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With advertisers pulling out, this is officially turning into a shitstorm. But it's surprisingly frustrating watching everyone slowly catch on to what I had alr

With advertisers pulling out, this is officially turning into a shitstorm. But it's surprisingly frustrating watching everyone slowly catch on to what I had already figured out 8 years ago about the nature of Facebook. Even more so when I think about all the people who'll just go right back when the outrage dies down.

isomorphic 9y ago
It's not a shitstorm until Facebook announces subsequent quarterlies with a material decrease in revenue. Then it will be a shitstorm. Until then any stock movement is just Wall Street.
adventured 9y ago
It's really not turning into a shitstorm. People are comforting themselves by telling themselves that. Here's what is going to happen. - Facebook's finances won't be meaningfully impacted at all. Advertisers are not going to abandon FB in any consequential numbers. They'll spit off ~$21 billion in net income in 2018 and end the year with around $50 billion in cash. One of the richest corporations in world history, at the age of 15. Comparable to the income production of Microsoft, a juggernaut that is 40 years old. - Zuckerberg and Facebook will go to Washington, so to speak. They'll bow down as the powers want them to, pledge changes, blah blah blah. We're so very sorry we helped Donald Trump to get elected, we promise it won't happen again. - Some new monster US Government bureaucracy will be crafted. It'll simultaneously be claimed to protect privacy while assisting the government in further abusing it. The Digital Protection Agency. It will also make compliance increasingly costly and difficult, benefiting the existing tech giants, entrenching their positions against start-up competition. This will increase stagnation. [1] - A very tiny, entirely meaningless, portion of Facebook users will quit. It will be 1% or less. Most people don't care. Even the ones that do, will overwhelmingly continue using the platform to broadcast their opinions or photos or just to communicate with friends & family generally. - Political speech and political advertising will be further restricted online. The big tech platforms will become regulated stand-in government & political party censorship systems, as with traditional broadcast media of past generations. This is aggressively being put into place now, across every major social network. They're all going to comply willingly. - Political power, and the power of these tech giants, will be more entrenched than ever before. It will become even harder to unseat those already in power. The duopoly politcal party system in the US, will ensure its survival at the top of the food chain and will regulate the platforms to their benefit, as was the case with traditional media. Again, this is taking place right now. Nothing will prevent it. As the tech giants increasingly pledge fealty - while on their knees begging forgiveness - to the existing political system in DC - the two parties - their survival will be guaranteed and protected through regulation and favors. This is tradition at this point, going back nearly a century. The powers that be in Washington don't care who wins in tech, or how much money the winners make, they care about obedience to their agenda of maintaing control & power. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/paul-ford-facebook-is-why-we-need-a-digital-protection-agency https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/paul-ford...
- smsm42 9y ago
  > It will be 1% or less. 1% is like 10 million. More like 0.001% or less. I know many non-tech people using FB. I don't know any of them who considered quitting FB because of such concerns and it's unlikely they would. I mean, they can feel concerned or even outraged about FB shenanigans - just like when they hear yet another politician has been caught stealing millions or harassing employees or selling his vote to the highest bidder - but they don't move to another country because of that. Otherwise, your bleak picture seems to be entirely correct.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
smsm42 9y ago
Not "advertisers" but one advertiser that has vested interest in capitalizing on privacy concerns (I do not imply Mozilla's concerns not genuine, just that their selling point is already to emphasize this aspect, so they are not your average advertiser in this regard). When your local mattress store or electronics vendor start shunning the platform, then we can talk about a trend. Right now it's just one organization doing a PR move. > But it's surprisingly frustrating watching everyone slowly catch on to what I had already figured out 8 years ago about the nature of Facebook Everybody knows. Not everybody cares. I would estimate about 99% of non-technical people don't. > about all the people who'll just go right back when the outrage dies down. Which is exactly what would happen.

isomorphic 9y ago

It's not a shitstorm until Facebook announces subsequent quarterlies with a material decrease in revenue. Then it will be a shitstorm. Until then any stock movement is just Wall Street.

adventured 9y ago

It's really not turning into a shitstorm. People are comforting themselves by telling themselves that. Here's what is going to happen. - Facebook's finances won't be meaningfully impacted at all. Advertisers are not going to abandon FB in any consequential numbers. They'll spit off ~$21 billion in net income in 2018 and end the year with around $50 billion in cash. One of the richest corporations in world history, at the age of 15. Comparable to the income production of Microsoft, a juggernaut that is 40 years old. - Zuckerberg and Facebook will go to Washington, so to speak. They'll bow down as the powers want them to, pledge changes, blah blah blah. We're so very sorry we helped Donald Trump to get elected, we promise it won't happen again. - Some new monster US Government bureaucracy will be crafted. It'll simultaneously be claimed to protect privacy while assisting the government in further abusing it. The Digital Protection Agency. It will also make compliance increasingly costly and difficult, benefiting the existing tech giants, entrenching their positions against start-up competition. This will increase stagnation. [1] - A very tiny, entirely meaningless, portion of Facebook users will quit. It will be 1% or less. Most people don't care. Even the ones that do, will overwhelmingly continue using the platform to broadcast their opinions or photos or just to communicate with friends & family generally. - Political speech and political advertising will be further restricted online. The big tech platforms will become regulated stand-in government & political party censorship systems, as with traditional broadcast media of past generations. This is aggressively being put into place now, across every major social network. They're all going to comply willingly. - Political power, and the power of these tech giants, will be more entrenched than ever before. It will become even harder to unseat those already in power. The duopoly politcal party system in the US, will ensure its survival at the top of the food chain and will regulate the platforms to their benefit, as was the case with traditional media. Again, this is taking place right now. Nothing will prevent it. As the tech giants increasingly pledge fealty - while on their knees begging forgiveness - to the existing political system in DC - the two parties - their survival will be guaranteed and protected through regulation and favors. This is tradition at this point, going back nearly a century. The powers that be in Washington don't care who wins in tech, or how much money the winners make, they care about obedience to their agenda of maintaing control & power. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/paul-ford-facebook-is-why-we-need-a-digital-protection-agency https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/paul-ford...

smsm42 9y ago
> It will be 1% or less. 1% is like 10 million. More like 0.001% or less. I know many non-tech people using FB. I don't know any of them who considered quitting FB because of such concerns and it's unlikely they would. I mean, they can feel concerned or even outraged about FB shenanigans - just like when they hear yet another politician has been caught stealing millions or harassing employees or selling his vote to the highest bidder - but they don't move to another country because of that. Otherwise, your bleak picture seems to be entirely correct.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

smsm42 9y ago

Not "advertisers" but one advertiser that has vested interest in capitalizing on privacy concerns (I do not imply Mozilla's concerns not genuine, just that their selling point is already to emphasize this aspect, so they are not your average advertiser in this regard). When your local mattress store or electronics vendor start shunning the platform, then we can talk about a trend. Right now it's just one organization doing a PR move. > But it's surprisingly frustrating watching everyone slowly catch on to what I had already figured out 8 years ago about the nature of Facebook Everybody knows. Not everybody cares. I would estimate about 99% of non-technical people don't. > about all the people who'll just go right back when the outrage dies down. Which is exactly what would happen.