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It's becoming clearer and clearer that the main things preventing total EV takeover are lack of good products on the market and production capacity. I'm excited
by rawrmaan 9y ago
It's becoming clearer and clearer that the main things preventing total EV takeover are lack of good products on the market and production capacity. I'm excited to hopefully watch both of these problems erode in the next 5 years.
Really really ready to stop breathing fossil fuels all day every day in the city.
- d--b 9y agoAnd sound!
- yorby 9y agoartificial sounds (because they are too quiet)
- Guereric 9y agoFrom my understanding, the requirement for artificial sounds when reversing already exists for big trucks and haulers, regardless of the type of engine inside, for the safety of pedestrians. It's the quietness of small electric vehicles, like cars and SUVs, that prompted the requirement in consumer vehicles.
- yorby 9y agoas long as they are not powered by coal power plants... (but I guess that those are typically in poor neighborhoods)
- p1necone 9y agoIt's still a decent improvement if they are - one big coal plant running at relatively constant speed is much more efficient than an equivalent number of individual petrol engines in cars afaik.
- maliker 9y agoMore energy efficient, yes. But resulting more CO2 and SOx and NOx emissions even with scrubbers.
- moongarammasala 9y agoThat really isn't true anymore - EVs are still greener than any petrol car for 75% of the US population, and that will go up! https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electric-vehicles-continue-to-get-cleaner https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electri...
- maliker 9y agoFor the current generation mix, which is a lot of natural gas and some renewables, you’re right. And I agree the mix will get greener.
- p1necone 9y agoAh I wasn't aware of that. Emissions are definitely the primary concern, at least for me.
- mikeash 9y agoCoal makes up only a third of American electrical generation, and it’s dropping rapidly.
- yorby 9y agoonly a third? wow, I thought that it was less then 25%
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoOnly 30% of USA power comes from coal, and it’s much lower on the west coast than elsewhere.
- bgarbiak 9y agoCoal is one thing, the environmental cost of producing batteries is another. You have to drive your 100kWh Tesla for over 8 years to get carbon emissions lower than ICE cars[1]. That number probably got lower thanks to Gigafactory being more efficient. Hopefully. 1) https://www.autovistagroup.com/news-and-insights/swedish-study-calls-smaller-ev-batteries-finds-tesla-more-polluting-8-year-old https://www.autovistagroup.com/news-and-insights/swedish-stu...
- nickysielicki 9y agoThe main thing preventing total flying car takeover is the lack of good flying cars on the market and production capacity.
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoWell, physics, safety, and energy efficiency play a huge role there as well.
- bobsil1 9y ago*specific energy of batteries and FAA regs
- aerovistae 9y agoUh, no. This is one of those really specious arguments that sounds clever until you think about it. The main thing preventing total flying car takeover is that there is no technology that would make the product viable-- as has been pointed out, it would be EXTREMELY loud, create immense downdrafts, and create massive safety risks far beyond those of terrestrial cars. Similarly, the main thing preventing robotic takeover of the cleaning industry is that there are not yet any robots capable of generically handling all cleaning tasks like sweeping, dusting furniture, washing windows, organizing a cupboard, mowing the lawn and so on. It's not just that there is no production line-- there isn't even one such robot nor is anyone capable of making one. Etc. I dislike this kind of empty reasoning. It derails conversations with baseless non-logic.
- nickysielicki 9y ago"You're derailing the conversation!" said the man who had just finished enumerating the practical issues of flying cars and cleaning robots.
- newnewpdro 9y agoI totally agree with you except on one point: > there is no technology that would make the product viable Unless it's only a matter of R&D before we have vehicles that can fly without blowing air around. It's plausible that a technology may exist in the future which makes this viable.
- mrep 9y agoFedex has 14,500 trucks [0]. That will put tesla's at .13% of the fleet which sounds just like they are buying some to test the economic viability of them. I would hardly use this as a sign "that the main things preventing total EV takeover are lack of good products on the market and production capacity". [0]: https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/fedex-statistics/ https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/fedex-statistics/
- thaumaturgy 9y agoSure, but you wouldn't expect FedEx to replace their entire fleet this year. A somewhat more meaningful number is how many new FedEx freight trucks will be built by Tesla over the next year. And UPS has placed an order for 125 of them (https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/tesla-semi-electric-truck-order-fedex/ https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/tesla-semi-electric-truck-ord...) as well. You're right that this isn't going to radically transform the country's freight fleet overnight, but I think it's a signal that these companies are willing to switch to EV technology if it works. The next hurdle now seems to be Tesla's ability to execute.
- thewhitetulip 9y agoFew things transform overnight, most of them take time.
- rawrmaan 9y agoFair point, but you have to take this development in context. EVs technologically outpace ICE vehicles on every axis other than refuel time, upfront cost and range. EVs can improve on all of these metrics, whereas ICE vehicles cannot. Therefore a complete switch is only a matter of time—it remains to be seen how quickly it will happen.
- bri3d 9y agoICE still have a decent amount of efficiency headroom, so range and operational cost will continue to improve if auto and truck makers choose to spend the 80% investment to squeeze the last 20% out. Automakers seem pretty split - some are building initiatives to go full electric while others are focused on the ICE endgame. We'll see what large equipment and truck manufacturers do but I think the time horizon is quite long.
- rjdagost 9y agoI wouldn't get too carried away with this announcement. For FedEx, this is a minuscule pilot project and (more importantly) a cheap way to generate positive publicity.
- Proven 9y agoGreat products, but the only problem is (almost) nobody wants them. Hence we need the State to steal via taxes and spend on whatever the intellectual elite determines is in our best interest.