4 ms·

The joke's on Russia. American anti-missile defences couldn't stop their old missiles anyway!

by gaius 9y ago

adventured 9y ago
It's baffling why either Russia or China would be concerned about US efforts around missile defense. There's no scenario in the next 20 years where any nation can stop 50 or 100 incoming nukes. I've always assumed it's mostly a propaganda battle, as Russia can't be that stupid. They can't afford to spend what the US can to develop missile defenses over the coming decades, so they want to reassure their people that it's not a problem regardless.
- blackrock 9y ago
  Have you really thought this through? Did you realize that China is still in a state of civil war with Taiwan? The two had a civil war after WW2. The Taiwan side lost the mainland, and fled to Taiwan. Normally, when you lose a civil war, you don't create a new government. Otherwise, when the United States had their own civil war, then the southern states would have created the Confederate States of America, and slavery would still be alive and legal today. Do you agree with this premise? Taiwan is very strategically important to China. But, the United States is now using Taiwan to contain China. And they are using all the excuses like democracy and all that, but it's easy to see through the propaganda. Otherwise, why isn't Saudi Arabia a democracy by now? If you think through all the angles, then you might actually realize the insane rationality behind China's motives. That said, the United States is not China's enemy. But with the way geopolitics plays out, the United States is now firmly committed to securing Taiwan. Thus, both nations are now going to head into conflict. The thing is, any military conflict between the United States and China, will turn nuclear. Once those missiles start flying, then sell your stocks, because the world is going to burn down. This is a pretty grim analysis, so I hope it never happens.
  - gaius 9y ago
    Well it is not just Taiwan, China also has a beef with Japan, which the US is committed to defending too.
  - megaman22 9y ago
    The one china policy is retarded. One would hope that the US government would stand with a long-time ally above passing pressure from an authoritarian dictatorship.
- rocqua 9y ago
  If you are going to strike first, you really care about taking out as much counter strike possibilities. If 10% of your target's arsenal get's to retaliate because of missile defense systems, that is terrible for the first-striker. Even if you don't want to strike first, there is still a great advantage to being able to do it better. Especially if your adversary knows about your capabilities but not your intentions. See for example north-Korea wanting nuclear weapons. Something similar might have played a role for Pakistan. Being a nuclear power gets you seats at certain tables. Being a more dangerous nuclear power gets you a better seat. This strategy has the weak point of enticing preventative measures, but it is a strategy at least.
- rhino369 9y ago
  US may have nearly 50 ground based interceptors now. How well they work against chinese ICBMs is anyone's guess. But if you have a design and manufacturing process taht works, it wouldn't take long to churn out 500. Even 50 is a serious threat to China. If the US and China suddenly spiral into major direct war, China is vulnerable to a US first strike. A first strike against their ICBMs (but not cities) that is 50% successful would leave China with a fairly small second strike capability. Leaving China with the choice of trying to nuke the biggest 30 cities in America, knowing the US might shoot down half, or holding them in reserve. And if the try to nuke US cities the US would probably retaliate with 2,000 weapons.
  - madez 9y ago
    This is wildly unrealistic speculation. If any country nuclearly bombed any other country, it better be prepared to face the rest of the world for it.
- credit_guy 9y ago
  I have just such a scenario for you. Laser weapons deployed on a SpaceX BFR. The anti-missile Boeing-747 based laser weapon was cancelled by Robert Gates in 2012 [1] because it had limited range (about 60 miles). Put the same weapon in vacuum though, and the range extends potentially to thousands of miles. A single laser like that could potentially zap dozens of incoming ICBMs. Make these nukes fly in the lower part of the atmosphere though, and the laser won't be able to reach them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1
- hjrnunes 9y ago
  They contend the interceptor missiles can be quickly re-purposed to deliver nuclear warheads. EDIT: or the missile installations, I don't remember exactly. I don't have a link for you, but I remember Putin saying this in the Stone interviews.
Kenji 9y ago
Correct and level-headed response.

The joke's on Russia. American anti-missile defences couldn't stop their old missiles anyway!

by gaius 9y ago

The joke's on Russia. American anti-missile defences couldn't stop their old missiles anyway!

It's baffling why either Russia or China would be concerned about US efforts around missile defense. There's no scenario in the next 20 years where any nation can stop 50 or 100 incoming nukes. I've always assumed it's mostly a propaganda battle, as Russia can't be that stupid. They can't afford to spend what the US can to develop missile defenses over the coming decades, so they want to reassure their people that it's not a problem regardless.

blackrock 9y ago
Have you really thought this through? Did you realize that China is still in a state of civil war with Taiwan? The two had a civil war after WW2. The Taiwan side lost the mainland, and fled to Taiwan. Normally, when you lose a civil war, you don't create a new government. Otherwise, when the United States had their own civil war, then the southern states would have created the Confederate States of America, and slavery would still be alive and legal today. Do you agree with this premise? Taiwan is very strategically important to China. But, the United States is now using Taiwan to contain China. And they are using all the excuses like democracy and all that, but it's easy to see through the propaganda. Otherwise, why isn't Saudi Arabia a democracy by now? If you think through all the angles, then you might actually realize the insane rationality behind China's motives. That said, the United States is not China's enemy. But with the way geopolitics plays out, the United States is now firmly committed to securing Taiwan. Thus, both nations are now going to head into conflict. The thing is, any military conflict between the United States and China, will turn nuclear. Once those missiles start flying, then sell your stocks, because the world is going to burn down. This is a pretty grim analysis, so I hope it never happens.
- gaius 9y ago
  Well it is not just Taiwan, China also has a beef with Japan, which the US is committed to defending too.
- megaman22 9y ago
  The one china policy is retarded. One would hope that the US government would stand with a long-time ally above passing pressure from an authoritarian dictatorship.
rocqua 9y ago
If you are going to strike first, you really care about taking out as much counter strike possibilities. If 10% of your target's arsenal get's to retaliate because of missile defense systems, that is terrible for the first-striker. Even if you don't want to strike first, there is still a great advantage to being able to do it better. Especially if your adversary knows about your capabilities but not your intentions. See for example north-Korea wanting nuclear weapons. Something similar might have played a role for Pakistan. Being a nuclear power gets you seats at certain tables. Being a more dangerous nuclear power gets you a better seat. This strategy has the weak point of enticing preventative measures, but it is a strategy at least.
rhino369 9y ago
US may have nearly 50 ground based interceptors now. How well they work against chinese ICBMs is anyone's guess. But if you have a design and manufacturing process taht works, it wouldn't take long to churn out 500. Even 50 is a serious threat to China. If the US and China suddenly spiral into major direct war, China is vulnerable to a US first strike. A first strike against their ICBMs (but not cities) that is 50% successful would leave China with a fairly small second strike capability. Leaving China with the choice of trying to nuke the biggest 30 cities in America, knowing the US might shoot down half, or holding them in reserve. And if the try to nuke US cities the US would probably retaliate with 2,000 weapons.
- madez 9y ago
  This is wildly unrealistic speculation. If any country nuclearly bombed any other country, it better be prepared to face the rest of the world for it.
credit_guy 9y ago
I have just such a scenario for you. Laser weapons deployed on a SpaceX BFR. The anti-missile Boeing-747 based laser weapon was cancelled by Robert Gates in 2012 [1] because it had limited range (about 60 miles). Put the same weapon in vacuum though, and the range extends potentially to thousands of miles. A single laser like that could potentially zap dozens of incoming ICBMs. Make these nukes fly in the lower part of the atmosphere though, and the laser won't be able to reach them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1
hjrnunes 9y ago
They contend the interceptor missiles can be quickly re-purposed to deliver nuclear warheads. EDIT: or the missile installations, I don't remember exactly. I don't have a link for you, but I remember Putin saying this in the Stone interviews.

Kenji 9y ago

Correct and level-headed response.