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That's not really true. Progress and upward economic development increase the faith of the public and the Communist Party rank-and-file in the Communist Party l

That's not really true. Progress and upward economic development increase the faith of the public and the Communist Party rank-and-file in the Communist Party leadership. The Communist Party leadership has a strong incentive to promote growth.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> the Communist Party leadership has a strong incentive to promote growth But Xi Jinping does not.
- rm_-rf_slash 9y ago
  How so? Isn’t unprecedented growth and prosperity the bedrock which supports the Communist Party? Wouldn’t continued growth then be an affirmation of Xi’s policies? What’s in it for him if the economy stagnates or recesses?
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- justicezyx 9y ago
  He does want growth. Otherwise he wont have power... I mean, the dictator is not stupid.
- darawk 9y ago
  Yes he does. Growth makes people wealthier, which makes them happy with the government. If China's growth stops, you better believe there will be serious civil unrest.
  - JumpCrisscross 9y ago
    My point isn't that Xi Jinping doesn't want growth. It's that he doesn't want growth as badly, nor on the same time horizons, as the CCP. If he has to cause permanent harm to China's productive potential to hold on to power for a few more years, history suggests he will. This is the reason dictatorships trash countries and why Deng Xiaoping wisely implemented term limits.
    - darawk 9y ago
      We agree then. His primary goal is likely to be to hold on to power. Growth is definitely only something he wants in service of that prime directive.
- amphibian87 9y ago
  Oh, on the contrary. His legitimacy is directly related to his ability to have stability, and that stability comes from employment. When you are a state-run economy, you make sure everyone is employed, even if it's not profitable, because that's how you keep them from going all Tienamen Square on the leadership. So they spend a lot, and they loan a ton, to prop up their growth numbers. The CCP subsidizes growth by dumping goods in several markets and looking the other way at companies stealing intellectual property. They are willing to loan money at such low rates (one belt one road) because they see more of a return usually then what they normally do with money.
  - sumedh 9y ago
    > and that stability comes from employment. and suppressing freedom of expression
xenihn 9y ago
I don't understand why you're referring to the Chinese Communist Party as a single entity. There's multiple groups within it vying for power, each with their own agendas and visions for China's future.
leggomylibro 9y ago
I think that it is really true. The CCP's implicit bargain is that it delivers perpetually increasing growth and economic prosperity to the average person (compared to last year), and the average person keeps their mouth shut. That bargain breaks down when growth stops accelerating, and obviously you can't have accelerating growth forever. The CCP's real overarching goal is to "maintain social stability," and that is exactly as dystopian as it sounds, if not more so. And stifling discussion is a big part of that; this sort of comment would definitely ding your 'score'.
- adventured 9y ago
  One of the points of Xi's new dictatorship, is precisely that China can't keep the growth engines going any longer as is. They had to take on $40 trillion in debt over the last eight years to keep faking growth. Every year they 'grow' their GDP by $600 or $700 billion, they have to take on $3 to $4 trillion in new debt to do it. Their total debt to GDP ratio is now nearly the worst of any country, and it's expected to get worse by another ~75% in just the next five years. I think Xi knows the economic party is over and that there are going to be extremely bad social consequences to that coming up. The dictatorship is meant to possess the power necessary to put down those consequences in any way they deem necessary.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

> the Communist Party leadership has a strong incentive to promote growth But Xi Jinping does not.

rm_-rf_slash 9y ago
How so? Isn’t unprecedented growth and prosperity the bedrock which supports the Communist Party? Wouldn’t continued growth then be an affirmation of Xi’s policies? What’s in it for him if the economy stagnates or recesses?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
justicezyx 9y ago
He does want growth. Otherwise he wont have power... I mean, the dictator is not stupid.
darawk 9y ago
Yes he does. Growth makes people wealthier, which makes them happy with the government. If China's growth stops, you better believe there will be serious civil unrest.
- JumpCrisscross 9y ago
  My point isn't that Xi Jinping doesn't want growth. It's that he doesn't want growth as badly, nor on the same time horizons, as the CCP. If he has to cause permanent harm to China's productive potential to hold on to power for a few more years, history suggests he will. This is the reason dictatorships trash countries and why Deng Xiaoping wisely implemented term limits.
  - darawk 9y ago
    We agree then. His primary goal is likely to be to hold on to power. Growth is definitely only something he wants in service of that prime directive.
amphibian87 9y ago
Oh, on the contrary. His legitimacy is directly related to his ability to have stability, and that stability comes from employment. When you are a state-run economy, you make sure everyone is employed, even if it's not profitable, because that's how you keep them from going all Tienamen Square on the leadership. So they spend a lot, and they loan a ton, to prop up their growth numbers. The CCP subsidizes growth by dumping goods in several markets and looking the other way at companies stealing intellectual property. They are willing to loan money at such low rates (one belt one road) because they see more of a return usually then what they normally do with money.
- sumedh 9y ago
  > and that stability comes from employment. and suppressing freedom of expression

xenihn 9y ago

I don't understand why you're referring to the Chinese Communist Party as a single entity. There's multiple groups within it vying for power, each with their own agendas and visions for China's future.

leggomylibro 9y ago

I think that it is really true. The CCP's implicit bargain is that it delivers perpetually increasing growth and economic prosperity to the average person (compared to last year), and the average person keeps their mouth shut. That bargain breaks down when growth stops accelerating, and obviously you can't have accelerating growth forever. The CCP's real overarching goal is to "maintain social stability," and that is exactly as dystopian as it sounds, if not more so. And stifling discussion is a big part of that; this sort of comment would definitely ding your 'score'.

adventured 9y ago
One of the points of Xi's new dictatorship, is precisely that China can't keep the growth engines going any longer as is. They had to take on $40 trillion in debt over the last eight years to keep faking growth. Every year they 'grow' their GDP by $600 or $700 billion, they have to take on $3 to $4 trillion in new debt to do it. Their total debt to GDP ratio is now nearly the worst of any country, and it's expected to get worse by another ~75% in just the next five years. I think Xi knows the economic party is over and that there are going to be extremely bad social consequences to that coming up. The dictatorship is meant to possess the power necessary to put down those consequences in any way they deem necessary.