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Can you elaborate more on why China's increasing military budget is a disturbing sign to you? China spends a mere 1.9% of its GDP in 2016 and that number is sm

by bgee 9y ago

Can you elaborate more on why China's increasing military budget is a disturbing sign to you? China spends a mere 1.9% of its GDP in 2016 and that number is smaller than from Vietnam, Korea, India even Singapore [0]. To me China is only trying catching up its neighbors. BTW Japan's PM has just submitted his 2018 Military Budget and if approved would be the 6th "straight annual increase" [1]. [0]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?end=2016&order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbap&start=2016&view=bar&year_high_desc=true https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?end=2... [1]: https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/whats-in-japans-record-2018-defense-budget-request/ https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/whats-in-japans-record-2018-... Disclaimer: I'm Chinese.

drraid0 9y ago
It is disturbing because China did not hesitate to kill 10000 of their own people in 1989 on a shoestring budget, and faced no consequence. Who knows what they would do to Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, etc.
- yongjik 9y ago
  > Who knows what they would do to Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, etc. Okay, that's at least two countries that killed 10000+ of their own people since WW2.
- bgee 9y ago
  If we are on the subject of what crimes against humanity should prevent a country getting what kind of weapon, Asia-raping Japan is on the brink of acquiring nukes according to some comments below, do you find that disturbing? Sorry for the whataboutism but I think how each country is perceived when spending money on military is worth discussing.
  - drraid0 9y ago
    Yes. But Japan has been mostly, um, "inert" and peaceful since WW2. China's history since WW2, to this day, has been one of one atrocity after another. Things seem to be getting worse with Winnie the Pooh declaring him eternal president. Also, if Japan was Asia raping in WW2, China is China-raping now.
    - cptskippy 9y ago
      Japan is still bound by article 9 of it's constitution but let us not pretend that they haven't been trying to get rid of that article or sent their defense force to play war in the middle east "strictly for defensive purposes". That being said; between the two, China today is more like Japan during WWII than Japan today is.
      - krapp 9y ago
        >but let us not pretend that they haven't been trying to get rid of that article or sent their defense force to play war in the middle east "strictly for defensive purposes". The PM and his party (the LDP) in coalition with the Komeito party have been trying to push that for years, without success. Mostly because the Japanese people don't seem to support it. And to be fair, revising Article 9 and not going on a romp through the Middle East is also an option. I can see the rationale for doing so, besides right-wing nationalism on Japan's part.
        cptskippy 9y ago
        > And to be fair, revising Article 9 and not going on a romp through the Middle East is also an option. I can see the rationale for doing so, besides right-wing nationalism on Japan's part. That's definitely a possibility, however removing Article 9 is seen as a threat by China and might be a tactical error. Japan hasn't had any trouble building the defense force. If anything having Article 9 in place is plausible deniability for hostilities against China.
- forkLding 9y ago
  I highly doubt China will start a war, its not financially positive, unless they wanted to just expend some of their excess population. I rather think domination via trade, investment, manufacturing and economical means is more plausible because thats what they're doing right now and they have more resources and capabilities to do more. As well, its never good to fight a land war in Asia, korea, afghanistan, vietnam, cambodia and others has demonstrated that, as from a military perspective, you would be losing lives trying to police an area where locals have a more-than-significant population advantage over you. Modern military tactics are no longer invade via land forces with air as support but rather spread fake news via social media and watch for signs of weakness in cyber structures.
cptskippy 9y ago
> China spends a mere 1.9% of its GDP in 2016 > BTW Japan's PM has just submitted his 2018 Military Budget and if approved would be the 6th "straight annual increase" China's 2016 GDP was 11.2 Trillion USD and their Military budget was 1.9% or 212 Billion USD. Japan's 2016 GDP was 4.9 Trillion USD and their Military budget was 0.9% or 44 Billion USD. Japan spends 20% of what China does. Part of Japan's military spending goes directly towards maintaining US Military Bases in Japan. Starting in 2019 they won't pay to maintain US bases AND their budget will be limited to 0.8% of GDP. (See your own article for reference) Let's also not forget that Japanese constitution currently forbids them from using their military to settle international disputes.[0] In other words Japan can't attack or declare war on anyone and their military can only be used for defensive purposes. > Can you elaborate more on why China's increasing military budget is a disturbing sign to you? China is propping up North Korea[1] who launches ICBMs over Japan for fun.[2] China and Russia are holding naval military exercises in Japan's backyard.[3] China has been building up it's Navy. China has become increasingly aggressive in territorial disputes with others. China and Japan have a territorial dispute.[6] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_9_of_the_Japanese_Constitution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_9_of_the_Japanese_Cons... [1] https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/12/when-will-china-finally-get-tired-propping-north-korea/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/12/when-will-chi... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_t... [3] https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/asia/china-russia-south-china-sea-exercises/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/asia/china-russia-south-china... [4] https://globalsecurityreview.com/china-rapidly-bolstering-naval-maritime-military-capabilities/ https://globalsecurityreview.com/china-rapidly-bolstering-na... [5] https://www.nytimes.com/topic/destination/chinas-territorial-disputes https://www.nytimes.com/topic/destination/chinas-territorial... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute
vondur 9y ago
I've also read that China spends more on internal security than on it's own military.
adventured 9y ago
The 1.9% figure you're quoting, is almost universally regarded to be an undercount, aka a lie. At best their actual military spending figures are very fuzzy. "The Chinese, for example, do not count their research-and-development expenditures, the considerable amount they pay for foreign military purchases, the huge subsidies for their defense industry (which is composed mostly of enterprises owned by the state), or their spending on the Chinese coast guard despite many of their “maritime law enforcement” ships being in effect naval vessels" https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/07/united-states-defense-spending-false-comparisons-china-other-countries-heritage-foundation-report/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/07/united-states-defense... http://nationalinterest.org/feature/hy-chinas-military-budget-larger-it-appears-19716 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/hy-chinas-military-budge... http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/05/23/5-things-the-pentagon-isnt-telling-us-about-the-chinese-military/ http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/05/23/5-things-the-pentagon-is... https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/ https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/
- bgee 9y ago
  In the Foreign Policy article you are quoting: "Although China’s official 2012 defense budget is $106 billion, ...the Pentagon places China’s total military spending at somewhere between $120 and $180 billion." So we take the number in the middle ($150 billion) and assume it's always a 50% undercut (extremely inaccurate estimate), this will put China's 2016 budget to 1.92%*1.5=2.88%, still lower than Singapore's.
  - jotm 9y ago
    Are you seriously comparing Singapore's relative military spending to China's? There's got to be a point where % mean nothing, and this is definitely it. Singapore could spend it's whole GDP on the military and China can still wipe it off the face of the Earth :/
debt 9y ago
It's usually not except within in the context of Xi Xinping appointing himself ruler for life. The combination is cause for concern.
- kolbe 9y ago
  Is there something in particular about him that you find scary? I'm not sure why length of rule should play such a large part in this calculus.
  - debt 9y ago
    "I'm not sure why length of rule should play such a large part." Look to all of human history and you'll find your answer.
    - kolbe 9y ago
      What are you talking about? The most aggressive country since WW2 has been a representative democracy with 8 year term limits. And before 1900, aside from Ancient Greece and Rome, there's basically no examples of people with term limits.
  - AnimalMuppet 9y ago
    Personally, the big thing I find scary about him is that he abolished term limits for himself. Oh, yeah, and he enshrined his thinking in the constitution. Why should length of rule be such a large part of my opinion of him? Well, let's pick a different leader. Suppose Trump wanted to change the US Constitution so that he could remain president for an unlimited time. Would that set off alarm bells for you? It would for me. Why would it set off alarm bells? Because that leader thinks that he needs more time in office than the rules allow, and is willing to alter the rules to do what he wants. Also, why does he want it? One option is that he thinks that the country needs his leadership, his in particular - nobody else can do it, it has to be him. Such people have an inflated view of their own importance and competence, and a diminished sense of others' importance and competence. That often doesn't end well - the leader thinks they have no need to listed to anyone else. The other option for "why do they think they need it" is worse - they just want the power, and are willing to remove all obstacles to get and keep it. The point of their power is to keep their power, not what is good for the country. That usually works out badly for the country.
olympus 9y ago
This is a sign that Xi Jinping wants to become a dictator, and it concerns other countries if a giant country like China with a massive military is controlled by a dictator with unlimited power. China has every right to have a large military to defend itself, but a dictator might use the military to be aggressive to other countries. China's GDP is several times bigger[1] than Vietnam, Korea, India, and Singapore, so spending a smaller percentage is still a larger absolute amount. Even India, the closest competitor that you listed is only 1/5 as big by GDP, and in absolute terms has a smaller military. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbap&year_high_desc=true https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?order=wb...
- Dolores12 9y ago
  Go check https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history China has always been ruled by dynasties. I don't see any specific reason why it should change under Xi. It is a wet dream of USA to bring instability to China to weaken rising dragon.
  - darawk 9y ago
    Who cares about history? Europe was ruled by monarchies until it switched to democracy, for the better. China should do the same.
    - Dolores12 9y ago
      What make you think that being under monarchy Europe would yield different result? China is a great example of being a communist state where people's life is getting better and better. Political stability is a key to economic growth.
      - darawk 9y ago
        China is only growing economically to the extent that it's relaxed its socialist, authoritarian policies. As soon as it reasserts them, all that growth will go away. The fact that people's lives are improving is not sufficient evidence that the government is benevolent. There is only one thing that reliably predicts human behavior: incentives. The incentives of the communist party are much more weakly aligned with the welfare of their people than those in democratic countries. It's as simple as that.
rtx 9y ago
China has been getting aggressive with India, sometimes it feels like somebody needs a war to manage economics.
- gaius 9y ago
  China has been getting aggressive with India India is a nuclear power. Then again so is the UK and Argentina still invaded, so maybe that's not so much of a deterrent.
  - tomc1985 9y ago
    Would the UK really nuke Argentina over the Falklands? That's just absurd.
    - gaius 9y ago
      Well, that’s exactly my point. China could probably annex some Indian territory too, without provoking a nuclear response.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
jjeaff 9y ago
See other articles cited in the parent comment regarding human rights abuses and censorship for reasons as to why any military increase in China is not good.

by bgee 9y ago

drraid0 9y ago

It is disturbing because China did not hesitate to kill 10000 of their own people in 1989 on a shoestring budget, and faced no consequence. Who knows what they would do to Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, etc.

yongjik 9y ago
> Who knows what they would do to Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, etc. Okay, that's at least two countries that killed 10000+ of their own people since WW2.
bgee 9y ago
If we are on the subject of what crimes against humanity should prevent a country getting what kind of weapon, Asia-raping Japan is on the brink of acquiring nukes according to some comments below, do you find that disturbing? Sorry for the whataboutism but I think how each country is perceived when spending money on military is worth discussing.
- drraid0 9y ago
  Yes. But Japan has been mostly, um, "inert" and peaceful since WW2. China's history since WW2, to this day, has been one of one atrocity after another. Things seem to be getting worse with Winnie the Pooh declaring him eternal president. Also, if Japan was Asia raping in WW2, China is China-raping now.
  - cptskippy 9y ago
    Japan is still bound by article 9 of it's constitution but let us not pretend that they haven't been trying to get rid of that article or sent their defense force to play war in the middle east "strictly for defensive purposes". That being said; between the two, China today is more like Japan during WWII than Japan today is.
    - krapp 9y ago
      >but let us not pretend that they haven't been trying to get rid of that article or sent their defense force to play war in the middle east "strictly for defensive purposes". The PM and his party (the LDP) in coalition with the Komeito party have been trying to push that for years, without success. Mostly because the Japanese people don't seem to support it. And to be fair, revising Article 9 and not going on a romp through the Middle East is also an option. I can see the rationale for doing so, besides right-wing nationalism on Japan's part.
      - cptskippy 9y ago
        > And to be fair, revising Article 9 and not going on a romp through the Middle East is also an option. I can see the rationale for doing so, besides right-wing nationalism on Japan's part. That's definitely a possibility, however removing Article 9 is seen as a threat by China and might be a tactical error. Japan hasn't had any trouble building the defense force. If anything having Article 9 in place is plausible deniability for hostilities against China.
forkLding 9y ago
I highly doubt China will start a war, its not financially positive, unless they wanted to just expend some of their excess population. I rather think domination via trade, investment, manufacturing and economical means is more plausible because thats what they're doing right now and they have more resources and capabilities to do more. As well, its never good to fight a land war in Asia, korea, afghanistan, vietnam, cambodia and others has demonstrated that, as from a military perspective, you would be losing lives trying to police an area where locals have a more-than-significant population advantage over you. Modern military tactics are no longer invade via land forces with air as support but rather spread fake news via social media and watch for signs of weakness in cyber structures.

cptskippy 9y ago

> China spends a mere 1.9% of its GDP in 2016 > BTW Japan's PM has just submitted his 2018 Military Budget and if approved would be the 6th "straight annual increase" China's 2016 GDP was 11.2 Trillion USD and their Military budget was 1.9% or 212 Billion USD. Japan's 2016 GDP was 4.9 Trillion USD and their Military budget was 0.9% or 44 Billion USD. Japan spends 20% of what China does. Part of Japan's military spending goes directly towards maintaining US Military Bases in Japan. Starting in 2019 they won't pay to maintain US bases AND their budget will be limited to 0.8% of GDP. (See your own article for reference) Let's also not forget that Japanese constitution currently forbids them from using their military to settle international disputes.[0] In other words Japan can't attack or declare war on anyone and their military can only be used for defensive purposes. > Can you elaborate more on why China's increasing military budget is a disturbing sign to you? China is propping up North Korea[1] who launches ICBMs over Japan for fun.[2] China and Russia are holding naval military exercises in Japan's backyard.[3] China has been building up it's Navy. China has become increasingly aggressive in territorial disputes with others. China and Japan have a territorial dispute.[6] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_9_of_the_Japanese_Constitution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_9_of_the_Japanese_Cons... [1] https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/12/when-will-china-finally-get-tired-propping-north-korea/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/12/when-will-chi... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_t... [3] https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/asia/china-russia-south-china-sea-exercises/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/asia/china-russia-south-china... [4] https://globalsecurityreview.com/china-rapidly-bolstering-naval-maritime-military-capabilities/ https://globalsecurityreview.com/china-rapidly-bolstering-na... [5] https://www.nytimes.com/topic/destination/chinas-territorial-disputes https://www.nytimes.com/topic/destination/chinas-territorial... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute

vondur 9y ago

I've also read that China spends more on internal security than on it's own military.

adventured 9y ago

The 1.9% figure you're quoting, is almost universally regarded to be an undercount, aka a lie. At best their actual military spending figures are very fuzzy. "The Chinese, for example, do not count their research-and-development expenditures, the considerable amount they pay for foreign military purchases, the huge subsidies for their defense industry (which is composed mostly of enterprises owned by the state), or their spending on the Chinese coast guard despite many of their “maritime law enforcement” ships being in effect naval vessels" https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/07/united-states-defense-spending-false-comparisons-china-other-countries-heritage-foundation-report/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/07/united-states-defense... http://nationalinterest.org/feature/hy-chinas-military-budget-larger-it-appears-19716 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/hy-chinas-military-budge... http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/05/23/5-things-the-pentagon-isnt-telling-us-about-the-chinese-military/ http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/05/23/5-things-the-pentagon-is... https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/ https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/

bgee 9y ago
In the Foreign Policy article you are quoting: "Although China’s official 2012 defense budget is $106 billion, ...the Pentagon places China’s total military spending at somewhere between $120 and $180 billion." So we take the number in the middle ($150 billion) and assume it's always a 50% undercut (extremely inaccurate estimate), this will put China's 2016 budget to 1.92%*1.5=2.88%, still lower than Singapore's.
- jotm 9y ago
  Are you seriously comparing Singapore's relative military spending to China's? There's got to be a point where % mean nothing, and this is definitely it. Singapore could spend it's whole GDP on the military and China can still wipe it off the face of the Earth :/

debt 9y ago

It's usually not except within in the context of Xi Xinping appointing himself ruler for life. The combination is cause for concern.

kolbe 9y ago
Is there something in particular about him that you find scary? I'm not sure why length of rule should play such a large part in this calculus.
- debt 9y ago
  "I'm not sure why length of rule should play such a large part." Look to all of human history and you'll find your answer.
  - kolbe 9y ago
    What are you talking about? The most aggressive country since WW2 has been a representative democracy with 8 year term limits. And before 1900, aside from Ancient Greece and Rome, there's basically no examples of people with term limits.
- AnimalMuppet 9y ago
  Personally, the big thing I find scary about him is that he abolished term limits for himself. Oh, yeah, and he enshrined his thinking in the constitution. Why should length of rule be such a large part of my opinion of him? Well, let's pick a different leader. Suppose Trump wanted to change the US Constitution so that he could remain president for an unlimited time. Would that set off alarm bells for you? It would for me. Why would it set off alarm bells? Because that leader thinks that he needs more time in office than the rules allow, and is willing to alter the rules to do what he wants. Also, why does he want it? One option is that he thinks that the country needs his leadership, his in particular - nobody else can do it, it has to be him. Such people have an inflated view of their own importance and competence, and a diminished sense of others' importance and competence. That often doesn't end well - the leader thinks they have no need to listed to anyone else. The other option for "why do they think they need it" is worse - they just want the power, and are willing to remove all obstacles to get and keep it. The point of their power is to keep their power, not what is good for the country. That usually works out badly for the country.

olympus 9y ago

This is a sign that Xi Jinping wants to become a dictator, and it concerns other countries if a giant country like China with a massive military is controlled by a dictator with unlimited power. China has every right to have a large military to defend itself, but a dictator might use the military to be aggressive to other countries. China's GDP is several times bigger[1] than Vietnam, Korea, India, and Singapore, so spending a smaller percentage is still a larger absolute amount. Even India, the closest competitor that you listed is only 1/5 as big by GDP, and in absolute terms has a smaller military. [1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbap&year_high_desc=true https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?order=wb...

Dolores12 9y ago
Go check https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history China has always been ruled by dynasties. I don't see any specific reason why it should change under Xi. It is a wet dream of USA to bring instability to China to weaken rising dragon.
- darawk 9y ago
  Who cares about history? Europe was ruled by monarchies until it switched to democracy, for the better. China should do the same.
  - Dolores12 9y ago
    What make you think that being under monarchy Europe would yield different result? China is a great example of being a communist state where people's life is getting better and better. Political stability is a key to economic growth.
    - darawk 9y ago
      China is only growing economically to the extent that it's relaxed its socialist, authoritarian policies. As soon as it reasserts them, all that growth will go away. The fact that people's lives are improving is not sufficient evidence that the government is benevolent. There is only one thing that reliably predicts human behavior: incentives. The incentives of the communist party are much more weakly aligned with the welfare of their people than those in democratic countries. It's as simple as that.

rtx 9y ago

China has been getting aggressive with India, sometimes it feels like somebody needs a war to manage economics.

gaius 9y ago
China has been getting aggressive with India India is a nuclear power. Then again so is the UK and Argentina still invaded, so maybe that's not so much of a deterrent.
- tomc1985 9y ago
  Would the UK really nuke Argentina over the Falklands? That's just absurd.
  - gaius 9y ago
    Well, that’s exactly my point. China could probably annex some Indian territory too, without provoking a nuclear response.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

jjeaff 9y ago

See other articles cited in the parent comment regarding human rights abuses and censorship for reasons as to why any military increase in China is not good.