the car age. They aren't going to cycle new cars in every few years. At best, they are going to replace the interiors in that time frame. It also doesn't account for the size of the car. People buy 4 seaters for the 10% (or whartever) of the time that they have passengers. Commuters will be perfectly fine with a 1 seater if they can order a bigger car when needed.
- mavhc 9y ago
  Or share a car for 50% off the cost. They're going to recycle the cars faster than today, because they'll be used for closer to 100% of the time, rather than 10% today.
- TheSoftwareGuy 9y ago
  I'm sure they could com up with removable upholstery (or upholstery covers) that they can clean separately and replace as often as needed. Its not a huge leap from floor mats and seat covers
  - pkaye 9y ago
    I was test driving a car this weekend and noticed the seat covers had some hidden zippers that would make it trivial to replace.
    - kgc 9y ago
      What car was it?
      - pkaye 9y ago
        I looked at a couple cars so don't remember exactly which. I think is was a Subaru Forester. I was sitting in the back seat checking things out and noticed a tiny line along the back of the driver seat. Turns out it was an internal zipper with the ends tucked near the bottom. It think if you pulled those up, the whole back flap of the seat cover opens up.

moflome 9y ago

Forgive me but... we call them "trains," they run on time, rarely crash and usually go where we want them to -- once the government(s) agrees to build them that is! Seriously I do wonder, though, if the design of townships like yours will be directly affected by the rise of AV's. It would seem to make sense for Waymo and others to effectively lease depots (holding pens?) for when you and your fellow travelers need to hail a car. Are you/we effectively trading your individual garage space for a collective AV parking lot on the outskirts of town? And whether that development would compare favorably to investing in more intercity trains?

3pt14159 9y ago
It will keep most of our (North America's) towns shitty. I don't understand why everyone wants to live in these horrible suburbs with grass you have to mow and a pool that every single person needs to build. I seriously have never once understood suburbs. I get living on 5+ acres, you got stuff you can build and do (tree houses, chicken coups, etc) but what is the point of putting yourself somewhere with nowhere you can walk and nowhere you can build? Also, can we talk about grass for a second? Why? Just why do we do it at all? Trees, shrubs, and flowers are so much nicer and easier, why do we need to make bright green rectangles with most of our lawns?
- treis 9y ago
  How can you simultaneously say "a pool that every single person needs to build" and "nowhere you can build"? The appeal of the suburbs is pretty obvious. There's enough room for you to build a bigger house, some out structures like pools and sheds, and some grass for your kids/dog to play in. The downside of that is it isn't walkable. That downside might not make it worth it for you, but it's worth it for others.
  - CalRobert 9y ago
    Is it so obvious? I think for a lot of people the appeal of the suburbs is mostly "I could get a mortgage and I can commute to my job". Living in walkable areas in cities is really expensive (maybe because lots of people want to do it but they've been illegal to build for most of the last century?) I'm looking at homes and as housing prices have gone up 60% over the last 5 years where I am it's a question of "uggg do I just keep paying rent in the city centre forever or do I buy a place where I can afford one, which is mostly shittacular suburbs". I think a lot of other people are there by necessity, not choice, as well. The GP makes a good point actually because in that background to this decision there's always "screw this, I'll just move way out in the middle of nowhere and get a bunch of cheap land and a giant house, and work remote" but having a spouse who can't work remote affects that. The suburbs are the worst of both worlds.

notatoad 9y ago

>Price is the kicker here though. When I own a car, I can pretty much drive as frequently or infrequently as I want. if you've ever actually sat down and priced out how much each usage of your car costs you, it's not that good of a deal. Personal vehicles seem cheap because people treat them as a non-optional fixed cost, but between the cost of the vehicle itself, insurance, fuel, maintenance, and your time spent driving you can price a car service fairly high and still have it compare favourably to owning a car. The trick will just be to convince people to start thinking about a car service the same way they currently think about their car payments or fuel costs. I'd be curious to see what a per-month subscription service would look like instead of a per-ride fee structure like taxis or ubers currently use. $300-400/mo for unlimited rides would be, for me, a better deal than owning a car. I'm curious if that could be profitable.

bluGill 9y ago
I did, since I keep my cars for a long time (13 years and counting), and I drive a lot, cost of fuel is the largest share of my costs. The IRS allows ~$.55/mile (this changes regularly and I can't be bothered to look up the latest number), and I'm at 1/5th. For my truck the numbers are different, but every time I check it turns out you can't actually use a truck for a lot of the things I use my truck for, so even though my per miles costs are something like $5/mile I don't really have a choice for those uses.
- notatoad 9y ago
  >and I drive a lot, this is probably the differentiator. I bike to work about 20% of the time in the winter, 80% of the time in the summer, and don't use my car for too much else. So the cost of the car and insurance amortized out over mile driven ends up being pretty high for me.
  - oblio 9y ago
    You also probably have an active partner, probably don’t have kids or some sort of disability, don’t have to go see family out of town, etc., etc. A car gives you a lot more freedom than public transport and is definitely cheaper than taxis (or Uber) for the average person.

dragonwriter 9y ago

> Price is the kicker here though. Kids are a major kicker, for much of the population, until cars are not only self-driving, but can also on-demand automatically reconfigure with a variety of different configurations of child restraint systems, so that you can on-demand get a vehicle configured for your number, age, and size of children.

manmal 9y ago
That sounds complicated and expensive, I think there will instead be a number of preferred cars in service, some for 1 baby, some for 1 small kid, some for 1 baby and 1 small kid, some for 2 small kids... or simpler, family cars with 2 variable kids‘ seats installed.
- LoSboccacc 9y ago
  more likely a standard attachment system - like today isofix but with more payload options - with people purchasing (or renting as part of the service itself) the options as needed
- gowld 9y ago
  don't forget to stock all the kids' toys in those cars.
akgerber 9y ago
Before we cared about how many children were killed by cars, kids piling onto bench seats was standard. Car seats are only required because car crashes are common. If the safety promise of self-driving is delivered, car seats will become unnecessary.
- dragonwriter 9y ago
  > If the safety promise of self-driving is delivered, car seats will become unnecessary. If the total rate of accidents with self driving cars is so low that adults don't need seat belts and airbags, that might be true. I don't think anyone projects that to be the near-term result of self-driving cars being mixed with human-driven cars on the road.

russdill 9y ago

If such a thing were to take hold, you wouldn't need nearly as much parking at places of business or residence. But then, with so many cars, they'd still need a place to park while not in use. You might be able to rent out parking at your home for ride share vehicles.

RobLach 9y ago

TCO for a car is $8500/year on average, or roughly $700/month or $23/day. That doesn't include the time cost for servicing and dealing with a car that needs repair.

tuxguy 9y ago

Nobody on this thread, has accounted for the value of the time, that self driving cars or cabs, free up for you !

trophycase 9y ago

Don't forget the cost of giving these companies even more location data.