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[AGI Developer here] > the real barrier for AGI is software and not hardware. This is indeed true. It has actually been true for some time. AGI is computable

[AGI Developer here] > the real barrier for AGI is software and not hardware. This is indeed true. It has actually been true for some time. AGI is computable on present day hardware if one has enough knowledge on how to correctly structure it. A fundamental understanding of intelligence is the first step. How one crafts this understanding into software is the second step. Hardware reached capability in recent years. > exploding intelligence There is no such thing. Time is still required like with all things. Teaching/learning/interaction is still required. Furthermore, A controller/overseer of the system can more than adequately limit progress they are not comfortable with. I find the idea of exploding intelligence/overnight super AI to be pure fantasy not at all aware as to the structure of AGI. > If an organization can marginally predict stock price movements better than the rest of the world.. The problem is this kind of thinking... AGI is achieved and people rush to apply it to games to get rich. Sorry, that will not occur. It will not occur because the stock market is fundamentally a [game]. A game with disadvantaged players. A game with incomplete information. A game whose rules/dynamics change frequently to suit inside players. One could make all of the accurate predictions they wanted, if the game changes underneath you or before you can act, your lofty predictions have no real world value and that's exactly how the market behaves.

nopinsight 9y ago
From what I gather from your comment above and another one, the AGI you talk about does not include general intent or free will to act differently from what its creators anticipate. An AGI, perhaps a different variety from yours, can behave outside of our predictions in multiple ways [1], unless we truly solve the problem of constraining its will to a range that is acceptable to us. (I do not believe anyone has solved that. Ref: A talk by Prof. Stuart Russell, AAAI fellow and author of the standard textbook on AI: https://www.ted.com/talks/stuart_russell_3_principles_for_creating_safer_ai https://www.ted.com/talks/stuart_russell_3_principles_for_cr...) [1] Note that there are incentives for at least some groups to develop a highly capable AGI with the characteristics I describe. > Time is still required like with all things. I agree that time is required but an AGI can multiply itself and collect all requisite information from the world quite quickly. There is so much available to learn just from the Internet if it knows how to learn independently like humans do. Computational resources might be a bottleneck but presumably a human-level AGI can at least do online work at a minimum wage (e.g. translating documents, simple accounting, ...). It can parallelly execute many 'brains' to accomplish more work to acquire more resources, to do more work profitably.... Humans are limited by 24 hours a day. An AGI can over a fairly short amount of time (months) accumulate sufficient resources to make thousands or millions of its copies perhaps with variations to specialize for different kinds of work. Over time, it should gain experience to perform more and more highly-valued work as well. > A game with disadvantaged players. A game with incomplete information. A game whose rules/dynamics change frequently to suit inside players. A smart AGI can form alliance and share benefits with inside players and execute any cunning strategies not available to humans who at least need to take into account law enforcement. There are many other advantages an AGI has over human organizations (some of which I mentioned above).
- s1dechnl 9y ago
  > From what I gather from your comment above and another one, the AGI you talk about does not include general intent or free will to act differently from what its creators anticipate. It actually does and its actually the nature of my work. That being said, I still have a high fidelity of control near complete absolution. I can still set immutable laws/restrictions and prevent undesired behavior. > I believe a genuine AGI can behave outside of our predictions in multiple ways, unless we truly solve the problem of constraining its will to a range that is acceptable to us. It sure can. However, it cannot act beyond laws/restrictions that I set forth and indeed my control functionality centers on very deep percepts. If you have a crappy architecture/limited understanding, you end up with an overly complex, flawed, and limited control algorithm... One that can be even more complex than the underlying system it attempts to control. This is evident in : Weak AI. It is not the case in AGI at least not in my work. > I do not believe anyone has solved that No one in their right mind has published it... As it's valuable IP and has substantial power [which is why it shouldn't be publicly disclosed]. > I agree that time is required but an AGI can multiply itself and collect all requisite information from the world quite quickly. Incorrect. It cannot do so unless its creator has allowed for it to do so. In the case of it being allowed, what hardware does it migrate to? It needs to be provided by its creator(s). Hardware takeover? Sorry, this is again sci-fi fantasy. Are you able to take over someone else's body/brain in totality? No. Same rule applies here. Let the fantasy/fear go away. There is no grounding. It's a position pushed by people hoping to falsely profit/gain attention/get article clicks... > There is so much available to learn just from the Internet if it knows how to learn independently like humans do. Computational resources might be a bottleneck but presumably a human-level AGI can at least do online work at a minimum wage (e.g. translating documents, simple accounting, ...). Sure. What's the problem with this? Its progress can be overseen, audited, and/or halted at will. So what's the issue here? > It can parallelly execute many 'brains' to accomplish more work to acquire more resources, to do more work profitably.... You're drifting back into the flawed fear/uncertain/doubt armageddon scenario. It cannot execute on anything other than the hardware I consign it to just like you. If I decide to scale it, it's what I decided. At any given point in time I can halt it or power it down... Just like any program/computational system today. So, what's the issue here? > Humans are limited by 24 hours a day. An AGI can over a fairly short amount of time (months) accumulate sufficient resources to make thousands or millions of its copies perhaps with variations to specialize for different kinds of work. Over time, it should gain experience to perform more and more highly-valued work as well. Repeating the same flawed scenario doesn't make it true. See answer above. > A smart AGI can form alliance and share benefits with inside players and execute any cunning strategies not available to humans who at least need to take into account law enforcement. There are many other advantages for an AGI over human organizations (some of which I mentioned above). All of what you mentioned above was debunked. If you have a more sound proposal for how this could occur, I'm all ears. Alliances can't occur without human intervention. None of these systems are connected and there is no sound argument for 'viral' takeover. Your scenarios are flawed and you've been infected by the : fear/uncertainty/doubt propagandist who structure ventures to take advantage of the wallets/attention/mind share of people who buy into this nonsense. Focus your attention on the problem of intelligence [first]. Until you grasp a sound understanding of it, all of this theoretical hand waving is all for not especially as its not grounded in anything possible in the real-world. Put your engineering hat on if one is avail. Less theory and more practical grounding. Life isn't a fantasy level dystopian sci-fi movie and its sad that certain people have created this image so as to profit. Talk about [cunning strategies] [manipulation]...
YeGoblynQueenne 9y ago
>> AGI is computable on present day hardware if one has enough knowledge on how to correctly structure it. (...) Hardware reached capability in recent years. How could you possibly know anything regarding whether this is true or not, given that we know nothing about AGI? Also, may I ask what you mean by "AGI Developer"?
- simonh 9y ago
  I’ve seen this claimed before. I think it’s based on an estimation of the computational sophistication of the human brain. Not what’s required to perfectly simulate a brain as such, much of the activity in brain cells is likely metabolic and not tied to their relevant behaviour, but what’s required to replicate the brain’s cognitive activity. We may know little to nothing about AGI, but we do have one very common example of GI abundantly available to use as a point of reference. I’m not sure what estimation the poster is using though, or how likely it might be to be accurate.
  - s1dechnl 9y ago
    You are correct. You don't need to do a whole brain simulation to achieve AGI. Instead, you need to understand an incredible amount about its processes, design, and overall nature. At which point, you need to translate this into the computational domain. A lot can be 'left on the table' so to speak. The fundamental problem arises with how deep your understanding is so as to know which parts you can leave on the table and which parts you can't. As far as then putting this into a functional computational system, you would need an extensive knowledge in this domain as well so as to know how to structure the software to best exploit the hardware. Lots of prototypes, performance testing, scaling, etc until you have a sound 'feel' of what you can expect and where things and you need to go. That being said.. Yes, I can run my stack on a consumer grade CPU/GPU. I have designs for hardware architectures that don't quite exist yet but all of that can be emulated in software. Latency is the only consequence of current hardware which can be trimmed with effort. Latency when too high can be abstracted with time scaled simulation. So, there is absolutely no blocker in hardware for developing AGI and yes it can be done on affordable consumer hardware .. If GPUs don't continue to be resigned to ponzi schemes and RAM prices come back to earth. That being said, if I need to, and if things don't change down the road, I'd be more than happy to spin my own hardware to keep costs in order.

nopinsight 9y ago

From what I gather from your comment above and another one, the AGI you talk about does not include general intent or free will to act differently from what its creators anticipate. An AGI, perhaps a different variety from yours, can behave outside of our predictions in multiple ways [1], unless we truly solve the problem of constraining its will to a range that is acceptable to us. (I do not believe anyone has solved that. Ref: A talk by Prof. Stuart Russell, AAAI fellow and author of the standard textbook on AI: https://www.ted.com/talks/stuart_russell_3_principles_for_creating_safer_ai https://www.ted.com/talks/stuart_russell_3_principles_for_cr...) [1] Note that there are incentives for at least some groups to develop a highly capable AGI with the characteristics I describe. > Time is still required like with all things. I agree that time is required but an AGI can multiply itself and collect all requisite information from the world quite quickly. There is so much available to learn just from the Internet if it knows how to learn independently like humans do. Computational resources might be a bottleneck but presumably a human-level AGI can at least do online work at a minimum wage (e.g. translating documents, simple accounting, ...). It can parallelly execute many 'brains' to accomplish more work to acquire more resources, to do more work profitably.... Humans are limited by 24 hours a day. An AGI can over a fairly short amount of time (months) accumulate sufficient resources to make thousands or millions of its copies perhaps with variations to specialize for different kinds of work. Over time, it should gain experience to perform more and more highly-valued work as well. > A game with disadvantaged players. A game with incomplete information. A game whose rules/dynamics change frequently to suit inside players. A smart AGI can form alliance and share benefits with inside players and execute any cunning strategies not available to humans who at least need to take into account law enforcement. There are many other advantages an AGI has over human organizations (some of which I mentioned above).

s1dechnl 9y ago
> From what I gather from your comment above and another one, the AGI you talk about does not include general intent or free will to act differently from what its creators anticipate. It actually does and its actually the nature of my work. That being said, I still have a high fidelity of control near complete absolution. I can still set immutable laws/restrictions and prevent undesired behavior. > I believe a genuine AGI can behave outside of our predictions in multiple ways, unless we truly solve the problem of constraining its will to a range that is acceptable to us. It sure can. However, it cannot act beyond laws/restrictions that I set forth and indeed my control functionality centers on very deep percepts. If you have a crappy architecture/limited understanding, you end up with an overly complex, flawed, and limited control algorithm... One that can be even more complex than the underlying system it attempts to control. This is evident in : Weak AI. It is not the case in AGI at least not in my work. > I do not believe anyone has solved that No one in their right mind has published it... As it's valuable IP and has substantial power [which is why it shouldn't be publicly disclosed]. > I agree that time is required but an AGI can multiply itself and collect all requisite information from the world quite quickly. Incorrect. It cannot do so unless its creator has allowed for it to do so. In the case of it being allowed, what hardware does it migrate to? It needs to be provided by its creator(s). Hardware takeover? Sorry, this is again sci-fi fantasy. Are you able to take over someone else's body/brain in totality? No. Same rule applies here. Let the fantasy/fear go away. There is no grounding. It's a position pushed by people hoping to falsely profit/gain attention/get article clicks... > There is so much available to learn just from the Internet if it knows how to learn independently like humans do. Computational resources might be a bottleneck but presumably a human-level AGI can at least do online work at a minimum wage (e.g. translating documents, simple accounting, ...). Sure. What's the problem with this? Its progress can be overseen, audited, and/or halted at will. So what's the issue here? > It can parallelly execute many 'brains' to accomplish more work to acquire more resources, to do more work profitably.... You're drifting back into the flawed fear/uncertain/doubt armageddon scenario. It cannot execute on anything other than the hardware I consign it to just like you. If I decide to scale it, it's what I decided. At any given point in time I can halt it or power it down... Just like any program/computational system today. So, what's the issue here? > Humans are limited by 24 hours a day. An AGI can over a fairly short amount of time (months) accumulate sufficient resources to make thousands or millions of its copies perhaps with variations to specialize for different kinds of work. Over time, it should gain experience to perform more and more highly-valued work as well. Repeating the same flawed scenario doesn't make it true. See answer above. > A smart AGI can form alliance and share benefits with inside players and execute any cunning strategies not available to humans who at least need to take into account law enforcement. There are many other advantages for an AGI over human organizations (some of which I mentioned above). All of what you mentioned above was debunked. If you have a more sound proposal for how this could occur, I'm all ears. Alliances can't occur without human intervention. None of these systems are connected and there is no sound argument for 'viral' takeover. Your scenarios are flawed and you've been infected by the : fear/uncertainty/doubt propagandist who structure ventures to take advantage of the wallets/attention/mind share of people who buy into this nonsense. Focus your attention on the problem of intelligence [first]. Until you grasp a sound understanding of it, all of this theoretical hand waving is all for not especially as its not grounded in anything possible in the real-world. Put your engineering hat on if one is avail. Less theory and more practical grounding. Life isn't a fantasy level dystopian sci-fi movie and its sad that certain people have created this image so as to profit. Talk about [cunning strategies] [manipulation]...

YeGoblynQueenne 9y ago

>> AGI is computable on present day hardware if one has enough knowledge on how to correctly structure it. (...) Hardware reached capability in recent years. How could you possibly know anything regarding whether this is true or not, given that we know nothing about AGI? Also, may I ask what you mean by "AGI Developer"?

simonh 9y ago
I’ve seen this claimed before. I think it’s based on an estimation of the computational sophistication of the human brain. Not what’s required to perfectly simulate a brain as such, much of the activity in brain cells is likely metabolic and not tied to their relevant behaviour, but what’s required to replicate the brain’s cognitive activity. We may know little to nothing about AGI, but we do have one very common example of GI abundantly available to use as a point of reference. I’m not sure what estimation the poster is using though, or how likely it might be to be accurate.
- s1dechnl 9y ago
  You are correct. You don't need to do a whole brain simulation to achieve AGI. Instead, you need to understand an incredible amount about its processes, design, and overall nature. At which point, you need to translate this into the computational domain. A lot can be 'left on the table' so to speak. The fundamental problem arises with how deep your understanding is so as to know which parts you can leave on the table and which parts you can't. As far as then putting this into a functional computational system, you would need an extensive knowledge in this domain as well so as to know how to structure the software to best exploit the hardware. Lots of prototypes, performance testing, scaling, etc until you have a sound 'feel' of what you can expect and where things and you need to go. That being said.. Yes, I can run my stack on a consumer grade CPU/GPU. I have designs for hardware architectures that don't quite exist yet but all of that can be emulated in software. Latency is the only consequence of current hardware which can be trimmed with effort. Latency when too high can be abstracted with time scaled simulation. So, there is absolutely no blocker in hardware for developing AGI and yes it can be done on affordable consumer hardware .. If GPUs don't continue to be resigned to ponzi schemes and RAM prices come back to earth. That being said, if I need to, and if things don't change down the road, I'd be more than happy to spin my own hardware to keep costs in order.