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Probably both. Everyone, including and especially China's own citizens, should be very afraid of the current regime and its path towards a surveillance state. I

Probably both. Everyone, including and especially China's own citizens, should be very afraid of the current regime and its path towards a surveillance state. I don't think anyone in this thread actually expects China to fall within a few years, but it isn't unjustified to believe that this will be the downfall of China, and that we should be very worried about an upcoming war.

greggarious 9y ago
>it isn't unjustified to believe that this will be the downfall of China, and that we should be very worried about an upcoming war. Why - will such a civil war spill beyond China's borders?
- CogitoCogito 9y ago
  Personally I'm afraid it could result in China attempting an invasion of Taiwan. This could lead to war between the US (as well as other countries) and China.
  - dpark 9y ago
    I doubt the US would actually go to war with China for an invasion of Taiwan. We happily gave Taiwan’s UN seat to China to establish relations and no longer have official relations with Taiwan at all. I don’t think we’d sacrifice the relationship with our largest trading partner over Taiwan. Nor do I think our politicians would sign up for a war against China except in the face of an existential threat.
    - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
      I doubt the US would not actually go to war with China over an invasion of Taiwan. At the very least, there would be huge consequences in the very quick remilitarization of Japan and the start of a new cold war.
      - dpark 9y ago
        Remember that time the US went to war with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine? An invasion of Taiwan would likely garner a similar response. Heightened tensions, international sanctions that don’t seem to do much, and yes, increased military presence in nearby allies. Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.
        CogitoCogito 9y ago
        I don't think that the two are really that comparable. The US is much better equipped to help thwart a Chinese invasion of Taiwan than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion would be very far from an easy operation or even a sure win. And even ignoring America's historical support of Taiwan against China, if China were to successfully invade Taiwan, it would change the security situation of the area to such a degree that even military brass would be vary wary to not take a stand. > Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable. I'm not sure why you think this is the case. If the US were to try to invade China, then yeah it would basically be unwinnable. But why would the US do that? They would only be trying to contain them. If they could help thwart and invasion and then shutdown the Chinese navy, then they would basically already have won by any reasonable measure.
        longcheng 9y ago
        You understand you are talking about two major nuclear powers, don't you?
        Lafcadio 9y ago
        Not comparable at all. Protecting Taiwan has been a foundational element of American foreign policy. A Chinese invasion would signal to the world a huge shift in power and would effectively be the end of US dominance over the world stage.
        zdky 9y ago
        The only chance that would trigger China invading Taiwan is that it declares to be an fully independent country, in which case China will probably do so at any cost, even if it means full scale war with U.S. Will U.S. be ready for that?
    - liberte82 9y ago
      I don't even think the US would go to war with China over an invasion of Japan.
- yorwba 9y ago
  A Chinese civil war would spill all over the place. Look at the chaos surrounding the Syrian civil war and scale it up by at least an order of magnitude. A billion refugees trying to flee across the borders mostly in the east (where population densities are highest) would turn the surrounding countries into giant refugee camps, unless they somehow manage to close their borders. North Korea is so fragile that it would follow shortly thereafter. South Korea (a US ally) would have a huge mess on their hands. Japan (another US ally) has got an ocean to protect it, but given the huge shipping volume in the region, shiploads of refugees would try crossing anyway. So that means that the US would have even more reason to intervene than in other conflicts. I don't know how much Russia cares about it's eastern territory, but it's unlikely they'd sit around doing nothing. By now there are 4 countries with nuclear weapons involved, and I haven't even mentioned India and Pakistan, who usually don't appear to be the interventionist type, but they have a common border with China. Who knows how they might react. Basically, any war involving China is bound to be WW3 levels of bad.
  - leoc 9y ago
    While the Cuban Missile Crisis was playing out China and India were fighting a small war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War .
- walshemj 9y ago
  I think they meant a war with regional powers and/or the USA
- MollyR 9y ago
  In our highly globalized world. A civil war in China, India, Europe, Russia, or America is almost guaranteed to spill out due vast amount of global resources already being fought over in light skirmishes, proxy wars, and shows of power at various borders. In China's specific case, India and China are fighting over borders. China and the US (allies) are running into issues over resources in the South China Sea. Also Russia and the US both are increasingly their navy presence in the Pacific. It's a powder keg waiting to go off for sure.
  - nasredin 9y ago
    You forgot to include Little Rocket Man in your powder keg.

greggarious 9y ago

>it isn't unjustified to believe that this will be the downfall of China, and that we should be very worried about an upcoming war. Why - will such a civil war spill beyond China's borders?

CogitoCogito 9y ago
Personally I'm afraid it could result in China attempting an invasion of Taiwan. This could lead to war between the US (as well as other countries) and China.
- dpark 9y ago
  I doubt the US would actually go to war with China for an invasion of Taiwan. We happily gave Taiwan’s UN seat to China to establish relations and no longer have official relations with Taiwan at all. I don’t think we’d sacrifice the relationship with our largest trading partner over Taiwan. Nor do I think our politicians would sign up for a war against China except in the face of an existential threat.
  - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
    I doubt the US would not actually go to war with China over an invasion of Taiwan. At the very least, there would be huge consequences in the very quick remilitarization of Japan and the start of a new cold war.
    - dpark 9y ago
      Remember that time the US went to war with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine? An invasion of Taiwan would likely garner a similar response. Heightened tensions, international sanctions that don’t seem to do much, and yes, increased military presence in nearby allies. Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable.
      - CogitoCogito 9y ago
        I don't think that the two are really that comparable. The US is much better equipped to help thwart a Chinese invasion of Taiwan than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The invasion would be very far from an easy operation or even a sure win. And even ignoring America's historical support of Taiwan against China, if China were to successfully invade Taiwan, it would change the security situation of the area to such a degree that even military brass would be vary wary to not take a stand. > Outright war would be costly and endless and frankly unwinnable. I'm not sure why you think this is the case. If the US were to try to invade China, then yeah it would basically be unwinnable. But why would the US do that? They would only be trying to contain them. If they could help thwart and invasion and then shutdown the Chinese navy, then they would basically already have won by any reasonable measure.
        longcheng 9y ago
        You understand you are talking about two major nuclear powers, don't you?
      - Lafcadio 9y ago
        Not comparable at all. Protecting Taiwan has been a foundational element of American foreign policy. A Chinese invasion would signal to the world a huge shift in power and would effectively be the end of US dominance over the world stage.
        zdky 9y ago
        The only chance that would trigger China invading Taiwan is that it declares to be an fully independent country, in which case China will probably do so at any cost, even if it means full scale war with U.S. Will U.S. be ready for that?
  - liberte82 9y ago
    I don't even think the US would go to war with China over an invasion of Japan.
yorwba 9y ago
A Chinese civil war would spill all over the place. Look at the chaos surrounding the Syrian civil war and scale it up by at least an order of magnitude. A billion refugees trying to flee across the borders mostly in the east (where population densities are highest) would turn the surrounding countries into giant refugee camps, unless they somehow manage to close their borders. North Korea is so fragile that it would follow shortly thereafter. South Korea (a US ally) would have a huge mess on their hands. Japan (another US ally) has got an ocean to protect it, but given the huge shipping volume in the region, shiploads of refugees would try crossing anyway. So that means that the US would have even more reason to intervene than in other conflicts. I don't know how much Russia cares about it's eastern territory, but it's unlikely they'd sit around doing nothing. By now there are 4 countries with nuclear weapons involved, and I haven't even mentioned India and Pakistan, who usually don't appear to be the interventionist type, but they have a common border with China. Who knows how they might react. Basically, any war involving China is bound to be WW3 levels of bad.
- leoc 9y ago
  While the Cuban Missile Crisis was playing out China and India were fighting a small war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War .
walshemj 9y ago
I think they meant a war with regional powers and/or the USA
MollyR 9y ago
In our highly globalized world. A civil war in China, India, Europe, Russia, or America is almost guaranteed to spill out due vast amount of global resources already being fought over in light skirmishes, proxy wars, and shows of power at various borders. In China's specific case, India and China are fighting over borders. China and the US (allies) are running into issues over resources in the South China Sea. Also Russia and the US both are increasingly their navy presence in the Pacific. It's a powder keg waiting to go off for sure.
- nasredin 9y ago
  You forgot to include Little Rocket Man in your powder keg.