12 ms·

German cars have the most to lose from a changing auto industry

71 points by oska 9y ago

konschubert 9y ago
The German public and car industry is fighting tooth and nail against any change in drivetrain technology. The push to outlaw old diesel engines in city centers is met with cries about "deindustrialization". We also mostly drive stick here. I think the jury is still out if cleaner car technology will actually win or if we will keep living in poisoned cities. Maybe German car makers will come out ahead by focusing on strong, loud and polluting cars. I sure hope they won't.
- adventured 9y ago
  It will become uneconomical to stick to IC cars as the entire world shifts to electric over the next ~30 years. Germany's auto makers will disappear in that scenario, because they'll lose all the global markets. Just losing part of those markets will destroy their margins due to the change in economies of scale. Their only good bet is to aggressively adapt. I'm sure they will, even if they drag their feet initially. Toyota has put themselves in a similar running from behind scenario, because their leadership chose to put a lot of effort and money into hydrogen instead of the lithium-ion approach. I'd bet on them similarly eventually throwing immense resources into catching up.
- vetinari 9y ago
  > We also mostly drive stick here. During last years, there was a huge push to change that and sell as much as possible new cars with automatic transmission. For example, nowadays it is almost impossible to get a car with manual transmission, 4x4, and not an anaemic, preferably petrol engine (forget about atmospheric one). If you accept automatic, you can choose from almost all brands.
  - TomMarius 9y ago
    This is true for premium brands only. The "normal" ones are still actively selling combinations of everything you've said including manual transmission. Petrol engine is not preferred by EU people, they prefer diesel; it's true that nowadays there isn't much of a choice if you want petrol, though.
    - vetinari 9y ago
      It is true for "normal" ones too. I was checking recently, and the cut-off seemed to be at 110kW (1.5TSI) for VW Group (Skoda, Seat) and 118kW for Mazda. Above that, only automatic.
      - TomMarius 9y ago
        I don't know any 'normal' (as in regular) people who would buy above that. Europeans are used to small cubatures, the average would be around 1.6 to 1.8 (and that's considered big). You can buy 2.0 TDi Skoda with manual (consider they have different offerings across Europe).
        vetinari 9y ago
        Here, the 2.0 TDI with manual is the 110kW one, just like the 1.5 TSI one, also available with manual. If you want bigger engine, i.e. 2.0 TSI 132 kW or 2.0 TDI 140 kW, it's DSG only.
    - walshemj 9y ago
      That is for tax reasons, the same reason lng conversions where popular in Italy (where evading / reducing tax is a national sport). Btw this is a quote from my Italian driving instructor at the time
- lima 9y ago
  > The German public and car industry is fighting tooth and nail against any change in drivetrain technology. This is not true. The German car industry is heavily investing in electric cars. Source: friend is engineering manager for a major supplier
  - adrianN 9y ago
    Ten years too late?
    - cornholio 9y ago
      Early enough to catch the transition to mainstream of the electric car and mass adoption. That is at least 10 years away.
  - konschubert 9y ago
    That's good to hear! I'm glad to be proven wrong.
- threeseed 9y ago
  None of this is at all true to me. BMW was one of the first to come out with electric cars with the "i series". Audi is releasing 3 new electric drivetrains under the e-tron branding. Mercedes had a massive news release last month where they are building a global battery news to go with an upcoming global rollout of new electric cars: https://electrek.co/2018/01/29/mercedes-benz-electric-vehicle-production-global-battery-network/ https://electrek.co/2018/01/29/mercedes-benz-electric-vehicl... This idea that the top auto manufacturers are just sitting around waiting for their industry to be taken over by electric startups is just laughable.
  - rsync 9y ago
    "BMW was one of the first to come out with electric cars with the "i series"." That was one car. A single model - the i3. The i8 does not count since it's a hybrid with a little lawnmower engine hidden inside. I am hopeful that things can change but what I see from BMW and (especially) Volvo is the same old press releases about a concept car that will be available three years from now. They just keep writing the same press releases but shifting the dates forward.
mcny 9y ago
If anyone here is in Germany, I'd like to ask you: what will it take for you to stop driving? Previously on hn: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16375534 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16375534
- ItsMe000001 9y ago
  After I moved back from the US to Germany after having lived and worked there for almost a decade I never got a car. I walk (that's the #1 mode of transport by far), I bike (#2), I use public transport (rarely). In the US I drove enough to last a lifetime, I spent way too much time of my life in cars. The worst of owning a car is that I have to spend so much time and energy on that... "thing". Where yo I park it? Is it clean? Does it need an inspection? Insurance? It's like owning a horse but without the benefits (of a living companion). I use the horse not because of the transport analogy but because it's big and requires lots of your time and resources too (food, insurance, medical expenses, housing it,...).
  - vetinari 9y ago
    Frankly, none of the things you mentioned as a hurdle I see as such: Where to park it? In garage, obviously. Is it clean? Mostly yes, washing is a matter of 30 minutes. Does it need an inspection? Once in two years. Insurance? Just like another bill, you can pay it over Internet too. However: Do you live alone? If no, how do you do your shopping, for example? Do you have kids? If yes, how do you transport them?
    - foepys 9y ago
      > Where to park it? In garage, obviously. Most people in Germany don't have a garage. Apart from that: the other part of the question is "where do I park my car when I'm not at home?", which is about 50% of the time. Inner cities in Germany don't have giant parking spots but narrow streets with parallel parking on the street with parking fees.
      - vetinari 9y ago
Glawen 9y ago
Embedded sw automotive engineer here. The article suggest that the german industry may not cope with more computer centric vehicles. I think thats just laughable, it is them who introduced computer controlled engine (motronic) or invented ABS and ESP which are computer controlled brakes. Don't underestimate them in this field just because they are not using Python to develop their car. Their suppliers are leading the automotive industry, providing the best electronic and SW money can buy in a lot of car components. Ok they arrogantly ignored the hybrid and EVs and focused only on ICE, but I believe they will quickly catch up, just look at the bmw i3 for example. It is however true that the end of ICE will be a huge blow to their industry, with millions of people poised to lose their jobs. But that is the same for every country having a lot of carmakers. In my opinion the only field where they will not be able to catch up are autonomous vehicle, it is too abstract and revolutionary for them. It does not fit the german way of innovation based on small incremental innovative steps.
- Theodores 9y ago
  Here is a little feature on the way Bosch are fully prepared for the EV future: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHXi7Bvi_gE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHXi7Bvi_gE The components are good to go, it is up to the car manufacturers to start using this kit in their vehicles. So where are these car manufacturers? You can buy the whole drivetrain and electronics from Bosch, put it in a box with some seats in it and the job is done. Despite this relative ease it seems that we are not getting that out of the German auto manufacturers. It is lip service, a promise to have EV everything by year 202x as another 6.3 litre AMG G-Wagen with upgraded fluffy heated seats is launched. I think a lot will have to wait for the baby boomer generation to die off or get too old to be safe on the autobahns any more. I don't believe that future generations will be pleasuring themselves at the sound of V-whatever engines with noisy exhaust notes in the way that mid-life crisis types do today (as they 'sit in traffic' in their 'ultimate driving machines'). These things will go the way of steam engines on railways. We were once romantically attached to steam trains in much the same way that today's frustrated old people are attached to the fake exhaust notes on their Porsche/AMG/BMW/Audi cars. One good thing is that today's high end cars are not built to last. Sure all the corrosion proofing is better than it was in 1963 but the financing of cars and the fact that you can't fix them yourself means that they get scrapped soon after they make it onto the second hand market. Why pay $$$$ to get that gearbox replaced when you can just lease-hire a brand new car for $$$ a month? Bosch and others are doing great things in the pedal powered electric bicycle market. If you are a bicycle manufacturer then you just need to bolt the Bosch bits to a slightly modified bike and the job is a good one. The barrier to entry is really quite low, hence the profusion of electric bicycle models. It will be funny if the same happens with EV cars, with new market players from China coming along to make easy what VW et al. struggle to do. I do feel that the German auto industry is in better shape for the EV challenge than what is happening in Italy and France. For instance, the PSA group - Peugeot/Citroen - recently brought out some monster SUV under a new deluxe brand - 'DS' - and that has a big clunky diesel in it, not some hybrid or EV. They are playing catch up with the German brands, trying to go high end, but you know that these stillborn dinosaurs are never going to be seen on the roads. PSA also got burdened with the GM Opel/Vauxhall relics. Meanwhile in Italy the Fiat group burdened themselves with all of that Chrysler legacy cruft. So at least the German auto industry is going forward.
neonate 9y ago
https://outline.com/325zSr https://outline.com/325zSr
crb002 9y ago
I was impressed by the user interface of the Audi Q5, while at the same time horrified of the the attack surface that goes far beyond the Jeep hack. Germans, especially Audi, need to hardware condom media system writes to the CAN bus and cordon off sides of the driver dash into separate screens the media system can't spoof writes onto.
John_KZ 9y ago
The article assumes the following as "truths": * There is a real anti-diesel sentiment, and diesel phasing out will happen * Electric vehicles are an upcoming reality * Driverless vehicles are desirable and will dominate the market And finally, * The German auto industry is unprepared to deal with these facts Honestly I completely disagree on all 4 points. Electric vehicles are and will remain very expensive and inconvenient for a while. Their post-subsidy prices make clear that they constitute tax-funded toys for the rich. Autonomous/Driverless vehicles are also a novelty that we'll pay with a lot of blood. It's clear that we'll need at least 1-2 decades to reach a point where you can place reasonable trust to such a system for your daily commute. As for the diesel problem, there is a chance that some environmentalist lobby will eventually cause diesel cars for personal use to be phased out, but right now it's more of a social media meme than anything. And just because German automakers cheat on their tests, it doesn't mean that everyone else does too. And finally, be certain that those massive corporate giants take consumer trends very seriously, and they're already trailing just behind the bleeding edge on all those technologies. They just don't spend that much on PR because they don't need more capital.
zdrummond 9y ago
The article leads with "GERMAN carmakers have much in common with the self-confident roadhogs who favour their vehicles". That makes it hard to take seriously or treat as good journalism.

71 points by oska 9y ago

The German public and car industry is fighting tooth and nail against any change in drivetrain technology. The push to outlaw old diesel engines in city centers is met with cries about "deindustrialization". We also mostly drive stick here. I think the jury is still out if cleaner car technology will actually win or if we will keep living in poisoned cities. Maybe German car makers will come out ahead by focusing on strong, loud and polluting cars. I sure hope they won't.

adventured 9y ago
It will become uneconomical to stick to IC cars as the entire world shifts to electric over the next ~30 years. Germany's auto makers will disappear in that scenario, because they'll lose all the global markets. Just losing part of those markets will destroy their margins due to the change in economies of scale. Their only good bet is to aggressively adapt. I'm sure they will, even if they drag their feet initially. Toyota has put themselves in a similar running from behind scenario, because their leadership chose to put a lot of effort and money into hydrogen instead of the lithium-ion approach. I'd bet on them similarly eventually throwing immense resources into catching up.
vetinari 9y ago
> We also mostly drive stick here. During last years, there was a huge push to change that and sell as much as possible new cars with automatic transmission. For example, nowadays it is almost impossible to get a car with manual transmission, 4x4, and not an anaemic, preferably petrol engine (forget about atmospheric one). If you accept automatic, you can choose from almost all brands.
- TomMarius 9y ago
  This is true for premium brands only. The "normal" ones are still actively selling combinations of everything you've said including manual transmission. Petrol engine is not preferred by EU people, they prefer diesel; it's true that nowadays there isn't much of a choice if you want petrol, though.
  - vetinari 9y ago
    It is true for "normal" ones too. I was checking recently, and the cut-off seemed to be at 110kW (1.5TSI) for VW Group (Skoda, Seat) and 118kW for Mazda. Above that, only automatic.
    - TomMarius 9y ago
      I don't know any 'normal' (as in regular) people who would buy above that. Europeans are used to small cubatures, the average would be around 1.6 to 1.8 (and that's considered big). You can buy 2.0 TDi Skoda with manual (consider they have different offerings across Europe).
      - vetinari 9y ago
        Here, the 2.0 TDI with manual is the 110kW one, just like the 1.5 TSI one, also available with manual. If you want bigger engine, i.e. 2.0 TSI 132 kW or 2.0 TDI 140 kW, it's DSG only.
  - walshemj 9y ago
    That is for tax reasons, the same reason lng conversions where popular in Italy (where evading / reducing tax is a national sport). Btw this is a quote from my Italian driving instructor at the time
lima 9y ago
> The German public and car industry is fighting tooth and nail against any change in drivetrain technology. This is not true. The German car industry is heavily investing in electric cars. Source: friend is engineering manager for a major supplier
- adrianN 9y ago
  Ten years too late?
  - cornholio 9y ago
    Early enough to catch the transition to mainstream of the electric car and mass adoption. That is at least 10 years away.
- konschubert 9y ago
  That's good to hear! I'm glad to be proven wrong.
threeseed 9y ago
None of this is at all true to me. BMW was one of the first to come out with electric cars with the "i series". Audi is releasing 3 new electric drivetrains under the e-tron branding. Mercedes had a massive news release last month where they are building a global battery news to go with an upcoming global rollout of new electric cars: https://electrek.co/2018/01/29/mercedes-benz-electric-vehicle-production-global-battery-network/ https://electrek.co/2018/01/29/mercedes-benz-electric-vehicl... This idea that the top auto manufacturers are just sitting around waiting for their industry to be taken over by electric startups is just laughable.
- rsync 9y ago
  "BMW was one of the first to come out with electric cars with the "i series"." That was one car. A single model - the i3. The i8 does not count since it's a hybrid with a little lawnmower engine hidden inside. I am hopeful that things can change but what I see from BMW and (especially) Volvo is the same old press releases about a concept car that will be available three years from now. They just keep writing the same press releases but shifting the dates forward.

mcny 9y ago

If anyone here is in Germany, I'd like to ask you: what will it take for you to stop driving? Previously on hn: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16375534 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16375534

ItsMe000001 9y ago
After I moved back from the US to Germany after having lived and worked there for almost a decade I never got a car. I walk (that's the #1 mode of transport by far), I bike (#2), I use public transport (rarely). In the US I drove enough to last a lifetime, I spent way too much time of my life in cars. The worst of owning a car is that I have to spend so much time and energy on that... "thing". Where yo I park it? Is it clean? Does it need an inspection? Insurance? It's like owning a horse but without the benefits (of a living companion). I use the horse not because of the transport analogy but because it's big and requires lots of your time and resources too (food, insurance, medical expenses, housing it,...).
- vetinari 9y ago
  Frankly, none of the things you mentioned as a hurdle I see as such: Where to park it? In garage, obviously. Is it clean? Mostly yes, washing is a matter of 30 minutes. Does it need an inspection? Once in two years. Insurance? Just like another bill, you can pay it over Internet too. However: Do you live alone? If no, how do you do your shopping, for example? Do you have kids? If yes, how do you transport them?
  - foepys 9y ago
    > Where to park it? In garage, obviously. Most people in Germany don't have a garage. Apart from that: the other part of the question is "where do I park my car when I'm not at home?", which is about 50% of the time. Inner cities in Germany don't have giant parking spots but narrow streets with parallel parking on the street with parking fees.
    - vetinari 9y ago

Glawen 9y ago

Embedded sw automotive engineer here. The article suggest that the german industry may not cope with more computer centric vehicles. I think thats just laughable, it is them who introduced computer controlled engine (motronic) or invented ABS and ESP which are computer controlled brakes. Don't underestimate them in this field just because they are not using Python to develop their car. Their suppliers are leading the automotive industry, providing the best electronic and SW money can buy in a lot of car components. Ok they arrogantly ignored the hybrid and EVs and focused only on ICE, but I believe they will quickly catch up, just look at the bmw i3 for example. It is however true that the end of ICE will be a huge blow to their industry, with millions of people poised to lose their jobs. But that is the same for every country having a lot of carmakers. In my opinion the only field where they will not be able to catch up are autonomous vehicle, it is too abstract and revolutionary for them. It does not fit the german way of innovation based on small incremental innovative steps.

Theodores 9y ago
Here is a little feature on the way Bosch are fully prepared for the EV future: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHXi7Bvi_gE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHXi7Bvi_gE The components are good to go, it is up to the car manufacturers to start using this kit in their vehicles. So where are these car manufacturers? You can buy the whole drivetrain and electronics from Bosch, put it in a box with some seats in it and the job is done. Despite this relative ease it seems that we are not getting that out of the German auto manufacturers. It is lip service, a promise to have EV everything by year 202x as another 6.3 litre AMG G-Wagen with upgraded fluffy heated seats is launched. I think a lot will have to wait for the baby boomer generation to die off or get too old to be safe on the autobahns any more. I don't believe that future generations will be pleasuring themselves at the sound of V-whatever engines with noisy exhaust notes in the way that mid-life crisis types do today (as they 'sit in traffic' in their 'ultimate driving machines'). These things will go the way of steam engines on railways. We were once romantically attached to steam trains in much the same way that today's frustrated old people are attached to the fake exhaust notes on their Porsche/AMG/BMW/Audi cars. One good thing is that today's high end cars are not built to last. Sure all the corrosion proofing is better than it was in 1963 but the financing of cars and the fact that you can't fix them yourself means that they get scrapped soon after they make it onto the second hand market. Why pay $$$$ to get that gearbox replaced when you can just lease-hire a brand new car for $$$ a month? Bosch and others are doing great things in the pedal powered electric bicycle market. If you are a bicycle manufacturer then you just need to bolt the Bosch bits to a slightly modified bike and the job is a good one. The barrier to entry is really quite low, hence the profusion of electric bicycle models. It will be funny if the same happens with EV cars, with new market players from China coming along to make easy what VW et al. struggle to do. I do feel that the German auto industry is in better shape for the EV challenge than what is happening in Italy and France. For instance, the PSA group - Peugeot/Citroen - recently brought out some monster SUV under a new deluxe brand - 'DS' - and that has a big clunky diesel in it, not some hybrid or EV. They are playing catch up with the German brands, trying to go high end, but you know that these stillborn dinosaurs are never going to be seen on the roads. PSA also got burdened with the GM Opel/Vauxhall relics. Meanwhile in Italy the Fiat group burdened themselves with all of that Chrysler legacy cruft. So at least the German auto industry is going forward.

neonate 9y ago

https://outline.com/325zSr https://outline.com/325zSr

crb002 9y ago

I was impressed by the user interface of the Audi Q5, while at the same time horrified of the the attack surface that goes far beyond the Jeep hack. Germans, especially Audi, need to hardware condom media system writes to the CAN bus and cordon off sides of the driver dash into separate screens the media system can't spoof writes onto.

John_KZ 9y ago

The article assumes the following as "truths": * There is a real anti-diesel sentiment, and diesel phasing out will happen * Electric vehicles are an upcoming reality * Driverless vehicles are desirable and will dominate the market And finally, * The German auto industry is unprepared to deal with these facts Honestly I completely disagree on all 4 points. Electric vehicles are and will remain very expensive and inconvenient for a while. Their post-subsidy prices make clear that they constitute tax-funded toys for the rich. Autonomous/Driverless vehicles are also a novelty that we'll pay with a lot of blood. It's clear that we'll need at least 1-2 decades to reach a point where you can place reasonable trust to such a system for your daily commute. As for the diesel problem, there is a chance that some environmentalist lobby will eventually cause diesel cars for personal use to be phased out, but right now it's more of a social media meme than anything. And just because German automakers cheat on their tests, it doesn't mean that everyone else does too. And finally, be certain that those massive corporate giants take consumer trends very seriously, and they're already trailing just behind the bleeding edge on all those technologies. They just don't spend that much on PR because they don't need more capital.

zdrummond 9y ago

The article leads with "GERMAN carmakers have much in common with the self-confident roadhogs who favour their vehicles". That makes it hard to take seriously or treat as good journalism.