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“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes Looks like another case of this applying. Though it's sad, I am hearte

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes Looks like another case of this applying. Though it's sad, I am heartened to know that giants can succumb to this too. Lord knows it's hit me enough.

zombieprocesses 9y ago
> “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes Or it can stay irrational as long as it has a wealthier billionaire backing it. People forget that HLF was headed for collapse until Icahn and a few other billionaires backstopped HLF. There is a reason why Ackman is worth $1 billion and Icahn is worth $16 billion.
- marojejian 9y ago
  Interesting. Why did Icahn and the other deep pockets care to fight this battle?
  - loeg 9y ago
    It's an investment they think they'll see return on, and apparently don't have moral compunctions about.
  - marojejian 9y ago
    Hmm, also seems like there is a big personal feud there: http://fortune.com/carl-icahn-bill-ackman-feud/ http://fortune.com/carl-icahn-bill-ackman-feud/ Seems a little game of thrones-y. Sometimes I wonder how much of our rational "systems" are mere fronts for powerful people no different from the chieftains of pre-history. Sigh.
  - AlexCoventry 9y ago
    They doubled their money in five years. The potential for that was probably sufficient reason for them.
stefan_ 9y ago
Why is it god given inevitable that this is somehow a bad investment? Plenty of companies make their money deceiving the poor or defrauding their customers, lots of the consulting joints come to mind..
- ada1981 9y ago
  This is the second comment I've seen about consulting shops being scams. Can you say more about your experience with this?
- pbhjpbhj 9y ago
  Surely it's a bad investment for anyone who has morals. People may assume that others generally aren't evil and so will not support obvious (to them) scams.
opo 9y ago
>“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes There isn't much evidence that was said by Keynes: >...In conclusion, this saying appeared in print by the 1990s and was closely associated with the financial analyst A. Gary Shilling. Based on current evidence it is possible that Shilling crafted of this apothegm. The journalist Jason Zweig believes he heard the phrase earlier and thinks it was in use by the late 1980s. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/ (I don't mean to derail your comment as I agree with the rest of it - just don't like to see misattributed quotes.)
- marojejian 9y ago
  Thanks opo! I tried to research the attribution a bit, but clearly fell short. I was pretty surprised that Keynes would be able to come up with that. I'll try to edit my comment appropriately
  - marojejian 9y ago
    Whoops, too late to edit I guess.

zombieprocesses 9y ago

> “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes Or it can stay irrational as long as it has a wealthier billionaire backing it. People forget that HLF was headed for collapse until Icahn and a few other billionaires backstopped HLF. There is a reason why Ackman is worth $1 billion and Icahn is worth $16 billion.

marojejian 9y ago
Interesting. Why did Icahn and the other deep pockets care to fight this battle?
- loeg 9y ago
  It's an investment they think they'll see return on, and apparently don't have moral compunctions about.
- marojejian 9y ago
  Hmm, also seems like there is a big personal feud there: http://fortune.com/carl-icahn-bill-ackman-feud/ http://fortune.com/carl-icahn-bill-ackman-feud/ Seems a little game of thrones-y. Sometimes I wonder how much of our rational "systems" are mere fronts for powerful people no different from the chieftains of pre-history. Sigh.
- AlexCoventry 9y ago
  They doubled their money in five years. The potential for that was probably sufficient reason for them.

stefan_ 9y ago

Why is it god given inevitable that this is somehow a bad investment? Plenty of companies make their money deceiving the poor or defrauding their customers, lots of the consulting joints come to mind..

ada1981 9y ago
This is the second comment I've seen about consulting shops being scams. Can you say more about your experience with this?
pbhjpbhj 9y ago
Surely it's a bad investment for anyone who has morals. People may assume that others generally aren't evil and so will not support obvious (to them) scams.

opo 9y ago

>“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes There isn't much evidence that was said by Keynes: >...In conclusion, this saying appeared in print by the 1990s and was closely associated with the financial analyst A. Gary Shilling. Based on current evidence it is possible that Shilling crafted of this apothegm. The journalist Jason Zweig believes he heard the phrase earlier and thinks it was in use by the late 1980s. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/ (I don't mean to derail your comment as I agree with the rest of it - just don't like to see misattributed quotes.)

marojejian 9y ago
Thanks opo! I tried to research the attribution a bit, but clearly fell short. I was pretty surprised that Keynes would be able to come up with that. I'll try to edit my comment appropriately
- marojejian 9y ago
  Whoops, too late to edit I guess.