4 ms·

Thank you for taking the time to respond. As an aside, politically, I'm entirely unwilling to credit this to the last year. My own prior reading (ok, mostly o

Thank you for taking the time to respond. As an aside, politically, I'm entirely unwilling to credit this to the last year. My own prior reading (ok, mostly of news articles, albeit reasonably well-informed ones), described such effects as typically being a minimum of a year out from policy initiatives. 18 months being a more typical minimum. The Great Recession hit me hard, and I've not seen the bounce back. Nor have others I know in my age bracket (later middle-age). That may color my perspective. The country spent years digging out from the last financial disaster. And not the messaging seems to be, if you didn't grab as much as you could, it's your own fault. P.S. And I do recall, a few years ago, the emphasis upon short term unemployment rates, avoiding discussion of the long-term unemployed and those who'd, from the perspective of the parameters of the statistical exercise, exited the labor market. Thank you for addressing that to some extent. I do wonder, though, within specific demographics, what the levels of such may continue to be. Have an upvote. I'm not complaining about your response -- to be clear. :-)

adventured 9y ago
> I'm entirely unwilling to credit this to the last year. I'm in full agreement with that. This is a multi-stage procession of factors stretching back to 2010-2011. Economies, left well enough to their own and barring any extreme events, tend to improve/recover naturally. I also think we're going to need more time to fully recover from the severe damage that occurred during the great recession. The complex effects and suffering of that kind of hit are well beyond the headline numbers and should be expected to take many years to heal. Economists are puzzled by wage growth not being higher (eg 3.5% vs 2.5% or similar) based on where unemployment is at - I think it's because we've only just got back to something close to a healthy labor market, whereas they think we're in the midst of something a notch or two higher than that already. To recover from economic trauma, it's not enough to just return to former headline numbers, you actually have to recover from the psychology damage (as is well known the great depression, which was of course even worse, left people traumatized for life). People behave differently after that kind of trauma, they make different choices, they fear risk more (which can lead to job stagnation, or fear to pursue better opportunities etc), and so on. Trump may or may not unleash some so called animal spirits, in his rah rah behavior and policies (and or harm as much, from strategically poor thinking on trade), however the economy was grinding this direction likely regardless of anything the President might do. Very generally speaking, outside of insane policy settings (eg a corporate tax rate at 70%), if you manage to not upset/crash an economy for an extended period of time, and otherwise maintain a reasonable playing field, you'll see amazing economic gains over time leaving your people to their own pursuits. I regard our challenge right now, as being to sustain this tight labor market as long as possible to push beyond mere recovery and into fundamental generational improvement for everyone (everything from the median wage, to the median net wealth figures, to wages for blacks and hispanics, to what are considered minimum wage levels, and on to job benefits). The tight labor market, if sustained long enough, will claw back some of the share of profit toward labor, and I expect the wage & benefits increase over time can be considerable given the vast profit levels in corporate America today. Even if you held wages relatively steady and increased things like vacation time or maternity leave, it'd be quite an improvement.

adventured 9y ago

> I'm entirely unwilling to credit this to the last year. I'm in full agreement with that. This is a multi-stage procession of factors stretching back to 2010-2011. Economies, left well enough to their own and barring any extreme events, tend to improve/recover naturally. I also think we're going to need more time to fully recover from the severe damage that occurred during the great recession. The complex effects and suffering of that kind of hit are well beyond the headline numbers and should be expected to take many years to heal. Economists are puzzled by wage growth not being higher (eg 3.5% vs 2.5% or similar) based on where unemployment is at - I think it's because we've only just got back to something close to a healthy labor market, whereas they think we're in the midst of something a notch or two higher than that already. To recover from economic trauma, it's not enough to just return to former headline numbers, you actually have to recover from the psychology damage (as is well known the great depression, which was of course even worse, left people traumatized for life). People behave differently after that kind of trauma, they make different choices, they fear risk more (which can lead to job stagnation, or fear to pursue better opportunities etc), and so on. Trump may or may not unleash some so called animal spirits, in his rah rah behavior and policies (and or harm as much, from strategically poor thinking on trade), however the economy was grinding this direction likely regardless of anything the President might do. Very generally speaking, outside of insane policy settings (eg a corporate tax rate at 70%), if you manage to not upset/crash an economy for an extended period of time, and otherwise maintain a reasonable playing field, you'll see amazing economic gains over time leaving your people to their own pursuits. I regard our challenge right now, as being to sustain this tight labor market as long as possible to push beyond mere recovery and into fundamental generational improvement for everyone (everything from the median wage, to the median net wealth figures, to wages for blacks and hispanics, to what are considered minimum wage levels, and on to job benefits). The tight labor market, if sustained long enough, will claw back some of the share of profit toward labor, and I expect the wage & benefits increase over time can be considerable given the vast profit levels in corporate America today. Even if you held wages relatively steady and increased things like vacation time or maternity leave, it'd be quite an improvement.