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Economy will crash in the next 5 years either way with mass replacement of people by AI (call centers, taxi drivers, truck drivers, ...). Edit: Plus German car

Economy will crash in the next 5 years either way with mass replacement of people by AI (call centers, taxi drivers, truck drivers, ...). Edit: Plus German car industry will crash either way because most people work not in building cars, but motors, electronics, transmission etc. which are mostly redundant with electric cars.

tyree731 9y ago
This isn't sound logic. "The economy is going to crash because of reason X, so it's fine to make it crash worse because of reason Y".
- TheLostOne 9y ago
  No the argument is: A. No cars, clean air! B. Don't do this, economy will crash A. Doesn't scare me, economy will crash either way, keeping cars will not prevent a crash.
Cthulhu_ 9y ago
Just like it did during the industrial revolution with mass replacement of people by machines.
- TheLostOne 9y ago
  No, during the industrial revolution jobs were mostly created. This was at the same time the agricultural sector lost most jobs. With industry 2.0 and people being replaced, these moved into the service industry. Now the service industry is replaced with no where to go.
- pixl97 9y ago
  Quite a few Luddites starved during those times.
- kilotaras 9y ago
  One can derive argument for both sides from industrial revolution (not many horses working around), but generalizing from one datapoint isn't the most intellectually robust way to analyze the issue.
- s73v3r_ 9y ago
  Most of the farmers were able to get jobs in factories, with little downtime or retraining necessary. What are today's factory workers going to do that's comparable? Remember, they still have rent to pay, food to buy, families to support.
govg 9y ago
AI is far from solving these problems to the extent of being deployed world wide.
- TheLostOne 9y ago
  No it's five years. As the internet changed everything in 10 years, mobile internet changed everything in 5 years. Change will come rapidly not slow. Also if you're a lawyer "An AI just beat top lawyers at their own game" https://mashable.com/2018/02/26/ai-beats-humans-at-contracts/ https://mashable.com/2018/02/26/ai-beats-humans-at-contracts...
  - IshKebab 9y ago
    That lawyer thing is like saying "a calculator just beat top mathematicians at their own arithmetic" and expecting it to generate replace maths professors within 5 years. AI is great but it's hilarious to think much will have changed in 5 years. Have a look at the results from the Stanford Question Answering Database if you want to see how far there is still to go.
    - TheLostOne 9y ago
      90% of lawyers do are not top notch defence lawyers. Most of lawyers work in companies and do NDA work.
      - jacquesm 9y ago
        This comment does not parse, and the second part of it makes very little sense. NDA -> Non Disclosure Agreement, that's a fairly standard legal device which definitely does not employ the majority of lawyers in corporations.
Svip 9y ago
50 years, you mean? The technology may be moving fast, but the social/political/financial changes won't.
igravious 9y ago
I'll take either bet. €1000 says the German economy will not crash in the next 5 years due to the mass replacement of people by AI. Another €1000 says that the transition to electric vehicles will not crash the German vehicle industry. (I've changed your wording from cars to vehicles because I do not see the point of the needless restriction.) Let's say as well if the same person wins both bets they get a bonus €1000. Sound reasonable and good to you? I mean you do believe in what you're saying, yes? What's your email address so that I can mail you the contract?
- TheLostOne 9y ago
  You have a gambling problem? HN is surely not the right place for seeking help, they [1] will help [1] https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/national-helpline-1-800-522-4700/ https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/national-helpline...
  - igravious 9y ago
    I never gamble. Effectively what I'm saying is: polite way–"I'm so confident you're spouting rubbish that I'm will to risk €3000 of my money to prove you wrong even though I never gamble." less polite way–"Put up or shut up." Also I'm from a neighbouring (check out how I spell neighbour for a clue!) EU country so a link to a US gambling site is no use to me. ;-)
    - TheLostOne 9y ago
      I never gamble. I know next time is black.
      - jacquesm 9y ago
        In that case no sweat, take that bet, it is money in your pocket.

tyree731 9y ago

This isn't sound logic. "The economy is going to crash because of reason X, so it's fine to make it crash worse because of reason Y".

TheLostOne 9y ago
No the argument is: A. No cars, clean air! B. Don't do this, economy will crash A. Doesn't scare me, economy will crash either way, keeping cars will not prevent a crash.

Cthulhu_ 9y ago

Just like it did during the industrial revolution with mass replacement of people by machines.

TheLostOne 9y ago
No, during the industrial revolution jobs were mostly created. This was at the same time the agricultural sector lost most jobs. With industry 2.0 and people being replaced, these moved into the service industry. Now the service industry is replaced with no where to go.
pixl97 9y ago
Quite a few Luddites starved during those times.
kilotaras 9y ago
One can derive argument for both sides from industrial revolution (not many horses working around), but generalizing from one datapoint isn't the most intellectually robust way to analyze the issue.
s73v3r_ 9y ago
Most of the farmers were able to get jobs in factories, with little downtime or retraining necessary. What are today's factory workers going to do that's comparable? Remember, they still have rent to pay, food to buy, families to support.

govg 9y ago

AI is far from solving these problems to the extent of being deployed world wide.

TheLostOne 9y ago
No it's five years. As the internet changed everything in 10 years, mobile internet changed everything in 5 years. Change will come rapidly not slow. Also if you're a lawyer "An AI just beat top lawyers at their own game" https://mashable.com/2018/02/26/ai-beats-humans-at-contracts/ https://mashable.com/2018/02/26/ai-beats-humans-at-contracts...
- IshKebab 9y ago
  That lawyer thing is like saying "a calculator just beat top mathematicians at their own arithmetic" and expecting it to generate replace maths professors within 5 years. AI is great but it's hilarious to think much will have changed in 5 years. Have a look at the results from the Stanford Question Answering Database if you want to see how far there is still to go.
  - TheLostOne 9y ago
    90% of lawyers do are not top notch defence lawyers. Most of lawyers work in companies and do NDA work.
    - jacquesm 9y ago
      This comment does not parse, and the second part of it makes very little sense. NDA -> Non Disclosure Agreement, that's a fairly standard legal device which definitely does not employ the majority of lawyers in corporations.

Svip 9y ago

50 years, you mean? The technology may be moving fast, but the social/political/financial changes won't.

igravious 9y ago

I'll take either bet. €1000 says the German economy will not crash in the next 5 years due to the mass replacement of people by AI. Another €1000 says that the transition to electric vehicles will not crash the German vehicle industry. (I've changed your wording from cars to vehicles because I do not see the point of the needless restriction.) Let's say as well if the same person wins both bets they get a bonus €1000. Sound reasonable and good to you? I mean you do believe in what you're saying, yes? What's your email address so that I can mail you the contract?

TheLostOne 9y ago
You have a gambling problem? HN is surely not the right place for seeking help, they [1] will help [1] https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/national-helpline-1-800-522-4700/ https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/national-helpline...
- igravious 9y ago
  I never gamble. Effectively what I'm saying is: polite way–"I'm so confident you're spouting rubbish that I'm will to risk €3000 of my money to prove you wrong even though I never gamble." less polite way–"Put up or shut up." Also I'm from a neighbouring (check out how I spell neighbour for a clue!) EU country so a link to a US gambling site is no use to me. ;-)
  - TheLostOne 9y ago
    I never gamble. I know next time is black.
    - jacquesm 9y ago
      In that case no sweat, take that bet, it is money in your pocket.