4 ms·

Has there been any documented rise yet or is it supposed to start later?

sintaxi 9y ago
There was a huge rise around 12,800-11,600 years ago after the last ice age came to an abrupt end. As far as I'm aware ocean levels have been mostly stable ever since.
- mkempe 9y ago
  Formally, the current ice age hasn't ended and its effects will return in full force; we happen to live in an interglacial period, still overall a colder climate than when the Earth has not been in an Ice Age.
  - sintaxi 9y ago
    You might be right. I'm talking specifically about the 26k year cycle due to earths wobble.
joshuahedlund 9y ago
Measurements have been averaging a little above 3mm per year for the last two decades[0]. This is believed to be about double the post-Ice-Age background rate of a century ago, and it is predicted to accelerate further (though it has yet to do so noticeably). [0]http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
- godshatter 9y ago
  In fact, that same graph used to have a trend line of 3.2 mm/yr, and is now 3.1. I've been checking in with that site off-and-on for the last few years. At the current linear rate, we're looking at an increase of 0.25m by 2100. To get to the 1m by 2100 that is predicted, we would have to have a linear sea level rise of 12.4 mm/yr. The graph displayed shows some variable years a few years ago, but it's mostly been pretty linear. The graph shows 20 years or so of data, and we're 82 years out from 2100. I would expect to see it curving up sometime soon, but it hasn't done that yet.
  - sitkack 9y ago
    I would expect SLR to be highly nonlinear.
phaemon 9y ago
There is a nice interactive graph of the Jason series satellite data at: https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indica... You can see the acceleration by shifting the time sliders to choose different years.

There was a huge rise around 12,800-11,600 years ago after the last ice age came to an abrupt end. As far as I'm aware ocean levels have been mostly stable ever since.

mkempe 9y ago
Formally, the current ice age hasn't ended and its effects will return in full force; we happen to live in an interglacial period, still overall a colder climate than when the Earth has not been in an Ice Age.
- sintaxi 9y ago
  You might be right. I'm talking specifically about the 26k year cycle due to earths wobble.

joshuahedlund 9y ago

Measurements have been averaging a little above 3mm per year for the last two decades[0]. This is believed to be about double the post-Ice-Age background rate of a century ago, and it is predicted to accelerate further (though it has yet to do so noticeably). [0]http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

godshatter 9y ago
In fact, that same graph used to have a trend line of 3.2 mm/yr, and is now 3.1. I've been checking in with that site off-and-on for the last few years. At the current linear rate, we're looking at an increase of 0.25m by 2100. To get to the 1m by 2100 that is predicted, we would have to have a linear sea level rise of 12.4 mm/yr. The graph displayed shows some variable years a few years ago, but it's mostly been pretty linear. The graph shows 20 years or so of data, and we're 82 years out from 2100. I would expect to see it curving up sometime soon, but it hasn't done that yet.
- sitkack 9y ago
  I would expect SLR to be highly nonlinear.

phaemon 9y ago

There is a nice interactive graph of the Jason series satellite data at: https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indica... You can see the acceleration by shifting the time sliders to choose different years.