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It's not. It's the zero-sum thinking of a totalitarian dictatorship that's a problem. For example, simply letting the Taiwanese live their own free and happy l

It's not. It's the zero-sum thinking of a totalitarian dictatorship that's a problem. For example, simply letting the Taiwanese live their own free and happy lives is too much of "a problem" to let go without threatening invasion on a weekly basis :) Also, there is geopolitics at play. The Thucydides Trap is real.

adinobro 9y ago
Which is completely different to the US and Cuba...
- adventured 9y ago
  Indeed it is entirely different. The US isn't seeking to annex Cuba, and Cuba is entirely free to trade with the rest of the world. China threatens and throws tantrums if Taiwan so much as gets any recognition from other nations. China doesn't even want Taiwan's leader to be able to directly speak to the US, or for their politicians to be able to visit the US. If Raul Castro gets on a plane and goes to France or South Africa, the US doesn't threaten unspecified severe consequences for just talking to or meeting with Casto.
  - dnomad 9y ago
    Yeah, this is dumb. From China's perspective Taiwan is as much a part of China as Florida is part of the US. How would the US react if Florida declared itself independent and began negotiating treaties with foreign governments? In fact we have good precedent for how the US deals with breakaway states. From that point of view China has shown remarkable constraint when dealing with what most people, including the Tawainese themselves, agree is a part of China.
    - mafribe 9y ago
      If it was true that "most people, including the Tawainese themselves, agree is a part of China", then mainland China would/should have no problem whatsoever with a binding Taiwanese independence referendum. It is precisely because mainland China knows very well that the majority of Taiwanese want independence, that the mainland objects to free and fair independence referendum. The mainland assumes they would loose. * * * The secession of US states is clarified in the US constitution [1], and the US Supreme Court, in Texas v. White [2], ruled unilateral secession unconstitutional, while commenting that revolution or consent of the States could lead to a successful secession. Note that Texas v. White happened over a century ago. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secession_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secession_in_the_United_States [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._White https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._White
      - dis-sys 9y ago
        independence referendum? such as the recent Catalan independence referendum in Spain? Why EU/US both rejected its outcome when the people of Catalan clearly made the case with a successful & peaceful independence referendum?
        mafribe 9y ago
        That referendum is an interesting edge case, as I wrote in my post above. Spain could have handled the Catalan issue much better, that is certainly true. One crucial difference is that neither the EU nor the Spanish government threaten violence and military invasion. This contrasts very favourably with Xi Jinping and his cronys incessant bullying of Taiwan.
    - westiseast 9y ago
      The Florida comparison isn’t really apt - indeed a lot of the comparisons/equivalents being drawn in this thread conveniently ignore key elements. * PRC (the CCP) considers Taiwan to be part of the PRC (and part of ‘China’ the country). At best it’s referred to as a breakaway province. * The ROC considers themselves to be ‘China’, and part of ‘China’, but not subject to CCP rule or a province of the PRC. * The CCP has no actual direct rule over Taiwan in practice. Taiwanese people vote for their leaders, have their own laws, don’t follow PRC laws in any sense, hold separate Taiwanese currency and passports, require mainland visitors to acquire a visa, have independent trade deals and defense treaties with other sovereign nations etc etc. Regardless of what you think should happen, anyone suggesting comparisons with Cuba/USA, Scotland/UK, Florida/USA etc is either ignorant, or deliberately muddying the waters to score an ideological point.
      - mafribe 9y ago
        Why is a comparison with Scotland/UK ignorant, or deliberately muddying the waters? I'd say it would demonstrate great political maturity, if the PRC were to allow Taiwan to conduct a binding vote about independence, and accept the outcome. It would greatly increase the PRC's standing in the world, and its soft power. Right now, basically nobody trusts the PRC, and their increasing influence is simply a consequence of their spreading money around.
        westiseast 9y ago
        It’s a bad comparison because the actual, legal and historical situations are vastly different. eg. > if the PRC were to allow Taiwan to conduct... Taiwan is de facto an independent country. The only extent to which the PRC can ‘allow’ or not allow something to happen in Taiwan is with the threat of invasion, which is vastly different to how the UK parliament ‘allowed’ Scotland to conduct an independence referendum. I’m not saying that it wouldn’t be desirable for the PRC to remove the threat of military action and recognize a fair and binding referendum, but comparisons with Scotland tend to imply that Taiwan/China situation is just like UK/Scotland. Which is isn’t even slightly.
        9y ago
    - whatyoucantsay 9y ago
      > what most people, including the Tawainese themselves, agree is a part of China. I truly cannot distinguish if you're trolling or serious. You continue repeating the same points throughout this thread and they are not true. Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Before the KMT invaded, Taiwan was part of the Japanese Empire. Claiming the PRC gets all territory once owned by the Qing Dynasty is roughly equivalent to Germany claiming all territory once owned by Prussia. It doesn't lead anywhere pleasant. Your comments are reprehensible and I wish for you never have the experience of your home being under constant threat from an increasingly wealthy and aggressive neighbor.
wyattpeak 9y ago
While I agree that their attitudes towards Taiwan are inappropriate, it's a stretch to suggest that this is an issue of totalitarian government. There's not a major government on earth (and probably not a minor one), of any political persuasion, which hasn't faced and rejected an attempt at secession.
- factsaresacred 9y ago
  > an attempt at secession. Please. Taiwan is not a part of the PRC. What would they be seceding from? They're a sovereign State founded by the losers of China's civil war. (That the Nationalists lost is one of China's great tragedies given the horrors that Mao and the ruling party inflicted on the Chinese people and their traditions). Anyway, take Japan and the Senkaku islands as another example of Chinese bellicose jingoism fueled by a policy of nationalism designed to detract from threats to its legitimacy.
  - dnomad 9y ago
    This is pure nonsense. It's remarkable how such ignorance propagates through the Western media. I wonder is it deliberate? Talk to the Taiwanese themselves. Both the ROC and the PRC view Taiwan as part of China and view themselves as the legitimate government of all of China.
    - mafribe 9y ago
      Anecdata: I have spent a great deal of time in Taiwan, and have not met a Taiwanese person who wanted to unify with the mainland, especially as long as the mainland was governed by the communist party. Let's not forget that a great deal of Taiwanese fled from the communists. What is true is that many Taiwanese fear the mainland and think peaceful surrender is preferable to a military invasation by the mainland. Many Taiwanese fear that nobody will defend them if/when the Mainland invades. Note also that the Taiwanese look to Hong Kong, and observe the slow erosion of the vestiges of democracy there.
      - 9y ago
coupdetaco 9y ago
Do you think there is reason to believe that the thucydides trap would be either mitigated or amplified by global connectivity.
- foodislove 9y ago
  Historically speaking, the only significant peaceful comparison would be the British -> US circa 1950s. To be fair, people asked the same question in the 1900s. With the world getting so interconnected thanks to steamships and telegraphs, perhaps the age of major conflict had passed (this was right before ww1). Also, global connectivity doesn't mean much when the great firewall creates 2 distinctly different internets. If you take Chinese state media as a barometer of public opinion, you clearly see there is very little affinity towards the rest of the world. The xenophobia and nationalism, if anything, is more likely to lead to conflict because nationalism is a double edged sword. Best case scenario is the status quo. Even though China wants a bigger say in global affairs, they realize they have benefited from a peaceful international system over the last half-century and it's in their interest to preserve it largely intact. They have some long-term plays like "one belt" infrastructure, but that's something to supplement the existing system rather than to replace. Personally I think the most likely risk is economic. No country can escape the laws of economics forever. At some point, the economy will have a downturn. Like with Putins Russia, when things are bad domestically, there is pressure to create conflict abroad (aka Ukraine) to distract their people which if managed badly, could turn out quite ugly

adinobro 9y ago

Which is completely different to the US and Cuba...

adventured 9y ago
Indeed it is entirely different. The US isn't seeking to annex Cuba, and Cuba is entirely free to trade with the rest of the world. China threatens and throws tantrums if Taiwan so much as gets any recognition from other nations. China doesn't even want Taiwan's leader to be able to directly speak to the US, or for their politicians to be able to visit the US. If Raul Castro gets on a plane and goes to France or South Africa, the US doesn't threaten unspecified severe consequences for just talking to or meeting with Casto.
- dnomad 9y ago
  Yeah, this is dumb. From China's perspective Taiwan is as much a part of China as Florida is part of the US. How would the US react if Florida declared itself independent and began negotiating treaties with foreign governments? In fact we have good precedent for how the US deals with breakaway states. From that point of view China has shown remarkable constraint when dealing with what most people, including the Tawainese themselves, agree is a part of China.
  - mafribe 9y ago
    If it was true that "most people, including the Tawainese themselves, agree is a part of China", then mainland China would/should have no problem whatsoever with a binding Taiwanese independence referendum. It is precisely because mainland China knows very well that the majority of Taiwanese want independence, that the mainland objects to free and fair independence referendum. The mainland assumes they would loose. * * * The secession of US states is clarified in the US constitution [1], and the US Supreme Court, in Texas v. White [2], ruled unilateral secession unconstitutional, while commenting that revolution or consent of the States could lead to a successful secession. Note that Texas v. White happened over a century ago. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secession_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secession_in_the_United_States [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._White https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._White
    - dis-sys 9y ago
      independence referendum? such as the recent Catalan independence referendum in Spain? Why EU/US both rejected its outcome when the people of Catalan clearly made the case with a successful & peaceful independence referendum?
      - mafribe 9y ago
        That referendum is an interesting edge case, as I wrote in my post above. Spain could have handled the Catalan issue much better, that is certainly true. One crucial difference is that neither the EU nor the Spanish government threaten violence and military invasion. This contrasts very favourably with Xi Jinping and his cronys incessant bullying of Taiwan.
  - westiseast 9y ago
    The Florida comparison isn’t really apt - indeed a lot of the comparisons/equivalents being drawn in this thread conveniently ignore key elements. * PRC (the CCP) considers Taiwan to be part of the PRC (and part of ‘China’ the country). At best it’s referred to as a breakaway province. * The ROC considers themselves to be ‘China’, and part of ‘China’, but not subject to CCP rule or a province of the PRC. * The CCP has no actual direct rule over Taiwan in practice. Taiwanese people vote for their leaders, have their own laws, don’t follow PRC laws in any sense, hold separate Taiwanese currency and passports, require mainland visitors to acquire a visa, have independent trade deals and defense treaties with other sovereign nations etc etc. Regardless of what you think should happen, anyone suggesting comparisons with Cuba/USA, Scotland/UK, Florida/USA etc is either ignorant, or deliberately muddying the waters to score an ideological point.
    - mafribe 9y ago
      Why is a comparison with Scotland/UK ignorant, or deliberately muddying the waters? I'd say it would demonstrate great political maturity, if the PRC were to allow Taiwan to conduct a binding vote about independence, and accept the outcome. It would greatly increase the PRC's standing in the world, and its soft power. Right now, basically nobody trusts the PRC, and their increasing influence is simply a consequence of their spreading money around.
      - westiseast 9y ago
        It’s a bad comparison because the actual, legal and historical situations are vastly different. eg. > if the PRC were to allow Taiwan to conduct... Taiwan is de facto an independent country. The only extent to which the PRC can ‘allow’ or not allow something to happen in Taiwan is with the threat of invasion, which is vastly different to how the UK parliament ‘allowed’ Scotland to conduct an independence referendum. I’m not saying that it wouldn’t be desirable for the PRC to remove the threat of military action and recognize a fair and binding referendum, but comparisons with Scotland tend to imply that Taiwan/China situation is just like UK/Scotland. Which is isn’t even slightly.
        9y ago
  - whatyoucantsay 9y ago
    > what most people, including the Tawainese themselves, agree is a part of China. I truly cannot distinguish if you're trolling or serious. You continue repeating the same points throughout this thread and they are not true. Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Before the KMT invaded, Taiwan was part of the Japanese Empire. Claiming the PRC gets all territory once owned by the Qing Dynasty is roughly equivalent to Germany claiming all territory once owned by Prussia. It doesn't lead anywhere pleasant. Your comments are reprehensible and I wish for you never have the experience of your home being under constant threat from an increasingly wealthy and aggressive neighbor.

wyattpeak 9y ago

While I agree that their attitudes towards Taiwan are inappropriate, it's a stretch to suggest that this is an issue of totalitarian government. There's not a major government on earth (and probably not a minor one), of any political persuasion, which hasn't faced and rejected an attempt at secession.

factsaresacred 9y ago
> an attempt at secession. Please. Taiwan is not a part of the PRC. What would they be seceding from? They're a sovereign State founded by the losers of China's civil war. (That the Nationalists lost is one of China's great tragedies given the horrors that Mao and the ruling party inflicted on the Chinese people and their traditions). Anyway, take Japan and the Senkaku islands as another example of Chinese bellicose jingoism fueled by a policy of nationalism designed to detract from threats to its legitimacy.
- dnomad 9y ago
  This is pure nonsense. It's remarkable how such ignorance propagates through the Western media. I wonder is it deliberate? Talk to the Taiwanese themselves. Both the ROC and the PRC view Taiwan as part of China and view themselves as the legitimate government of all of China.
  - mafribe 9y ago
    Anecdata: I have spent a great deal of time in Taiwan, and have not met a Taiwanese person who wanted to unify with the mainland, especially as long as the mainland was governed by the communist party. Let's not forget that a great deal of Taiwanese fled from the communists. What is true is that many Taiwanese fear the mainland and think peaceful surrender is preferable to a military invasation by the mainland. Many Taiwanese fear that nobody will defend them if/when the Mainland invades. Note also that the Taiwanese look to Hong Kong, and observe the slow erosion of the vestiges of democracy there.
    - 9y ago

coupdetaco 9y ago

Do you think there is reason to believe that the thucydides trap would be either mitigated or amplified by global connectivity.

foodislove 9y ago
Historically speaking, the only significant peaceful comparison would be the British -> US circa 1950s. To be fair, people asked the same question in the 1900s. With the world getting so interconnected thanks to steamships and telegraphs, perhaps the age of major conflict had passed (this was right before ww1). Also, global connectivity doesn't mean much when the great firewall creates 2 distinctly different internets. If you take Chinese state media as a barometer of public opinion, you clearly see there is very little affinity towards the rest of the world. The xenophobia and nationalism, if anything, is more likely to lead to conflict because nationalism is a double edged sword. Best case scenario is the status quo. Even though China wants a bigger say in global affairs, they realize they have benefited from a peaceful international system over the last half-century and it's in their interest to preserve it largely intact. They have some long-term plays like "one belt" infrastructure, but that's something to supplement the existing system rather than to replace. Personally I think the most likely risk is economic. No country can escape the laws of economics forever. At some point, the economy will have a downturn. Like with Putins Russia, when things are bad domestically, there is pressure to create conflict abroad (aka Ukraine) to distract their people which if managed badly, could turn out quite ugly